Herman Cain’s once-surging popularity in Iowa has plummeted in the wake of an allegation of a 13-year extramarital affair, leaving him at single-digit support with the Iowa caucuses just over a month away.
Cain is now at 8 percent among likely Republican caucusgoers, The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll shows. That’s down from 23 percent in late October.
The former Godfather’s Pizza CEO is to huddle with his family late today as he reassesses his bid for the White House.
Although Cain has denied the affair, bad feelings about him doubled during the time the poll was in the field, from Sunday through Wednesday.
On a question about the candidate most likely to have a scandal in the White House, Cain’s numbers rose from 25 percent at the start of polling, then to 36 percent, and to 47 percent at the end of polling.
Asked which candidate caucusgoers most want to see in person, Cain was at 22 percent in a two-day rolling average of Sunday and Monday polling. That fell to 8 percent for the Tuesday-Wednesday results.
Poll respondent Carol Bohlen, 61, a retired Fort Dodge resident, said she wouldn’t support Cain if he were the nominee because she questions his knowledge of the issues.
“You have to know all the issues, foreign, domestic everything,” she said. Plus, “I just feel there’s too much coming out about his past, and I don’t think that would be very presidential.”
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers Nov. 27-30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
On the second of four days of calling for the poll, Atlanta businesswoman Ginger White went public with her accusation of the affair, saying, “It was pretty simple. It wasn’t complicated. I was aware that he was married. And I was also aware I was involved in a very inappropriate situation, relationship.”
Cain’s support was slumping before her allegation. On Oct. 31, accusations of sexual harassment first surfaced involving his tenure as head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s. He stumbled in explaining U.S. policy toward Libya in a meeting with a Wisconsin newspaper’s editorial board, and his foreign policy responses in subsequent debates were criticized as shallow.
On Sunday, the first day of polling, his support stood at 12 percent. That dropped steadily over the four-day poll to 4 percent Wednesday.
Respondents blast knowledge of issues
Poll respondents contacted by the Register on Thursday said the major drawback is that Cain doesn’t have a handle on important issues. But having five women essentially call him a liar isn’t helping, they said.
The new poll shows 27 percent of likely caucusgoers think he’s the “least knowledgeable” of the 2012 field, topping all candidates in that category.
Farmer Chris Mason, 24, of Early, who named Cain as the candidate he likes least, soured on Cain’s ideas for the economy.
“I’m just not 100 percent sold on some of the policies that he’s offered, 9-9-9 being one of them,” he said, referring to Cain’s much-touted tax-cut plan.
Mason isn’t too concerned about whether the sex-related allegations are true or not.
“Everyone’s entitled to their personal life, but I see that as a stumbling point for him with specific blocs of the voting demographic,” he said.
After the first round of sex-related allegations, Cain’s support initially held. Just a couple of weeks ago, he was still the front-runner in Iowa, with 20 percent support, according to a Bloomberg News poll.
But he is now below his standing in the Register’s first poll of the caucus cycle, in June, when he claimed 10 percent.
“I think Cain’s over,” Republican strategist Mike Murphy said Thursday. “In the preseason, Iowans are willing to sample different candidates. At the first look, he’s a charming man, and people like him.”
But after the second and third look, “caucusgoers have reassessed his candidacy, and they don’t like what they see,” said Murphy, who has advised several presidential candidates, including John McCain in 2000 and Lamar Alexander in 1995, but is currently not aligned with any campaign.
Eleven percent said Cain is the candidate they like least.
In October, only 3 percent liked him least.
Strategist: He must go all-out in Iowa
Republican strategist David Polyansky said for Cain to survive, he would need to be in Iowa almost constantly, pushing his message out to the grass roots, while his campaign organizes in every county.
“It’s just that simple — to become a real Iowa campaign, which to date, they really have not,” said Polyansky, who worked for Mike Huckabee’s campaign four years ago and for Michele Bachmann’s 2012 campaign until September.
All hope is not lost, several poll respondents said.
Amy Putney, 30, of Readlyn said she doesn’t dwell on the sex scandals because “those things are inevitable. Every candidate is going to have something that comes out about them that’s not favorable.”
Although Cain is not her favorite, he remains in her top three, Putney said.
Cain’s chief of staff, Mark Block, met with his four-person Iowa team at its Urbandale office Thursday and told them the campaign will continue.
“The emphatic message is that the campaign is full steam ahead,” Communications Director Lisa Lockwood said in an email. “Herman Cain is in it to win it. He always has been, and that has not changed.”
Steve Grubbs, Cain’s Iowa chairman, said Thursday that Cain’s recovery would be a multistep process.
The campaign needs a couple of drama-free weeks — unlike the last four, Grubbs said.
Cain needs to be in Iowa on the stump, Grubbs said, and he needs to do very well in the two Iowa debates.
Voters must hear Cain’s message, without the filter of the news media, via paid advertisements, he said.
And if he finishes in the top three in Iowa, he shouldn’t try to fight for New Hampshire, but instead move on to claim hearts in South Carolina and Florida, Grubbs said.
But the big question is whether enough time remains before the Jan. 3 caucuses for Cain to salvage his reputation.
Grubbs acknowledged that progress in Iowa slowed this week: The campaign lost about 2 percent of its precinct captains. Still, 901 precinct captains remain loyal, Grubbs said.
“A good organization can deliver more votes than a candidate who might be polling high that doesn’t have the turnout mechanism in place,” he noted.
Cain has said he won’t make any decision about his campaign until he can speak face-to-face with his wife, Gloria, this weekend. He has said that he will arrive home today.
Look for more poll results this weekend
- Saturday night: A summary of where all the candidates stand in the race will be published here at 7 p.m.
- Sunday: Detailed analysis and results will be published in the Des Moines Sunday Register.
About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 27-30 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 2,222 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 401 said they would definitely or probably participate in the January 2012 Republican caucus. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone, stratifying contact by age. The full sample of 2,222 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 401 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. The two-day rolling averages have a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 percentage points. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.
