Updated:
April 26, 2012 | 3:00 p.m.
On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?
DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)
Average: 7.1
Slight chance (1-3): 0%
Moderate chance (4-6): 31%
Strong chance (7-10): 69%
Moderate chance (4-6): 31%
Strong chance (7-10): 69%
Moderate chance (4-6)
“We will be returning to a 2000 or 2004 Electoral College squeaker election.”
“McCain won 47 percent. If you think Romney won’t win that same number, you’re a fool. I call that a close election.”
“The voters who matter like him, are disappointed in the job he is doing, and have serious doubts about the apparent Republican nominee. On these facts, the nod goes to the devil they know.”
“It’ll be close, but Obama’s strength with nonwhite voters may be enough to eke it out over Romney.”
“As long as the Fed keeps up the slow and steady support, Obama will have a positive-trajectory economy to win on.”
“Romney is such a lousy candidate. Despite a long list of reasons why Obama shouldn’t win, he will.”
Strong chance (7-10)
“Close, yes. But this isn’t the year of the millionaire corporate raider.”
“Economy rebounding, Mitt’s disastrous primary performance, and the head-to-head matchup all work in his favor.”
“Demographics are destiny, and they really favor Obama, who also understands them.”
“By November no one worried about their job will believe Romney is worried about their job, too.”
“Mitt Romney could barely get the Republican base excited. It smells like 1996, but who knows, it might even be 1984.”
“Immigration, the Ryan plan, the ‘Buffett Rule,’ Osama [bin Laden], and GM. Not as close as people think.”
On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?
REPUBLICANS (99 VOTES)
Average: 5
Slight chance (1-3): 11%
Moderate chance (4-6): 76%
Strong chance (7-10): 13%
Moderate chance (4-6): 76%
Strong chance (7-10): 13%
Slight chance (1-3)
“Tough to win with an economy that’s softening once more [and] being overseen by a guy who never worked in the private sector.”
“If the election is about his record, the president can’t win. He will try hard to avoid running on his record, and he might succeed.”
Moderate chance (4-6)
“I’m starting to sense another 1980.”
“This election can truly go either way—and could make 2000 look like a landslide.”
“The lessening of the economic headwinds have made this race a virtual toss-up.”
“If it is a referendum on Obama and the economy, Obama loses.”
“The ‘black swan’ (unforeseen major event) will likely come from abroad, melting Obama’s numbers. He is simply out of his depth.”
“[The] election is a referendum on his economic policies. They are not that great.”
“The demographics are on his side. By the fall, we Republicans will be wondering what happened to the Southwest swing states.”
“The Republicans have the potential of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory—have to try to avoid further alienation of women and Hispanics, but economy will continue to be the issue.”
Strong chance (7-10)
“His strategy is to lay the blame for the economic crisis on the Bush administration, offer no solutions for the future, and draw out Republicans on their extreme social agenda—a trap they will fall into with relative ease.”
How do you think the immigration issue will affect your party’s prospects in November?
DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)
Help a lot: 34%
Help a little: 47%
No effect: 14%
Hurt a little: 5%
Hurt a lot: 0%
Help a little: 47%
No effect: 14%
Hurt a little: 5%
Hurt a lot: 0%
Help a lot
“Mitt’s ‘deport-them-all’ primary position will be hard to walk back.”
“Can you say Nevada, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico?”
“If I was a Republican playing the long game, I’d stop trying to throw people out of the country who’ve lived here a long time. The long-run trend is bad for Rs.”
“Put bluntly, Latinos think Republicans hate them.”
“This issue will pay dividends for Democrats for generations to come.”
Help a little
“Would be more except for the increasing evangelism of Hispanic-Americans eligible to vote.”
“Immigration has the potential to inspire turnout on the Democratic side. While the same might be true for Republicans, the turnout would not be coming from a lower-turnout group.”
“Latino voters in some states may be upset at the Republicans’ posturing on immigration during the primary season, but it is not a game-changer. Let’s face it—it’s not like Republicans were planning on winning 40 percent of the Latino vote in any scenario.”
“It would help more if we were actually working to advance the solution more.”
“Will be crushing for Romney when he’s hit with million [dollars] of ads on Hispanic TV relating his love for the Arizona immigration law.”
No effect
“It’s a polarizing issue, and those on both sides have their minds made up. They’re not persuadable, and it’s unlikely anything will happen on it anyway.”
Hurt a little
“We should have done more on the issue.”
How do you think the immigration issue will affect your party’s prospects in November?
REPUBLICANS (100 VOTES)
Help a lot: 1%
Help a little: 8%
No effect: 30%
Hurt a little: 54%
Hurt a lot: 7%
Help a little: 8%
No effect: 30%
Hurt a little: 54%
Hurt a lot: 7%
Help a lot
“It rallies our base and reminds voters that Obama has promised—but done nothing—for three years.”
No effect
“It’s the economy, still, stupid.”
“This issue cuts sharply ... both ways.”
“The immigration opportunity sailed long ago for Republicans. Bad economy has slowed the flow. Zero impact.”
“Did it help John McCain any to be strongly pro-immigration?”
Hurt a little
“Romney should have been the Republican to defend the American Dream, but he pandered to the fringeinstead. Very disappointing, and now he’ll pay a price.”
“2012 may be the last national election that Republicans can win without having addressed broad immigration reform successfully. Has to get done.”
“Our saving grace is that the economy is far more important than immigration, even with Hispanic voters.”
“Republicans are on the wrong side of history on immigration, but the Romney team has time to fix the problem.”
“Romney needs a ‘compassionate conservative’ answer on this. Otherwise, Obama’s scare tactics will hurt him badly with Hispanics.”
“A little now, a lot in 20 years and forever after that.”
“We will find out.… If we lose Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, the answer changes to a lot.”
Hurt a lot
“Republicans have chosen to be hostile to the idea of the melting pot. Historically, nationalistic zealotry has always had a backlash in presidential elections.”
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Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.
This article appeared in the Saturday, April 28, 2012 edition of National Journal.
