Kim Geiger: Poll: Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/17/news/la-pn-poll-scott-brown-leads-elizabeth-warren-in-massachusetts-20120217

February 17, 2012|By Kim Geiger

Reporting from Washington — Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, whose upset victory in early 2010 marked the moment when many started to take the tea party movement seriously, leads his likely 2012 Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by 9 percentage points, according to a new survey of voters.

Brown has 49% support compared with Warren’s 40%, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday.

Warren, whose reputation as a consumer advocate has made her the darling of progressive activists, holds a commanding lead over her Democratic challengers for the party’s nomination, which will be decided in the primary election Sept. 6.

But she has been unable to win the support of independents, who make up more than half of Massachusetts’ voters. Sixty percent of independents support Brown while 28% support Warren.

“Scott Brown’s popularity and appeal are overpowering the efforts of Elizabeth Warren, who struggles to introduce herself to the larger pool of Massachusetts voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Warren’s support does not have traction among independents.”

Nearly two-thirds of independents also believe there is a benefit to having one Democratic and one Republican senator representing Massachusetts. As a whole, 60% of general election voters agreed that split party representation was beneficial.

Sen. John F. Kerry, a Democrat, is the senior senator from the state. Brown won the seat occupied for nearly half a century by the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, a Democrat.

Brown is also well-liked by voters, with 52% giving him a favorable rating compared with 28% unfavorable. Warren’s favorability is considerably lower -- 35% -- but like Brown, just 28% view her unfavorably.

The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 11-15 using live telephone interviews.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Joshua Miller: Massachusetts: Scott Brown Up in New Senate Poll

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-brown-up-in-new-senate-poll/

By Joshua Miller
Posted at 9:25 a.m. on Feb. 17

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) led presumptive Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren by 9 points in a new poll of registered voters. Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Brown, while 40 percent said they would vote for Warren. Nine percent were undecided.

Among independents, a voting bloc likely to decide the tossup contest, Brown led Warren 60 percent to 28 percent.

Fifty-two percent of those polled had a favorable opinion of Brown while 28 percent had an unfavorable impression of him; 17 percent had heard of him but were undecided. Thirty-five percent of those polled had a favorable view of Warren, while 28 percent had an unfavorable impression of her; 24 percent had heard of her but were undecided.

The Suffolk University/7 News poll was conducted Feb. 11-15 using live telephone interviews to landlines and cellphones. The poll surveyed 600 Bay State registered voters. The margin of error was 4 points.

A poll earlier this week that had the race essentially tied was of likely voters, while this poll was of the broader universe of registered voters. While the earlier survey polled the Senate ballot test after asking about the favorability of various public figures, this poll had the favorability questions as well as a series of other questions before asking for whom respondents would vote for if the election were held today.

Joshua Miller: Massachusetts: Poll Has Senate Race Essentially Tied

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-poll-has-senate-race-essentially-tied/

By Joshua Miller Posted at 2:04 p.m. on Feb. 14

A new poll found Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) and presumptive Democratic nominee Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren essentially tied in the tossup Senate race.

Warren led Brown by 3 points in a horse-race matchup, 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error. Eleven percent of those polled didn’t know for whom they would vote.

Both candidates are well-known in the state. Fifty percent of those polled had a favorable view of Brown while 29 percent had an unfavorable impression of him; 15 percent had heard of him but were undecided. Thirty-nine percent of those polled had a favorable view of Warren, while 29 percent had an unfavorable impression of her; 15 percent had heard of her but were undecided.

Warren, who grew up in Oklahoma, is seen by only 13 percent of those surveyed as having “deep roots here in Massachusetts.” Brown gets 39 percent on that question.

But 34 percent thought Warren “seems to be gaining momentum lately for the November election,” while only 24 percent felt that way about Brown.

The WBUR poll, conducted by MassINC Polling Group, surveyed 503 likely voters by land line and cellphone and had a margin of error of 4.4 points. It was conducted Feb. 6-9.

Alex Roarty: Polls Suggest Contraception Divides Voters

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/polls-suggest-contraception-divides-voters-20120214

By Alex Roarty

Updated: February 14, 2012 | 6:29 p.m.
February 14, 2012 | 6:11 p.m.

Two new polls released on Tuesday indicate the contraception-coverage controversy currently roiling the White House might not be as politically damaging as critics have claimed.

The Obama administration’s decision to make all insurers provide birth control free of charge to patients drew a firestorm of criticism, spearheaded by the Catholic Church and Republican leaders who said it interfered with religious objections to contraception. The issue has become a centerpiece of the GOP presidential campaign.

By Friday, Obama announced that insurance companies -- not the religious groups themselves -- would cover the cost of contraception. It did little to quell criticism, but the White House said it was not meant to do so.

And it appears the issue isn’t a clear political loser for Obama: A poll from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life reports that the issue closely divides the American public. Of Americans who have heard of the controversy, 44 percent said the religious groups should be required to cover contraception. Forty-eight percent of Americans said religious employers should be exempted from providing birth control as part of their health insurance coverage for workers.

Roughly six in 10 Americans have heard about the exemption, the poll found.

Among Catholics, the numbers are far worse for Obama: 55 percent say an exemption should be granted, compared to 39 percent who don’t.

But even if they disagree with the president, they have yet to let it affect their overall view of him. A Gallup poll also released on Tuesday showed the president’s standing among Catholics last week stood at 46 percent, just a three-point drop from the previous week. That was nearly the same level of support Obama enjoyed among non-Catholics, which stood at 47 percent.

The contraception mandate is a sensitive issue for Democrats because Catholics are typically a swing vote in general elections. The disgruntlement of several high-profile Obama allies, including Sen.Robert Casey of Pennsylvania and former DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, who is running for Senate in Virginia, proved Obama’s original decision had taken a toll on the community.

But Tuesday’s polls cast doubt on whether the issue will be an effective political wedge for Republicans in the fall.

The Pew poll surveyed 1,501 adults from Feb. 8 through Feb. 12 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. It sampled 337 Catholics with a sample error of 6.5 percentage points.

Gallup surveyed 775 Catholics from Feb. 6 through Feb. 12, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.