Friday, March 2, 2012

Tracy Jan: Poll finds low support for Mitt Romney proposal to partially privatize Medicare

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2012/03/poll-finds-low-support-for-mitt-romney-proposal-partially-privatize-medicare/HHb0H4olN2EvWASuXefqTI/index.html

WASHINGTON -- In a wide-ranging survey of American opinion on health care, the Kaiser Family Foundation found that most oppose a Medicare proposal put forth by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney that would give seniors a fixed amount of money to buy health insurance from private plans or traditional Medicare, according to February poll results released today.

Seventy percent of those polled favored the existing Medicare structure, while 25 percent said they would support partial privatization, or “premium support.” The reaction among seniors and younger adults was the same. Among Republicans, a narrow majority -- 53 percent -- said they preferred the status quo.

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon have proposed a similar plan in order to rein in the rapidly rising costs of Medicare.

The Kaiser poll also found that most Americans do not favor major Medicare cuts in order to curb the federal budget deficit; 13 percent supported sizeable cuts, 36 percent favored minor reductions, and half opposed any cuts. The strongest opposition came from seniors.

The public, though, seemed more willing to support raising Medicare’s age of eligibility, an idea Romney has proposed and one that President Obama once said he would consider. Fifty percent opposed the concept while 47 percent support it. The majority of seniors, who already qualify for Medicare and would be grandfathered in, support the plan, while a majority of those under 65 oppose it.

A third of seniors say they would only vote for a presidential candidate who shares their views on Medicare, compared with just 20 percent of adults under age 50. Democrats are more likely than Republicans or independents to consider Medicare a make-or-break issue.

The poll also surveyed people’s views on the ongoing controversy over contraception coverage and Obama’s health reform overhaul.

About six in 10 Americans said they support the new federal requirement that insurance plans include free birth control, while a third oppose it. Catholics were split along similar lines. But a large partisan divide exists on the issue, including among women: 85 percent of women who are Democrats support the requirement, but only 42 percent of women who are Republicans favor it. Among independent women, 67 percent approve.

The contraception issue, though, falls at the bottom of the list of concerns women most want to hear presidential candidates address; 58 percent named the economy as the most pressing matter while fewer than 1 percent said contraceptive coverage.

Americans are very much divided on the health reform law, known as the Affordable Care Act -- 42 percent hold favorable views of the law and 43 percent hold unfavorable views. This reflects a 5 percentage point uptick on the favorable side since Kaiser’s January poll, driven mostly by improved views of the law among independent voters.

The survey also found that a larger share of the American public trusts President Obama over any of the Republican presidential candidates when it comes to handling the future of Medicare and health care reform.

Tracy Jan can be reached at tjan@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @GlobeTracyJan.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Kim Geiger: Poll: Santorum has double-digit lead over Romney in Ohio

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-santorum-has-doubledigit-lead-over-romney-in-ohio-20120228,0,369298.story

This post has been corrected, as indicated below.

February 28, 2012, 10:12 a.m.

With just a week to go until Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 11 percentage points in a new Ohio poll of Republican primary voters, though nearly half say they could change their minds.

The poll by the University of Cincinnati shows Santorum leading the pack of GOP contenders with 37% support, followed by Mitt Romney with 26%, Newt Gingrich with 16% and Ron Paul with 11%.

Although 53% said they will “definitely vote” for their current preferred candidate, 47% of those polled said they could switch between now and Tuesday’s vote.

That may not necessarily be good news for Romney. Santorum had the highest portion of voters who said they are committed to vote for him. Forty-six percent of respondents who preferred Santorum also said they would “definitely” vote for him, compared with 24% for Romney.

As has been the case in other states, Santorum fares especially well with voters who support the"tea party" movement and voters who consider themselves born-again or evangelical Christians.

[For the record, Feb. 28: An earlier version of this post said 25% of Republican primary voters backed Mitt Romney. Twenty-six percent back Romney.]

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Kim Geiger: Poll: Most voters believe healthcare mandate is unconstitutional

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-most-voters-believe-individual-mandate-unconstitutional-20120227,0,145991.story

February 27, 2012, 9:50 a.m.

Nearly two years after President Obama signed his landmark healthcare package into law, three-quarters of registered voters believe the law’s requirement that every American carry health insurance is unconstitutional, according to a new survey.

A USA Today/Gallup poll taken earlier this month and released Monday found that a majority of voters -- those surveyed in battleground states and nationwide generally -- agreed in their dislike of the Affordable Care Act. Voters in battleground states are more likely to want it repealed, the poll showed.

Fifty-three percent of voters polled in battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin – said they would favor repealing the law if a Republican is elected president in November. Nationwide, 40% said they would favor repeal.

A majority of voters – 50% nationwide and 53% in battleground states – consider the law a bad thing. The vast majority of voters feel the law has so far had no effect on them or their families, but more than 40% believe it will ultimately make things worse.

The results are disappointing news for President Obama, whose reelection campaign counts enactment of the healthcare law as a signature achievement of his administration. And voters’ dislike of the law is likely to be revived next month when the Supreme Court hears arguments in a case challenging the constitutionality of the law.

The survey also polled voters on their general election preferences. Nationwide, Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 47% each, according to the poll. Rick Santorum holds a 3 percentage point advantage with 49% compared to Obama’s 46%. Both results are within the sampling error of four percentage points.

Of a number of polls released Monday, the USA Today/Gallup survey painted the gloomiest picture for Obama. A Rasmussen tracking poll showed Obama leading Romney 45% to 43% and ahead of Santorum, 47% to 42%. A Politico/GWU/Battleground poll showed Obama leading Romney 53% to 43% and leading Santorum 53% to 42%.

It is not unusual for results to vary widely among different polls, as methodology and subject matter can skew results. For example, as we noted last week, a recent polling experiment by Marquette University Law School found that the order of pollsters’ questions can impact respondents’ favorability toward a candidate. In that survey, Obama’s favorability was greater among respondents who were asked job-approval questions before being asked about the economy.

kim.geiger@latimes.com