Thursday, October 27, 2011

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: Cain takes top position, Perry falls to fifth

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/25/poll-cain-takes-top-position-perry-falls-to-fifth/

(CNN) - Businessman and conservative radio talk show host Herman Cain came out on top in a CBS/New York Times poll measuring support among likely Republican primary voters that was released Tuesday.

In the first poll since CNN's Western Republican debate, Cain is ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by four percentage points, within the sampling error for the survey.

One quarter of GOP primary voters support Cain, who has surged in national polls recently due in part, perhaps, to his easy-to-understand "9-9-9" economic plan and consistent debate performances. Romney received 21% support.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich netted 10% followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at eight percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has fallen to fifth place after early stumbles in candidate debates. He's also been hemmed in with stinging critiques from rivals on his positions regarding immigration and his support for a mandatory HPV vaccine.

Perry received 6% support in the poll, half the amount he received in early October.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has also fallen out of favor it seems, after winning the critical Iowa straw poll in August. With two percent support, the congresswoman has struggled to stay relevant as public bickering between former and current staffers exploded in New Hampshire.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman tied at one percent.

But with 14% of likely Republican primary-goers undecided and roughly four out of five saying it is too early to say for sure who they back for the nomination, a chunk of potential supporters is still in play.

The poll was conducted among 1,650 adults by telephone including 455 voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The overall sampling error for the survey is plus or minus two percentage points. The sampling error for the subgroup of likely Republican primary voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Kim Geiger: Gallup: Obama's approval rating hits another record low

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-gallup-average-20111021,0,7921877.story

President Obama’s average approval rating sank to a new low of 41% in the 11th financial quarter of his term, according to a new analysis of Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

That number is down six percentage points from Obama’s 10th quarter average, and is the lowest 11th quarter average posted by a sitting president since Jimmy Carter, who lost his reelection bid in 1980. (Carter’s approval average that quarter was 31%.)

Obama’s average approval rating over his entire term is now 50%.

Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones notes that while the 11th quarter was so far Obama's worst, the 12th- and 13th- quarter averages will be better indicators of his reelection prospects. Those averages historically “give a strong indication of whether he will win a second term,” Jones wrote in a summary of Gallup’s findings.

Of 262 presidential quarters in which Gallup has calculated average presidential job approval ratings, the 11th quarter of Obama’s term ranks 220th.

kim.geiger@latimes.com