Michele Bachmann’s popularity has plunged nationwide since her Iowa straw poll win last month, a development that political observers said makes Iowa all the more central to her presidential campaign.
Bachmann registered just 5 percent in one poll out this week and 8 percent in another, placing her in the thick of the field’s second tier and well behind front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. The Minnesota congresswoman polled as high as 13 percent just last month, and was thought to be a leading candidate after winning the Aug. 13 straw poll in Ames.
“Nationally, I think it is fair to say her star has lost luster,” said J. Ann Selzer, a pollster based in West Des Moines.
The reason for the drop?
Perry, mostly. The Texas governor big-footed Bachmann’s straw poll victory by entering the race the same day and appeals to a similar conservative segment of the Republican electorate. And as the three-term governor of a large state, he’s got executive experience that the congresswoman can’t match.
“Republicans are likely asking, ‘What do you get with Bachmann that you don’t get from Perry?’ The answer is not much,” Selzer explained. “What do you get with Perry that you don’t get with Bachmann? That list is long.”
Political consultants and observers said the drooping national poll numbers are one more factor making Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses the Bachmann campaign’s first priority.
Fading prominence nationwide makes a strong caucus showing a critical springboard to success in following contests, they said. It also could take a bite out of campaign fundraising, limiting her ability to campaign elsewhere.
“It’s got to start in Iowa, and if she were to fail in Iowa, it would snowball” into other early-voting states, said Davenport-based political consultant Steve Grubbs. “She’s got to do well in Iowa.”
The campaign itself has recognized as much.
On the same day the poll placing Bachmann at 5 percent was released this week, her former campaign manager and current senior adviser Ed Rollins contrasted her campaign unfavorably against those of Perry and Romney. While those candidates have money to compete in several early primary states, Rollins said, Bachmann lacks the “ability or the resources to go beyond … Iowa at this point in time.”
But aides on the ground here insist Iowa has always been the central focus of the campaign, and that they’re unperturbed by daily poll numbers and individual news stories, good or bad.
“Polls are important, but they are merely a snapshot in time, and our campaign is looking at the long-term view,” campaign spokeswoman Alice Stewart said in a statement Wednesday. “We believe the road to victory runs through Iowa and that’s why Michele will be spending a great deal of time in her home state of Iowa.”
In Des Moines on Tuesday, Bachmann acknowledged that Perry’s presence “changes the dynamic,” but projected confidence.
“We’re doing exactly what we need to do,” she said. “We’re here in Iowa meeting with people, engaging with people, listening to them and talking about what their concerns are.”
Bachmann spent two days in the state this week, visiting businesses in Sheffield, Waterloo and Des Moines.
Judging by past early-primary campaigns, popularity in September is not indicative of later success. A fresh face might surge at first, but lose support once the candidate’s views and actions receive more vetting, said Republican pollster David Winston.
At this point in the 2008 election cycle, a polling average compiled by the website Real Clear Politics showed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the national field, followed by former U.S. senator and TV actor Fred Thompson. But their support gradually eroded, and both dropped out of the race in late January.
Conversely, candidates who start slowly can catch fire later on. Mike Huckabee, the 2008 Iowa caucus winner, polled at just 4.1 percent at this point four years ago. The ultimate Republican nominee, John McCain, was running a distant third behind Giuliani and Thompson.
“I don’t think what happened to her is unusual,” said Winston, who is based in Washington, D.C. “But she clearly missed an opportunity in growing her support.”
Iowa observers have cited numerous steps Bachmann can take to hold her ground and raise her standing in Iowa, including drawing sharp distinctions between herself and her rivals, staying loose, personable and accessible at events and, most of all, keeping up appearances here straight through the Feb. 6 caucuses.
But her ability to keep a heavy Iowa schedule is at least somewhat dependent on those national polling figures. Often, slipping poll numbers can lead to slipping campaign donations, as donors come to believe a candidate may not be a viable investment.
That’s particularly true of Internet fundraising, which has become increasingly important in presidential races, Grubbs said.
Becky Beach, a top Republican fundraiser in Iowa, said Bachmann will have to work to shore up her support against declining national popularity.
“I think she’ll need to be more aggressive in fundraising in the next few weeks, but in my opinion it’s certainly not too late,” Beach said.
Bachmann is also insulated, strategists said, by her ability to raise big money from small donors.
No matter what the national polls show, she should be able to tap a committed base of supporters to keep her Iowa campaign running through next year’s caucuses, said Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines attorney who has run numerous Democratic presidential campaigns in Iowa.
“I think she will be able to raise certainly not the resources that Rick Perry can raise or that Mitt Romney can raise, but she’ll be able to raise enough to be competitive in Iowa,” Crawford said.
That’s partially because Iowa is a relatively inexpensive place to run, he said. Campaigning in Iowa is less reliant on expensive TV and radio advertising, so that a candidate with a full schedule and a full tank of gas can still make an impact.
“You don’t have to be wealthy to win in Iowa, as many people have proven,” Crawford said.
Bachmann insisted Tuesday that money wouldn’t be an issue in the months to come. “We have sufficient resources to do what we’re doing and that’s to be very competitive in this race,” she said.
Woolson joins Bachmann’s Iowa campaign team
Iowa Republican political operative Eric Woolson has been hired to lead communications for presidential candidate Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign.
In a statement, the Minnesota congresswoman said: “Eric Woolson is well-known not only by Iowa reporters and party activists but he has also earned a reputation among the national media as someone who works hard, knows his state and gets things done.
“We’re very happy to have someone with his experience and can-do attitude join us as we begin the critical push to win the Iowa caucuses.”
Woolson handled Iowa communications for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty until he dropped out of the presidential race Aug. 14.
Woolson is best known for managing the 2008 presidential campaign in Iowa for Mike Huckabee, who claimed a surprise second-place in the Iowa straw poll in summer 2007 and then surged to victory in the caucuses in winter 2008.
He also worked for George W. Bush’s presidential campaign, Sioux City Republican Bob Vander Plaats’ gubernatorial campaign, Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ congressional campaign and U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s re-election campaign.
Woolson started his career in newspapers, including time at the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. He was later press secretary for Republican Gov. Terry Branstad’s first administration.
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