Only Newt Gingrich would lose to Obama, according to a new Iowa Poll of likely voters of all political stripes.
Here’s a news flash: The candidate who does best against Obama in Iowa is Ron Paul, a Republican with crossover appeal with non-Republicans.
Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney also win head-to-head match-ups with the Democratic president.
“This is not a secure state for Obama,” said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register.
The president’s job approval is 46 percent in Iowa, just one point above his lowest low of 45 percent in September 2010.
No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.
The Hawkeye State has been awash in GOP messages, and, perhaps as a consequence, it’s in a Republican mood.
Millions of dollars of attack ads and months of campaign trail harping about Obama did their damage, said Paul Begala, a Washington, D.C.-based Democratic strategist and political commentator for CNN.
“More than any other early state, the discussion in the Iowa GOP contest centered on attacking the president,” Begala said. “The enduring lesson is that unanswered attacks do real damage.”
Iowa equipped Obama with training wheels by handing him a win in the first-in-the-nation Democratic caucuses in 2008, then handed him a driver’s license with a 9.7 percentage-point win in the general election.
Obama needs a strong and vigorous counterattack to nail a repeat victory here, said Begala, also a close adviser to Bill Clinton during his 1992 presidential race. Obama will need to be in Iowa — campaign in Iowa, run advertisements in Iowa and organize his get-out-the-vote operation in Iowa, Begala said.
“And I’m sure he’ll do all three,” he said. “These Iowa numbers are counter to the national trend, which suggests President Obama can turn them around.”
Obama’s favorability numbers are rising nationally, while the GOP favorability numbers are going down, Begala noted.
The Iowa Poll was conducted Feb. 12-15, surveying 800 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Election questions were asked of 611 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
Even as the national economy shores itself, only 30 percent of Iowa adults think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, while 64 percent say things have gotten on the wrong track.
Independent voter Krissy Dewandel, a teacher from Larchwood, said she would vote for any of the Republican candidates, and she especially likes Santorum. She has disdain for Paul, but she would still vote for him against the president.
“Somebody’s got to beat Obama — he sucks,” said Dewandel, 53.
“The debt, the stupid health care plan, the economy. There isn’t anything right.”
It also irritates Dewandel that Obama rejected a permit for a controversial oil pipeline from Canada to U.S. refineries.
“If they could get gas prices down to a reasonable level — I don’t have money to spend on other stuff because I’m plunking $50 into my car every time I turn around,” she said. “And the pipeline would provide jobs.”
Perceptions about the economy will be key to Obama’s fate, and if gas prices keep rising, he could be in real trouble, political analysts said.
Just 38 percent of Iowans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.
