WORKSHOP ON POLITICAL POLLING
June 17-18, 2011
American University Butler Board Room
Experts from American University’s Political Communication Master’s program as well as pollsters and journalists from around the country will cover a range of issues that are essential to writing about polls. This workshop is made possible through a generous grant from the McCormick Foundation and the Poynter Institute.
Topics Covered
What is needed to craft an accurate and interesting polling story?
How and why campaign polling differs from public polling
Are polls taken a year before an election meaningless?
How to craft and assess poll questions
How to determine the likely electorate
What does margin of error mean and how should it be factored into the reporting of poll results?
How to assess new technologies in political polling (computerized/IVR polls, online polls, cell phones, social networks) that are changing the ways polls are conducted.
What are the uses and abuses of focus groups and other qualitative research?
What methodologies are needed to reach specific groups, young people, new voters, Latinos, independents, et al
FRIDAY June 17
9:15 am Coffee and light breakfast, registration
9:45 Welcome
• Prof. Lenny Steinhorn, AU Public Communication Division Chair
• Dotty Lynch, Director of MA Program in Political Communication (joint program of AU Schools of Communication and Public Affairs)
• Adell Crowe, Strategic Program & Events coordinator
10-10:45 Keynote: Issues and Trends in Political Polling as we head into 2012
Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post, Pollster.com
11-noon The Big Picture
Moderated by AU Assistant Professor Maria Ivancin
Why campaigns and the media do polling, focus groups and other research
David Winston, The Winston Group
What kind of research are or should the campaigns be doing now. Using polling for campaign strategy, fundraising and setting expectations.
Lymari Morales, Managing News Editor, Gallup.com
Why Gallup and news organizations do polling for the public. How is it different from campaign polling? Is there too much focus on the horse race and not enough on issues and policy? What about daily tracking of candidates and issues? How useful and reliable is it?
12:15-1:30 Lunch, Mark Mellman of the Mellman Group
Why the Public Polls in Nevada were Wrong: Mistakes to Learn From
From a paper by Harry Reid pollster, Mark Mellman:
“Lots of excuses have been offered for the inaccuracy of the public polls, from margin of error, to late shifts in the race and under-sampling Latinos. It should be clear that it was far from impossible to get this race ‘right.’
“The public polls in Nevada were wrong because their methodology was fundamentally flawed. We were able to reproduce results close to those of the public polls by replicating those flaws and measuring the impact.”
1:50 Afternoon Sessions Overview
Homework, the Polling Hotline and Award
2-3 Why Question Wording Matters
Moderated by AU Associate Professor of Government, Candace Nelson, author of “The Myth of the Independent Voter”
Why how you ask the question about partisanship will determine and often change the analysis.
Geoff Garin, President, Peter Hart Research
3-4 Why Who and How We Interview Matters
Moderated by AU SOC Executive in Residence and Director MA Program in Political Communication Dotty Lynch
Sampling and Techniques (Cells, Online, RDD, IVR social media, interpreting margin of error)
Randy Gutermuth, Vice President, American Viewpoint
4:15 Tips on assessing and reporting on polls from the pros
Moderated by Lynn Sweet, Washington Bureau chief, Chicago Sun Times.
Reporting on polls and how to deal with leaked polls
Jennifer Duffy, Senior Editor, Cook Political Report.
What to look for in a poll and why to be wary of many polls being done today.
Janet Elder, Editor, News Surveys and Election Analysis, New York Times
Reporting standards and what makes a good poll story
5:15 Wrap-up and Homework assignment
5:30 -7 Cocktail Reception, Founders Room, SIS Building AU
SATURDAY June 18
9 am Coffee and Light Breakfast
9:15 Review of Homework assignment (AU faculty)
10:15 Special Topics: Polling special constituencies
Moderated by AU SOC Executive in Residence and Director MA Program in Political Communication Dotty Lynch
Likely primary and caucus voters, Hispanics and new voters
Ann Selzer, Pollster, Selzer and Company, pollster for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg News.
How to get the likely electorate right in Iowa and other primary states
Mark Lopez, Associate Director, Pew Hispanic Center
Specific methodologies for polling Latinos and the need for bilingual questionnaires and interviewers
11:15 Wrap-up
Where do we go from here: The Polling Hotline and the Award, Adell Crowe and Dotty Lynch
