Kim Geiger: Bloomberg poll: Mitt Romney would beat Obama in New Hampshire

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-bloomberg-poll-20111116,0,6920495.story?track=rss

By Kim GeigerWashington Bureau

November 16, 2011, 1:17 p.m.

Mitt Romney, the front-runner in the GOP primary race in New Hampshire, also holds a commanding lead overPresident Obama with just a year to go until the 2012 presidential election.

If the general election were held today, Romney would beat Obama in New Hampshire by 10 percentage points, according to a new Bloomberg News poll.

New Hampshire has favored Democratic candidates in four of the last five presidential elections, and backed the winner in each of those contests except in 2004, when Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry carried the state over President George W. Bush. Obama won New Hampshire in 2008 with 54% of the vote.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, does particularly well with New Hampshire’s independent voters – he would win independents by 15 percentage points, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the poll results.

The Romney-Obama matchup was the only potential general election contest tested in the poll, which was conducted Nov. 10-12 by the Des Moines firm Selzer & Co.

The poll also surveyed likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, and found that Romney continues to hold a considerable lead in the state, with 40% support, followed by Ron Paul with 17%, Newt Gingrich with 11% and Herman Cainwith 8%. Twenty-six percent said they backed Romney when he ran for the GOP nomination in 2008; 7% backed Paul that year.

Almost two-thirds of likely primary voters – 60% -- said they could be persuaded to back another candidate.

The poll results also suggest that allegations that Herman Cain sexually harassed women in the 1990s may have hurt the former pizza chain executive’s standing with voters.

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted just before the allegations broke found Cain with 17% support; two weeks later, his support in the Bloomberg News poll was just 8%.

Forty-three percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they would rule out a candidate who had been accused of sexual harassment. Just 30% of likely caucus-goers in Iowa said the same in a Bloomberg News poll also conducted by Selzer & Co. from Nov. 10-12. Cain’s support in Iowa is considerably higher – 20%.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Devin Dwyer: Romney Holds Big Lead Over Obama in N.H. Poll

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/romney-holds-big-lead-over-obama-in-n-h-poll/

By Devin Dwyer
@devindwyer

Fresh off a nine-day swing through Southeast Asia, President Obama heads to New Hampshire early next week, switching back into campaign mode in a key campaign state where his standing among voters has slid.

A new Bloomberg poll shows Obama trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 10 points – 40 percent to 50 percent, respectively - in a hypothetical general election match-up.

In 2008, Obama carried the Granite State with 54 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Sen. John McCain.

The erosion of support for Obama was led by independents, who the poll found favored Romney by a 15-point margin.

The survey of 500 Granite State residents, including 324 likely voters, was conducted by Selzer & Co. for Bloomberg News between Nov. 10-11. It has a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points for general election figures.

The poll signals an uphill climb for Obama in a battleground state that has backed the winner in four of the past five presidential elections.

But Obama’s campaign strategists aren’t ready to write off New Hampshire just yet.

They’ve opened two field offices — in Portsmouth and Concord — and plan an aggressive organizing effort around women voters and younger voters, constituencies with whom Obama retains an edge, according to the Bloomberg poll.

Vice President Joe Biden has also kept a high profile in the state, visiting twice in the past three weeks. Obama’s visit to Manchester Tuesday – billed by the White House as an “official” event at taxpayer expense – will be his first trip there since February 2010.

The Bloomberg poll found Obama’s effort to raise taxes on wealthier Americans to help pay for his jobs plan drew a plurality of support among New Hampshire voters. Look for Obama to underscore his message on the stump next week.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis: Republicans on Romney Can’t Reconcile Competence With Expediency

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-17/republicans-considering-romney-can-t-reconcile-competence-with-expediency.html

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis - Nov 17, 2011 12:00 AM ET

Republican primary voters are torn between their confidence in Mitt Romney’s professional competence and doubts about his political character.

Likely caucus and primary participants in Iowa and New Hampshire view the former Massachusetts governor by wide majorities as smart, business-savvy and fit to be president, according to Nov. 10-12 Bloomberg News polls conducted in both states, where the first primary contests will be held.

Yet substantial numbers, almost half in Iowa and two out of five in New Hampshire, also view him as someone who will do or say anything to get elected, “a flip-flopper,” or not a true social conservative.

Those warring impressions help explain how Romney has attained front-runner status in national polls while remaining unable to secure enough backing to break away from his rivals.

When voters look at Romney, “they see the competence, and they see that the problems that are immediately to be solved are in his wheelhouse, but there’s sort of this lurking suspicion about whether they can trust him or that he is going to be their guy on social, moral issues,” says J. Ann Selzer, president of Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the polls.

Abortion, Gay Marriage

In a debate during his successful 2002 campaign for governor, Romney said, “I do not take the position of a pro- life candidate. I am in favor of preserving and protecting a woman’s right to choose.” Since that race, Romney has said his position evolved. At a June 13 CNN debate, he said, “I am firmly pro-life,” and, “I believe in the sanctity of life from the very beginning to the very end.”

Romney’s rhetoric on gay rights also has shifted. During a 1994 Senate run, he wrote a letter to the Log Cabin Club of Massachusetts, a gay-rights group whose endorsement he was seeking, stating that he wanted to “make equality for gays and lesbians a mainstream concern.” During his 2008 presidential campaign, in which he appealed for votes from social conservatives, Romney touted his support for a Massachusetts constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

His Mormon faith offers insight into his candidacy’s fault lines.

Just 8 percent of poll respondents in Iowa and 4 percent in New Hampshire say they consider the two-time presidential candidate’s religion to be a disqualifying attribute.

Mormon Faith

That unanimity begins to splinter when asked whether they consider “Mormonism to be part of the Christian tradition” or something else. In Iowa, 51 percent of likely caucus attendees say it is “something else,” while 34 percent in New Hampshire say that.

Romney, 64, wins the backing of 28 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers who say his religion is part of the Christian tradition -- putting him in first place by 9 percentage points in the field of eight candidates. He draws 11 percent backing from those who view it as something else -- moving him into fourth place in Iowa.

Romney’s Mormon faith “does have an impact, even if people think it doesn’t play a role in their choice,” Selzer says. “There is no such impact in New Hampshire.” Those doubts can be compounded by voter concerns over his commitment to such moral and religious issues as opposing abortion rights and gay marriage.

Doubts About Authenticity

Tina Stange, 52, a nurse from Mason City, Iowa, who is also Mormon, considers Romney’s faith a plus. Still, while she views him as intelligent, experienced, competent, and the candidate best able to beat President Barack Obama, Stange’s doubts about Romney’s authenticity and commitment to socially conservative principles are keeping her from embracing him.

“It’s almost like he’s out there trying to find out what the public opinion is so it can be his opinion,” says Stange. “We believe in very firm standards and morals. We believe in the teachings of the church, and there’s no point in voting for a Mormon if he’s not upholding that.”

In Iowa, 48 percent of likely Republican caucus participants say Romney will do or say anything to win, 47 percent say he’s a flip-flopper, and 46 percent say he’s not really a social conservative.

Those voters see his strengths, as well. Three-quarters or more say Romney is qualified to be president, has the business experience to create jobs, or is very smart.

Electability Factor

“My idea is you may have supported something in the past that I don’t agree with, but those were different times, and I’m more concerned with what you’re going to do as president,” says TJ Augustine, a law student and part-time sports referee in Des Moines. “The biggest thing I’m looking for is someone who’s electable -- someone who’s going to stick up for conservative ideas like smaller government and less regulation -- and I think Romney will.”

While New Hampshire Republican primary voters have a more positive view of Romney’s political character, 43 percent say he is a flip-flopper who will do or say anything to win, and 36 percent say he’s not really a social conservative. More than 80 percent of New Hampshire respondents say, as Iowans do, that Romney is qualified to sit in the Oval Office, has the business experience necessary to create jobs, or is very smart.

Overall, the New Hampshire survey shows Romney with a substantial lead, drawing support from 40 percent of likely Republican primary voters, an advantage that totals more than his nearest three competitors combined.

Tied in Iowa

In Iowa, the poll found, Romney is virtually tied with the same three contenders, with backing from 18 percent of likely caucus-goers compared with 20 percent for former fast-food executiveHerman Cain, 19 percent for U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas, and 17 percent for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The results point up the difference in political profile between the two states that may account for Romney’s decisive lead in New Hampshire and his failure to secure one in Iowa.

In New Hampshire, likely Republican primary voters downplayed the role of social issues in their voting decisions, with 54 percent saying gay marriage is “not important” and a 43 percent plurality saying abortion wasn’t. In Iowa, 57 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers call abortion “critical” or “important,” with a 46 percent plurality saying so of gay marriage.

Economy Dominates

In both early-voting states, at least half of voters name jobs, the economy, government spendingand debt reduction, and taxes as critical. That could provide Romney with an edge as he emphasizes his business credentials in campaign speeches.

Those issues are influencing Jeff Vanderwerff, 50, of Orange City, Iowa, who is backing Romney. “I know some people are concerned about his conservative credentials, but I think he’s going to govern right of center,” he says. “And if there’s some future challenge out there on the economy, I have far greater confidence that he’s going to handle it with a greater amount of evenhandedness and common sense” than his Republican rivals, says Vanderwerff, a college politics teacher.

Vanderwerff is supporting Romney in spite of his shifts on such issues as abortion rights and, more recently, an Ohio anti- union ballot initiative, both of which he says “call into question his sincerity or authenticity.”

The survey results also show the Massachusetts health-care law Romney signed as governor -- often equated with Obama’s health-care law because both mandate that everyone purchase medical insurance -- continues to plague him.

Opposed to Mandate

In Iowa, 58 percent say past support for a health-insurance mandate would prompt them to “rule out” a candidate. In New Hampshire, 46 percent say it was a disqualifier.

“I have no problem with someone changing your mind; it’s OK to change,” says Matt Hopkins, a sales and marketing executive from Dover, New Hampshire. “The problem I have with Mitt is he never owns up to it, he never says this was a mistake and here’s why,” says Hopkins, 34, who voted for Romney in 2008 and is now supporting Gingrich. “For Romney to try to justify that health care’s been a success in Massachusetts, is asinine.”

Hopkins says Romney’s history of switching sides on big issues would make him less effective at drawing distinctions with Obama.

“There’s no doubt Romney’s a sharp guy,” he says. “But I think Gingrich would make Barack look like a babbling 7-year- old.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at orJdavis159@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva@bloomberg.net

Kim Geiger: Cain, Paul, Romney and Gingrich tied in new Iowa poll

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-fourway-tie-20111115,0,1559119.story?track=rss

By Kim GeigerWashington Bureau

November 15, 2011 12:55 p.m.

With just seven weeks to go before Iowa holds the first nominating contest of the GOP presidential primary, voters in the state remain ambivalent about their choices.

According to a new Bloomberg News poll, businessmanHerman Cain leads the pack with 20% support among registered Republican and Republican-leaning voters, followed by Ron Paul at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18% and Newt Gingrich at 17%. The poll, which was taken Nov. 10-12, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the four candidates are in a statistical dead heat.

Sixty percent of respondents said they could be persuaded to support a different candidate as their first choice, another sign that the field is nowhere near settled.

Although social issues have traditionally been very important in the Iowa caucuses, the poll suggests Iowans this year are far more focused on the economy. Seventy-one percent said fiscal issues are more important factors in selecting a candidate to back.

Just 25% said gay marriage was a “critical” issue in evaluating the candidates; 38% said it is “not important.” Similarly, 33% said abortion was a critical issue but 24% said it is not important. Seventy-seven percent said government spending and reducing debt were a critical issue, compared with just 1% who said it was not important.

The poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., the Des Moines firm that was alone in correctly predicting Barack Obama’s upset victory in the state’s Democratic caucuses in 2008.

The poll spells good and bad news for each of the Republican candidates who are vying to take on President Obama in 2012:

Herman Cain’s support in Iowa dropped about 3 percentage points since a Des Moines Register poll taken Oct. 23-26, also by Selzer & Co., found him at 23%. The Bloomberg News poll was taken as four women alleged that Cain had sexually harassed them in the 1990s, but it is unclear how much the allegations may have hurt his standing with voters.

Twenty-nine percent said they believed Cain when he said he never sexually harassed anyone and 37% said they were waiting to make up their minds. Just 14% said they didn't believe him. More than two-thirds -- 69% -- said they would not rule out a candidate who has been accused of sexual harassment.

Also good news for Cain: 45% of respondents said they would “definitely” support him in a general election against Obama.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul has the most solid base of support. Of likely caucus-goers who say they’re decided on who they will back, 32% have chosen Paul, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the poll results.

Paul’s campaign has also made the most contact with voters: 67% said they had heard from his campaign, followed by 61% who report being contacted by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and 47% contacted by Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Like Cain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has also seen his support slide since the last Iowa poll, which had him at 22%. He’s now at 18%.

Even worse, 58% said they would rule out a candidate who has favored a mandate to buy health insurance. And just 7% listed Romney as the candidate who would do the most to halt illegal immigration.

The good news for Romney is that he appears to be picking up new supporters: Just 41% of those who back him said they also went for him in 2008, according to the Bloomberg analysis. Romney lost the Iowa caucuses in 2008 to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, despite spending about $10 million in the state.

Matched up with Obama, 45% said they would definitely support Romney and just 18% said they would probably not.

Newt Gingrich has enjoyed a recent boost in the polls after a sluggish summer that began with the embarrassing departure of more than a dozen key campaign staffers.

But the Bloomberg poll suggests Gingrich’s marital history -- he is on his third marriage and has admitted to having an affair -- may mean trouble for the former House speaker. Respondents were split, 48% to 49%, over whether they would rule out a candidate who has been married three times and had extramarital affairs.

Rick Perry’s disastrous debate performance last week seems not to have affected his already low support in Iowa.

As was the case in late October, Perry has just 7% support.

He seems to score highest with voters on immigration: 16% say he is the candidate who would do the most to end illegal immigration. But his tax proposal to allow people to pay a 20% flat rate has just 14% support, compared with 32% who favor Romney’s proposal to make the George W. Bush-era tax cuts permanent, then work toward overhaul of the system.

Michele Bachmann’s aggressive campaign strategy in Iowa has failed to pay off as she continues to lose support. Bachmann enjoyed 22% support in June, then won the Ames Straw Poll. But by late October, her support had fallen to 8%. She’s now at 5%.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, at 3%, claims to have visited all 99 Iowa counties.

The one bit of good news for former ambassador Jon Huntsman -- and for Romney -- is that 91% said they would not rule out a candidate because he is a Mormon. Huntsman, at 1%, is not aggressively competing in Iowa.

kim.geiger@latimes.com