Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: Economy still number 1 worry

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/23/cnn-poll-economy-still-number-1-priority/

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CNN Political Unit

(CNN) -The economy is the top concern for Americans, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll released Friday, and half name unemployment as the most important issue related to the economy.

With just three in ten saying things are going well in the country today and 70% saying they are going badly, economic issues are still the main priority for the country this holiday season.

Fifty-seven percent of the nation says the economy is the most important issue facing the country now, with the deficit listed a distant second at 16%.

When asked to name the country's biggest economic problem, 51% of Americans chose unemployment, and 27% named the deficit as their top economic concern, placing it second, as well.

But as heated debate over a payroll tax cut extensions take center stage in a congressional standoff, the poll indicates only seven percent of Americans list taxes as the most important economic problem in the country.

The CNN poll was conducted by telephone by ORC International from Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, among 1,015 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: Americans agree on bringing troops home from Iraq

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/21/cnn-poll-americans-agree-on-bringing-troops-home-from-iraq/

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CNN Political Unit

(CNN) – Most Americans agree with the decision to end the war in Iraq, according to a CNN/ORC International poll released Wednesday. Almost eight in ten said they support removal of combat troops from that country by the end of this year.

And although 96% are proud of U.S. troops who served in Iraq, just one in three consider the war a victory and more than half call it a stalemate.

Full results

President Obama announced the full withdrawal of troops from Iraq by the year's end in October. Now, two-thirds say they oppose the war and more think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to Iraq in the first place 53% to 46% over those who do not think it was a mistake.

Americans are similarly divided over whether they agree with then-Sen. Barack Obama's opinion that it was a "dumb" decision to send troops to Iraq in 2003 - 51% say it was dumb and 45% say it was smart.

More than half think the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, but about half say U.S. involvement in the war has had a positive effect on life in Iraq.

When it comes to the U.S., half the nation believes the Iraq war had a negative effect on life here and seven out of 10 say the money spent on the war is one reason for the economic problems facing the country today.

"After the Vietnam war, commentators noted a wariness among the U.S. public to support the use of military force, dubbing it the 'Vietnam syndrome,'" said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Roughly half the public believed that war was an outdated way of settling international conflicts even into the 1980s, but only 32% of Americans feel that way today, with 66% saying that war is sometimes necessary - a minority view after Vietnam. At the same time, seven in ten believe that U.S. military force should only be used as a last resort, and that may be the more lasting impact on public opinion of the war in Iraq."

Almost four in ten American say the U.S. only accomplished some of its goals in Iraq, but almost eight in ten say we could not achieve any more no matter how long troops remained in that country.

The CNN poll was conducted by telephone by ORC International from Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, among 1,015 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

- CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Alex Roarty: Gingrich Falling? It's An Old Story This Race

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2011/12/gingrich-falling-its-an-old-st.php?mrefid=site_search

By Alex Roarty

Is Newt Gingrich losing his place at the head of the GOP presidential field? The fate suffered by previous Republican front-runners suggests his support might be about to fall off a cliff.

Polling data assembled by my colleague Scott Bland shows a similar timeline for the candidates who momentarily claimed the race's front-runner's mantle: Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Georgia businessman Herman Cain (and to a lesser degree, Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann) each rocketed past their opponents, led for about a month, and eventually collapsed.

Take Perry. According to polling from CNN/ORC, the governor rose quickly to race-leading 27 percent in late August, just weeks after officially becoming a candidate. He peaked a few weeks later at 30 percent, the poll found, and held at 28 percent in late September, roughly a month after the first CNN/ORC poll found him in first place. But by mid-October, the Texan had slipped to 13 percent.

Cain's campaign followed the same patter pattern. As Perry fell, the former pizza magnate reached 25 percent in a mid-October poll from CNN/ORC. A month afterward, battered by accusations from multiple women of sexual misconduct, he fell to 14 percent. Bachmann never rose to the heights of either man, but her time as a favorite of the tea party (the voters who have propelled both Perry and Cain) also lasted for roughly one month.

So, when did the former speaker of the House reach the top of the Republican race? About a month ago, when he reached 24 percent in a CNN/ORC poll conducted from Nov. 18 to Nov. 20. And there are signs his numbers are now dropping precipitously. Gallup's daily tracking poll reported his support has dropped nearly 10 points in a week, from a high of 37 percent on Dec. 8 to 28 percent this weekend. Over the same time, his lead over his Mitt Romney has shrunk from 14 percentage points to just 4 points now.

If the path of his predecessors is any indication, Gingrich's numbers will continue their rapid descent. Perry's support halved in a matter of weeks, and he now sits in single digits in most national polls. Cain's share of the vote was quickly plummeting to similar territory before he suspended his campaign. Perry, just like Bachmann, was unable to staunch implosion, and has yet to recover from the collapse.

The month-long staying power makes sense: It gives enough opportunity for the news media and opponents to scrutinize the newly christened front-runner for flaws (a process already begun in earnest with Gingrich) and thus far many hardline conservatives have been disappointed after getting a closer look. Many of them, especially Perry, have withered under the harsh glare during debates and on the campaign trail.

Gingrich's candidacy does have several variables that could complicate whether he too falls just as hard. For one, it's not readily apparent which candidate conservative voters could flock to instead. In every other case, when a GOP candidate flopped there was a concurrent rise in one of their rivals. Bachmann was succeeded by Perry, who was supplanted by Cain, who gave way to Gingrich.

Voters could re-examine one of those candidates, or could they look to someone new like former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum or ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. So far, none of those candidates appear to have much momentum, either in the news or in the polls. Texas Rep. Ron Paul could benefit in Iowa - and that would have huge implications for the Republican race - but he has yet to rise very high in national polls.

Despite being hammered over past ideological deviations and receiving $1.6 million to advise Freddie Mac, Gingrich has also yet to stumble as Perry did during the debates. He also hasn't faced accusations nearly as grave as the ones Cain did; his long history with the GOP means many voters were likely familiar with Gingrich's past in a way they weren't for Perry or Cain. And his decline might happen slow enough that he can still hang on to win Iowa, which would re-ignite his candidacy.

If that happens, he'll have walked a path different than other fallen GOP candidates.