Saturday, October 1, 2011

Rebecca Stewart: Obama approval plummets in NH

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/30/obama-approval-plummets-in-nh/?iref=storysearch

Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) - Sixty-five percent of New Hampshire residents disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy, according to a new poll.

The American Research Group's September 2011 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll also found the president's approval rating in the first-in-the-nation primary state is pegged at 31%.

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said the notable shift in Obama's support is among undeclared, or independent voters. Sixty-seven percent of undeclared voters in the state say they disapprove of how the president has handled the economy.

Even though New Hampshire's unemployment rate is much lower than the national figure, Scala said voters here are affected by rampant displeasure in the economy.

Obama lost New Hampshire's primary to Hillary Clinton in 2008 but triumphed over John McCain here with 54% in the general election. The state carries four electoral votes.

The American Research group poll was conducted by telephone from September 25-29, surveying 547 adults in New Hampshire. The sampling error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

–CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: One in five say Social Security is unconstitutional

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/cnn-poll-one-in-five-say-social-security-is-unconstitutional/?iref=storysearch

(CNN) - Social Security reform has taken center stage in the 2012 presidential debate and one in five say the system is unconstitutional, but a new CNN/ORC International poll shows a majority of Americans have good feelings about the program.

Eight in 10 Americans think Social Security has been good for the country, with 70 percent of young adults agreeing and almost nine in 10 senior citizens saying the same.

Full results (pdf)

Though large majorities of both parties believe the 75-year-old program instituted by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt has been good, about one-third of all Republicans think it is unconstitutional.

The campaign trail has been flooded with proposals on how to reform Social Security, and while most candidates agree the system is secure for senior citizens, the big question is what will happen to young Americans who currently pay into the fund when they're ready to retire.

Most under 35 say Social Security has had no effect on their lives, but the number that say the system has been bad for them is roughly the same as the number that think it has benefitted them personally-18 to 20 percent.

The adults who agree that Social Security has been good for them personally rises with age - 85 percent of seniors say the system has benefitted them.

But Americans agree Social Security is facing a crisis or major problem. Almost one in five Americans say it is in a state of crisis and another half say it faces major problems.

Roughly half the nation supports one proposed solution, creating a private savings account that citizens could pay into - 52 percent favor allowing workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in stocks or bonds and 46 percent oppose that change.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International by telephone from September 23-25, among 1,010 adult Americans. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Julie Davis: Perry Leads Romney in Florida Poll That Spotlights Two-Man Race


September 22, 2011, 8:48 AM EDT

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Rick Perry leads Mitt Romney among Florida Republicans and they each hold double-digit advantages over the party’s other presidential contenders, according to a Quinnipiac University poll highlighting the two-man rivalry defining the race.

Perry, the Texas governor, has support from 28 percent of Florida Republicans in the survey, compared with 22 percent for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

The poll’s release today comes as Perry, Romney and the other candidates prepare to meet for their third debate this month. Tonight’s faceoff in Orlando, Florida, is likely to feature spirited exchanges between the two as Perry seeks to keep his frontrunner status and Romney vies for momentum.

Perry’s popularity in Florida -- a state that could prove pivotal next year in both the nomination and general election contests -- has surged over the last month since he entered the race, the new survey showed, while Romney’s backing has stagnated.

Perry’s margin of support has more than doubled since a Quinnipiac poll released Aug. 4, in which 13 percent of Florida Republicans backed him. He declared his candidacy on Aug. 13.

Romney drew support from 23 percent in last month’s poll, about the same as in the current survey.

The poll shows Perry with “the lead -- and the momentum -- among Florida Republicans,” Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

Obama Matchups

The results have a positive for Romney: a stronger showing against President Barack Obama than Perry. In a general election matchup in Florida, Romney is backed by 47 percent of the state’s registered voters to 40 percent for Obama, according to the poll. Obama runs slightly ahead of Perry, 44 percent to 42 percent.

The finding “reinforces Perry’s need to improve his standing with independent voters,” Brown said.

The telephone survey of 1,007 registered voters was conducted Sept. 14-19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for its entire sample. The error margin for its 374 Republican respondents was plus or minus 5.1 percent.

Other Candidates

The poll showed none of the other Republican contenders reaching double-digit levels of support. Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and the party’s 2008 vice presidential nominee who is publicly flirting with a run, drew support from 8 percent of Republicans. Businessman Herman Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia were next with 7 percent. Representative Ron Paul of Texas had 6 percent, followed by Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with 5 percent.

Were Palin to decide not to run, Perry’s support would grow to 31 percent while Romney would stay at 22 percent. Also, Florida Republicans favored Perry in a hypothetical two-man race with Romney, 46 percent to 38 percent.

The survey suggests that Perry’s much-discussed comparison of Social Security to a “Ponzi scheme” -- seized on by his Republican opponents to argue he is unelectable -- may not hurt him in the nomination race but could present him with a challenge in the general election in Florida, the state with the nation’s highest concentration of senior citizens.

While 52 percent of Republicans said it was fair to characterize the program that way, 58 percent of all registered voters said the description was unfair.

--Editors: Don Frederick, Jim Rubin.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at Jdavis159@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva@bloomberg.net

Jennifer Jacobs: Bachmann’s fall in polls makes Iowa essential


By Jason Noble and Jennifer Jacobs

Michele Bachmann’s popularity has plunged nationwide since her Iowa straw poll win last month, a development that political observers said makes Iowa all the more central to her presidential campaign.

Bachmann registered just 5 percent in one poll out this week and 8 percent in another, placing her in the thick of the field’s second tier and well behind front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. The Minnesota congresswoman polled as high as 13 percent just last month, and was thought to be a leading candidate after winning the Aug. 13 straw poll in Ames.

“Nationally, I think it is fair to say her star has lost luster,” said J. Ann Selzer, a pollster based in West Des Moines.

The reason for the drop?

Perry, mostly. The Texas governor big-footed Bachmann’s straw poll victory by entering the race the same day and appeals to a similar conservative segment of the Republican electorate. And as the three-term governor of a large state, he’s got executive experience that the congresswoman can’t match.

“Republicans are likely asking, ‘What do you get with Bachmann that you don’t get from Perry?’ The answer is not much,” Selzer explained. “What do you get with Perry that you don’t get with Bachmann? That list is long.”

Political consultants and observers said the drooping national poll numbers are one more factor making Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses the Bachmann campaign’s first priority.

Fading prominence nationwide makes a strong caucus showing a critical springboard to success in following contests, they said. It also could take a bite out of campaign fundraising, limiting her ability to campaign elsewhere.

“It’s got to start in Iowa, and if she were to fail in Iowa, it would snowball” into other early-voting states, said Davenport-based political consultant Steve Grubbs. “She’s got to do well in Iowa.”

The campaign itself has recognized as much.

On the same day the poll placing Bachmann at 5 percent was released this week, her former campaign manager and current senior adviser Ed Rollins contrasted her campaign unfavorably against those of Perry and Romney. While those candidates have money to compete in several early primary states, Rollins said, Bachmann lacks the “ability or the resources to go beyond … Iowa at this point in time.”

But aides on the ground here insist Iowa has always been the central focus of the campaign, and that they’re unperturbed by daily poll numbers and individual news stories, good or bad.

“Polls are important, but they are merely a snapshot in time, and our campaign is looking at the long-term view,” campaign spokeswoman Alice Stewart said in a statement Wednesday. “We believe the road to victory runs through Iowa and that’s why Michele will be spending a great deal of time in her home state of Iowa.”

In Des Moines on Tuesday, Bachmann acknowledged that Perry’s presence “changes the dynamic,” but projected confidence.

“We’re doing exactly what we need to do,” she said. “We’re here in Iowa meeting with people, engaging with people, listening to them and talking about what their concerns are.”

Bachmann spent two days in the state this week, visiting businesses in Sheffield, Waterloo and Des Moines.

Judging by past early-primary campaigns, popularity in September is not indicative of later success. A fresh face might surge at first, but lose support once the candidate’s views and actions receive more vetting, said Republican pollster David Winston.

At this point in the 2008 election cycle, a polling average compiled by the website Real Clear Politics showed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the national field, followed by former U.S. senator and TV actor Fred Thompson. But their support gradually eroded, and both dropped out of the race in late January.

Conversely, candidates who start slowly can catch fire later on. Mike Huckabee, the 2008 Iowa caucus winner, polled at just 4.1 percent at this point four years ago. The ultimate Republican nominee, John McCain, was running a distant third behind Giuliani and Thompson.

“I don’t think what happened to her is unusual,” said Winston, who is based in Washington, D.C. “But she clearly missed an opportunity in growing her support.”

Iowa observers have cited numerous steps Bachmann can take to hold her ground and raise her standing in Iowa, including drawing sharp distinctions between herself and her rivals, staying loose, personable and accessible at events and, most of all, keeping up appearances here straight through the Feb. 6 caucuses.

But her ability to keep a heavy Iowa schedule is at least somewhat dependent on those national polling figures. Often, slipping poll numbers can lead to slipping campaign donations, as donors come to believe a candidate may not be a viable investment.

That’s particularly true of Internet fundraising, which has become increasingly important in presidential races, Grubbs said.

Becky Beach, a top Republican fundraiser in Iowa, said Bachmann will have to work to shore up her support against declining national popularity.

“I think she’ll need to be more aggressive in fundraising in the next few weeks, but in my opinion it’s certainly not too late,” Beach said.

Bachmann is also insulated, strategists said, by her ability to raise big money from small donors.

No matter what the national polls show, she should be able to tap a committed base of supporters to keep her Iowa campaign running through next year’s caucuses, said Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines attorney who has run numerous Democratic presidential campaigns in Iowa.

“I think she will be able to raise certainly not the resources that Rick Perry can raise or that Mitt Romney can raise, but she’ll be able to raise enough to be competitive in Iowa,” Crawford said.

That’s partially because Iowa is a relatively inexpensive place to run, he said. Campaigning in Iowa is less reliant on expensive TV and radio advertising, so that a candidate with a full schedule and a full tank of gas can still make an impact.

“You don’t have to be wealthy to win in Iowa, as many people have proven,” Crawford said.

Bachmann insisted Tuesday that money wouldn’t be an issue in the months to come. “We have sufficient resources to do what we’re doing and that’s to be very competitive in this race,” she said.

Woolson joins Bachmann’s Iowa campaign team

Iowa Republican political operative Eric Woolson has been hired to lead communications for presidential candidate Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign.

In a statement, the Minnesota congresswoman said: “Eric Woolson is well-known not only by Iowa reporters and party activists but he has also earned a reputation among the national media as someone who works hard, knows his state and gets things done.

“We’re very happy to have someone with his experience and can-do attitude join us as we begin the critical push to win the Iowa caucuses.”

Woolson handled Iowa communications for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty until he dropped out of the presidential race Aug. 14.

Woolson is best known for managing the 2008 presidential campaign in Iowa for Mike Huckabee, who claimed a surprise second-place in the Iowa straw poll in summer 2007 and then surged to victory in the caucuses in winter 2008.

He also worked for George W. Bush’s presidential campaign, Sioux City Republican Bob Vander Plaats’ gubernatorial campaign, Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ congressional campaign and U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s re-election campaign.

Woolson started his career in newspapers, including time at the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. He was later press secretary for Republican Gov. Terry Branstad’s first administration.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Ali Weinberg: Perry, Romney running neck-and-neck in SC

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/20/7862216-perry-romney-running-neck-and-neck-in-sc

By NBC's Ali Weinberg

COLUMBIA, SC -- Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are running neck-and-neck among Republicans who are planning to vote in next year's South Carolina primary, according to a new Winthrop University poll released today.

Perry gets 31% and Romney 27% -- within the poll’s margin of error.

Poll director Scott Huffmon said the results suggest that Perry has been making strong inroads (especially with Tea Party supporters) since getting into the race in mid-August, and that Romney’s support in the state extends beyond his initial name-recognition strength.

“Rick Perry has a lot of attention down here. I think Mitt Romney has a little more support than people are giving him credit for,” said Huffmon, a political science professor at Winthrop. “Both should be looking at [these numbers] as a way of trying to tweak their strategy and grow their base.”

Romney has been far less present in South Carolina than Perry, whose wife Anita will be here tomorrow presiding over the Perry headquarters’ ribbon-cutting ceremony.

While Huffmon advised against overstating the “bandwagon effect,” he noted that South Carolinians do tend to coalesce around the nationally anointed candidate, given that it has voted for every Republican nominee in the primary since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

“In general, things that are liked by conservatives in New Mexico or in Wyoming are the same kinds of things that are liked by conservatives in South Carolina,” he said.

The Winthrop poll showed no other GOP candidates with double-digit support, with “Not Sure” being the next-highest choice at 11% in the trial heat. Businessman Herman Cain received 8% (a six-point jump since the last Winthrop poll in April) and Sarah Palin got 6%.

Neither the Perry nor the Romney campaign would comment on the poll’s results.

Among the rest: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich got 5%; Rep. Ron Paul 4%; Rep. Michele Bachmann 3% (about where she was in April); and both former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Given the deflation of some candidates who might siphon off Perry support -- especially Bachmann -- Huffmon suggested the Romney camp would be wise to recalculate its “wait and see” strategy in the Palmetto State.

“I think Romney was sitting back, hoping that Tea Party supporters would tear each other apart in the Perry vs. Bachmann vs. Palin vs. Cain camps. But this may be a sign that he may need to wade in and take some of the air out of Perry’s balloon.”

The poll also tested GOP support for South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who holds a coveted primary endorsement. Her approval rating among Republicans is 69%, with 18% disapproving.

Regarding South Carolina Republicans’ views on President Obama, a majority -- 74% -- said the term “socialist” described him well.

Huffmon said that demonstrated more that the language of “conservative elites” like pundits and radio hosts were trickling down to everyday Republicans, rather than voters’ beliefs that Obama fits the textbook definition of a socialist.

Moreover, 30% of Republicans in the poll also incorrectly said they believed Obama belonged to the Muslim faith. And 36% said they thought Obama was probably or definitely born in another country. Yet that percentage decreased since the last Winthrop poll in April, taken before President Obama released his “long-form” birth certificate.

The Winthrop University poll was conducted from September 11-18 and surveyed 1,552 registered voters from South Carolina. For the majority of the questions, which were asked only of Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the results came from 596 such voters and the margin of error was +/- 4.01%. For those questions asked only of those who “definitely” plan to vote in the 2012 primary, the margin of error was +/- 4.57%.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Julie Davis: Republicans Blamed Most for Ineffective Government

September 15, 2011, 9:29 AM EDT

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Catherine Dodge

(Updates with comment from Lee in eighth paragraph.)

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- A majority of Americans are angry and frustrated with elected officials, and more than four in 10 have given up hope in Washington’s ability to help them get through the economic slump.

“It’s the bickering that I can’t stand, and they’re constantly beating their chests and saying, ‘I’m not budging -- you better,’” said Rose Hutchinson, 40, a technical analyst from Antioch, Illinois. “They’ve lost sight of what’s really the issue. It’s not about Democrats and Republicans. It’s about Americans not having jobs.”

More than a third of Americans say they “wish” President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans would compromise, while 28 percent say they are frustrated by the political fighting, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 9-12. More than a quarter say they are “angry and want to throw them all out.”

The findings highlight the depths of public ire directed at Washington after months of gridlock and brinksmanship between Obama and House Republicans, a dynamic that could harm both sides in next year’s elections. Only 8 percent said they thought elected officials were doing the best they could.

Evidence that voters are angry enough to kick out their own party was apparent Tuesday night when Republican Bob Turner won a special election in a U.S. House district in New York City with voter registration weighted toward the Democrats. “We are unhappy. I’m telling you. I am the messenger. Heed us,” Turner said in a victory speech aimed at Washington.

Blame Game

Hutchinson, an independent who said she had never voted before she cast her 2008 ballot for Obama, now blames the president for Washington’s dysfunction. “He promised the world -- he hasn’t delivered a dang thing,” Hutchinson said. “Shame on me for being an idiot and believing it.”

Most unhappy Americans blame Republicans for the problems in Washington. The survey shows that 39 percent of poll respondents blame either Obama or congressional Democrats while 45 percent pinned responsibility on congressional Republicans.

“You can’t take any one poll in isolation,” U.S. Senator Mike Lee, a Utah Republican, told Bloomberg Television today when asked about the numbers. The poll result “highlights a broad dissatisfaction among the American people with the way their government has been operating,” he said.

The poll shows anger and frustration highest among Republicans -- 62 percent of whom described themselves that way -- and independents, 58 percent of whom did. It’s also prevalent among Democrats, with 41 percent expressing those sentiments.

Political Games

“I’ve been a registered Republican for 50 years or more, but I don’t like what they are doing,” said Ray DiPietro, 78, a retiree who lives in Minoa, New York. Republicans “are more concerned about getting Obama out of office than with making things right,” he said.

DiPietro said he gets several e-mails a day from Republican supporters who put Obama down and “tear him apart, and that’s no way for grownups to talk.” The retiree, who supported passage of Obama’s health-care law, said there’s “no way in hell” he will vote for a Republican in 2012.

Indianapolis Republican Nicole Olin shares his angst.

“They seem like they are unwilling to budge as far as tax increases,” said Olin, 31, a bank supervisor. “If this country is ever going to get out of trouble, they are going to have to compromise.”

Undecided Voter

Olin said families have to cut spending and bring in more income in tough times, and the government should do the same. She hasn’t decided how she will vote in next year’s presidential race.

“I do put the majority of the blame on the Republicans, because they seem to be the least willing to give up anything,” she said. “Just because a majority votes you in doesn’t mean you don’t have to compromise in one way, shape or form to make sure you do what’s good for everyone.”

A driver of the public’s disillusionment with Washington was the debt-ceiling battle earlier this year that took the nation to the brink of default before a compromise was reached in early August.

Of those who described themselves as angry, frustrated or yearning for compromise, 71 percent said the debt-limit debate intensified those feelings.

“There’s nobody, it appears to me, that’s interested in the benefit of the country or of the people,” said Don Himmelright, 70, a retired government worker from Las Vegas. “They’re all interested in themselves and their jobs.”

‘Fed Up’

Himmelright said he had been a registered Democrat for 49 years before switching his affiliation to independent last year out of disgust with Obama, whom he supported in 2008.

While he blames Republicans most for the problems he sees in Washington, he says he’s “fed up” with Obama and the two top congressional Democrats: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.

Himmelright called the battle over borrowing authority -- during which Republicans refused to consider tax increases to contribute to debt reduction -- “a joke.”

Obama and lawmakers “had the opportunity to do great things, but because of this grandstanding and refusing to entertain any kind of a tax increase, they just missed their chance.”

The poll of 997 adults was conducted by Selzer & Co., based in Des Moines, Iowa, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Majority Are ‘Hopeful’

Even with the anger and frustration expressed by the majority of respondents, 54 percent described themselves as “hopeful” that Washington would get something done in the next year that would help them or their family economically. Forty- three percent said they “have given up hope” that Washington could positively impact them.

Karen Blixt, 58, a musician from Albany, California, said she is among those optimists. A Democrat, she blamed Republicans for obstructing Obama’s agenda and was equally scathing of the president, who she said had abandoned his principles in search of a compromise with unreasonable opponents.

“What I really wish is that Obama would put his foot down,” Blixt said.

Republicans were most likely to have given up hope -- with 56 percent saying they had, compared with 41 percent who were still hopeful. Independents were split between 49 percent who said they were hopeful and 48 percent who said they had abandoned hope. Seventy-three percent of Democrats said they still had hope.

“It’s just too hard to believe our democracy could get any worse,” Blixt said.

--With assistance from Jeff Bliss in Washington and Betty Liu in New York. Editors: Jeanne Cummings, Justin Blum

To contact the reporters on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at jdavis159@bloomberg.net; Catherine Dodge in Washington at cdodge1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: President gets no bounce from speech, but disapproval rating peaks



CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Washington (CNN) - President Barack Obama didn't score any political points with his speech on jobs to a joint session of Congress last Thursday. According to a new CNN/ORC International poll released Tuesday, the president's approval rating stands at 43 percent, virtually unchanged from the 45 percent approval rating in the previous CNN poll.

Although this is not the lowest number of those who say they approve of how Obama is handling his job-he reached 42 percent one year ago-the number who disapprove of the president reached its highest during his presidency in the poll.

The survey reveals that 55 percent say they do not approve of how Obama is handling his duties in the White House and the number of Americans who think he is a strong leader has dropped to a new low.

"A familiar pattern in public opinion on Obama again asserts itself," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Americans don't like Obama's track record on major issues while they continue to like him personally."

Less than one in ten think Obama's policies have made the economy better, although another four in ten credit them with preventing the economy from being even worse than it is today. Thirty-seven percent say that Obama has made economic conditions worse and 15 percent think his policies have had no effect.

The president is on the road this week touting a new policy–his $447 billion jobs proposal-that he's encouraged Congress to take up and pass. With stops in Richmond, Virginia last week, Columbus, Ohio Tuesday, and North Carolina on Wednesday, the road trip appears to be doubling as a swing through battleground states.

But with more than half the nation saying Obama cannot manage the government effectively in the poll and no bounce in public opinion following his speech, the president may have his work cut out for him selling his plan to the public.

There is some good news for Obama in the poll. Among Democrats, his standing has improved. Opinions among the Democratic base have turned the corner after a drop in the wake of the debt ceiling agreement. The number of Democrats who wanted the party to renominate Obama dropped to an all-time low of 70 percent in early August, but it's on the rise now-72 percent in our last poll and 76 percent in the current survey.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International from September 9-11 among 1,038 adults by telephone. It has an overall sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.