Jennifer Jacobs: Iowa Poll: Gingrich leads GOP pack, then Paul, Romney

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/04/iowa-poll-newt-gingrich-most-popular-gop-candidate/

Jennifer Jacobs: 4:00AM, Dec. 4, 2011

With the dizzying fall of Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich has stepped into the breach and now stands alone as the most popular GOP presidential candidate in The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Gingrich, with support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, is seven points ahead of the rising Ron Paul, who’s at 18 percent. Mitt Romney drops to third, at 16percent, denting his previously armor-plated Iowa polling average. Romney’s support stood at 22 percent last month.

Cain, who suspended his campaign Saturday, had plunged from 23 percent to 8 percent in just over a month, tied with Michele Bachmann.

In a race that’s still far from settled, previous candidate surges have had a half life. But Gingrich’s comes at a critical time — with just a month until the first votes are cast in the nation’s GOP nominating contest. The key question is whether his support represents momentum or a peak.

Politics watchers say it could be difficult for Gingrich to withstand the rigors of front-runner status, especially when his campaign has shown a lack of discipline so far, plagued by early debt, staff turnover and a paper-thin organization.

Gingrich has been “a one-man band just standing onstage and pontificating,” Republican strategist Mike Murphy said. “On caucus night, can you convoy and get people there?”

One striking finding: The results show Gingrich’s ascendancy has the potential to grow, pollster J. Ann Selzer said.

More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43 percent of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second.

With Cain’s departure from the race, Gingrich will likely benefit. More Cain supporters name Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate.

Rounding out the field: The two Ricks, Perry and Santorum, are locked in a tie at 6 percent. At the bottom is Jon Huntsman at 2 percent.

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers Nov. 27-30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The race remains elastic. Eleven percent of likely caucusgoers are uncommitted to a first choice, and 60percent are still willing to change their mind. A single day’s news can seesaw opinions.

Another interesting finding: Paul, often dismissed by the political establishment, has climbed 6 points since the Register’s October poll.

“The big surprise potential now is with Ron Paul,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

But Paul could be closing in on his ceiling, the poll indicates. Just 7 percent choose him as their second choice.

“This is where Paul is weak, in that he has little breadth from which to draw new support,” Selzer said.

Although Romney is no longer king in the Iowa Poll — he was No. 1 in June and just a point off the lead in October — the results contain some positive signs for his Iowa campaign.

Pluralities of likely caucusgoers see Romney as the most electable candidate in the general election, and the most presidential. Gingrich supporters name Romney as their second choice more than any other candidate. And Romney takes the likability crown that caucusgoers bestowed on Cain a month ago.

Leading on electability offers perhaps the brightest ray of hope for Romney supporters. Gingrich’s surge might prove another primal but short-lived scream of frustration at the direction the country is headed.

As the Jan. 3 caucuses near, their theory goes, Republicans will eventually gravitate to the candidate they think can best beat Democratic President Barack Obama.

Thirty-five percent of poll respondents have seen at least one candidate in person.

That’s slightly higher than four years ago, when candidates had had a live audience with 31 percent of likely caucusgoers by late December.

Why can’t Iowa Republicans make up their minds? Ninety-two percent of those not fully committed to their first choice say they just always keep their mind open to switching candidates.

But 25 percent say they’re concerned there may be a new revelation about their first choice, and 16 percent say there’s something they already know about their candidate that makes them uneasy.

More on the Iowa Poll

• Obradovich: New Iowa Poll provides guidance on caucus myths and realities
• Three questions emerge from Iowa Poll results
• Results by candidate
• More numbers from the Iowa Poll
• Raw data, Nov. 27-30 Iowa Poll

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 27-30 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 2,222 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 401 said they would definitely or probably participate in the January 2012 Republican caucus. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone, stratifying contact by age. The full sample of 2,222 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 401 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.

Jennifer Jacobs: Iowa Poll: In-depth results by candidate

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/04/iowa-poll-results-by-candidate/

Jennifer Jacobs: 3:58AM, Dec. 4, 2011

NEWT GINGRICH
June: 7 percent
October: 7 percent
November: 25 percent

It’s a three-person race, but there’s a clear leader, The Des Moines Register’s pollster J. Ann Selzer said.

Gingrich holds a 7-point lead over Ron Paul (18 percent) and a 9-point advantage over Mitt Romney (16 percent).

One indication of solidity in Gingrich’s position as front-runner, Selzer said, is that he leads with definite as well as probable caucus attendees.

Gingrich leads on seven of the 13 positive attributes tested, including three with at least half of respondents. Respondents think he’s the most experienced and most knowledgeable about the world (58 percent each) and the best debater (50 percent).

He leads four other categories by narrower margins: best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together, best able to bring about real change, most like Ronald Reagan and best able to turn around the economy.

Gingrich does best with seniors (37 percent) and very conservative caucusgoers (35 percent).

He’s a veteran Washington insider, yet he leads with tea partiers (30 percent), and especially with those who consider themselves strong tea party supporters (43 percent). He does better than average with those who are very conservative fiscally (30 percent), very conservative socially (31 percent), and with those who consider themselves born-again Christians (30 percent).

There’s an appetite for more of Gingrich: 26 percent say they would like to see him in person before the caucuses, ahead of Perry at 17 percent, Cain at 16 percent and Romney at 15 percent.

RON PAUL
June: 7 percent
October: 12 percent
November: 18 percent

Paul’s 18 percent showing is basically the same as in Bloomberg News’ mid-November poll (19 percent).

The Texas congressman leads in two of the 13 positive attributes tested: 32 percent say he is the most fiscally responsible candidate in the field, and 24 percent say he is the most principled.

But a category-leading 19 percent say he is the most negative.
Paul all but ties with Gingrich among first-time caucus attenders (Paul is 19 percent to Gingrich’s 20 percent).

“This may indicate his campaign organization is focused on recruiting newcomers,” Selzer said.

Paul’s organizational strength shows in the 15 percent who say they’ve seen him in person, second only to Bachmann at 20 percent.
Paul leads the field with the under-35 crowd (26 percent).

MITT ROMNEY
June: 23 percent
October: 22 percent
November: 16 percent

This is the first time this cycle that Romney hasn’t hit at least 20 percent in a Register poll.

If Romney’s campaign aides want to play down expectations about how well he can do in the Iowa caucuses, this poll will help.

Still, the results continue to reflect strengths: He is considered the most electable in the general election (38 percent), the most presidential (34 percent) and the most likeable (19 percent).

Anti-Romney sentiment may be a factor in Iowa, but it’s not as extraordinary as sometimes portrayed, Selzer said.

On a question about which candidate caucus-goers like least, five of the eight candidates draw double-digits: Bachmann and Romney at 15 percent, Paul at 13 percent, Cain at 11 percent, and Perry at 10 percent. More men dislike Romney (18 percent). More women dislike Bachmann (19 percent).

Strong tea party supporters are the most opposed to Romney, with 32 percent saying he is the one they like least. This is a group that’s strongly on board with Gingrich.

There is about the same appetite to see more of Romney in Iowa (15 percent) as exists for other candidates. The exceptions are Gingrich, with 26 percent, and Huntsman at the low end, with 7 percent.

Romney takes second place among independents (19 percent to Paul’s 38 percent), and with the small number of moderates and liberals (20 percent to Paul’s 27 percent).

He takes second to Gingrich among the most affluent (23 percent to Gingrich’s 28 percent among those reporting income of $70,000 or more).

MICHELE BACHMANN
June: 22 percent
October: 8 percent
November: 8 percent

Bachmann, winner of the Iowa straw poll in August, has maintained her support since October, but that’s a steep drop-off compared with June, when she polled at 22 percent, second only to Romney’s 23 percent.

Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman, is the candidate more likely caucusgoers have seen than any other, at 20 percent.

In the least-liked contest, Bachmann gets the blue ribbon. Romney shares her company, with 15 percent.

Women dislike her more than any other candidate (19 percent).

Where Bachmann leads is in her reputation for opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage: 27 percent say she is the most socially conservative. That’s the only category she leads of the 13 positive attributes tested.

HERMAN CAIN (CAMPAIGN NOW SUSPENDED)
June: 10 percent
October: 23 percent
November: 8 percent

The retired Godfather’s Pizza chief executive was the front-runner in Iowa for at least the last month, according to polling by Selzer & Co.

He was at 23 percent in the October Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 23-26. A Bloomberg News poll in Iowa in mid-November, also conducted by Selzer, had him leading the field at 20 percent.

In the October poll, Cain owned the likability factor: Only 3 percent named him as the candidate they liked least, best of the field. In this poll, 11 percent said Cain was their least-liked.

Even before polling began, Cain’s numbers had sagged from his October heights. On the first day of polling, his support stood at 12 percent. On the second of four days of calling, Atlanta businesswoman Ginger White went public with her accusation of a 13-year extramarital affair.

His support dropped steadily over the four-day poll to 4 percent Wednesday.

In attributes tested, Cain led in two undesirable categories: 35 percent said he would be most likely to have a scandal in the White House if elected, and 27 percent said he was the least knowledgeable.

He suspended his campaign Saturday.

RICK PERRY
June: Not yet in race
October: 7 percent
November: 6 percent

Perry, the Texas governor, is a second-choice candidate for 12 percent.

He was the last of the 2012 field to join the race, announcing his candidacy on Aug. 13.

Political analysts said Perry has seemed unpracticed. He spoke haltingly or, most famously, suffered a mental block in debates in front of national audiences.

Those who campaign for months in Iowa, speaking in living room after living room, hone their answers, Selzer said. “Iowa makes you a better candidate,” she said.

But Iowa’s likely caucusgoers have an interest in seeing Perry in person, the poll shows.
Seventeen percent say he’s the one they’d most like to see, second only to Gingrich (26 percent).

RICK SANTORUM
June: 4 percent
October: 5 percent
November: 6 percent

Santorum has climbed a 1-percentage-point stairstep each poll.

Adding first and second choices together, he just breaks into double digits at 10 percent. That’s lower than Bachmann at 19 percent.

The former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania doesn’t lead in any of the positive or negative attributes tested. He does best in most socially conservative (13 percent, behind Bachmann and Paul) and most principled (11 percent, behind Paul, Bachmann and Romney).

Santorum moved his family to Iowa for a short period before the Iowa straw poll in August, and he is the only candidate this cycle who has campaigned in all 99 counties — feats that don’t necessarily guarantee success.

Twelve percent of likely caucusgoers report seeing him in person, while 11 percent say they would like to.

Selzer said: “The fact he’s further on the right doesn’t help him this time around. That’s not where the mindset is.”

JON HUNTSMAN
June: 2 percent
October: 1 percent
November: 2 percent

Huntsman, a former Utah governor, has visited Iowa only once as a candidate, for a nationally televised GOP debate in August.

There is definitely an anti-Huntsman faction in Iowa. He ranks lowest, either alone or tied, in 12 of 13 positive attributes tested.

One positive: He and Santorum tie for least likely to have a scandal in the White House.

Arlette Saenz (contributor): Gingrich Leads in Des Moines Register Poll, Romney Drops to Third

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/gingrich-leads-in-des-moines-register-poll-romney-drops-to-third/

By Shushannah Walshe

Dec 3, 2011 10:23pm

DES MOINES, Iowa — Newt Gingrich is now the frontrunner in the first caucus state of Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register poll released this evening.

With only a month before the caucuses, the former speaker of the house received 25 percent support of likely Republican caucus-goers, up from only 7 percent in the Register’s last poll in October. Ron Paul came in second place with 18 percent support, and Mitt Romney was third with 16 percent support.

Caucus campaign veteran and current spokesman for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, Tim Albrecht calls the results an “accurate snapshot” of what’s going on here on the ground, but Albrecht says now it’s Gingrich’s turn to play the expectations game.

“The poll places Newt Gingrich in a must-win position with regard to the Iowa caucuses,” said Albrecht, who is currently unaligned but last cycle served as Romney’s communications director in the state. “The question is if he can build the ground game necessary to be successful. Time will tell.”

The poll was taken before Herman Cain’s suspension of his campaign Saturday and he received 8 percent of the support, the same as Michele Bachmann. But the fact that 11 percent of those polled remained undecided while 60 percent may still change their mind, combined with Cain being now out of the running means the race is still very much up in the air.

“The first thing that jumped out at me is that two-thirds (of those polled) say they are still persuadable voters, which tells me it’s going to be a wild ride for the next four weeks,” says Matt Strawn, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. “It still doesn’t seem that Iowa caucus voters are locked in.”

Strawn pointed out this could also mean the candidates are having a hard time cementing those all-important precinct captains for caucus night because of the high number of undecided voters.

Rick Perry tied with Rick Santorum with only 6 percent of the vote.

Perry has been on the airwaves in Iowa for over a month now, but his poll numbers have not budged despite spending nearly $1 million in advertising in the Hawkeye State alone. Make Us Great Again, the pro-Perry super PAC, has spent at least $202,000 on ads in Iowa as well.

Albrecht says it shows that the Texas governor is just “the latest in a long line of candidates who think merely throwing TV ads on the air will somehow translate into caucus support.”

“A candidate has got to spend time here, or they will never be successful,” Albrecht said. “You can’t spend thousands on ads alone. They are learning a very real lesson tonight, and that is, don’t ignore Iowa.”

One candidate who has not ignored that state is Santorum. Despite campaigning the hardest here, visiting every one of the state’s 99 counties, he remains still at the bottom of the pack only moving up 1 percentage point since the last poll. His barnstorming of the state seems to have made no difference to Iowa voters, but his recent endorsements by evangelical and conservative leaders in both Iowa and New Hampshire, along with the undecided and Cain voters, could possibly help him.

Craig Robinson, former political director of the Iowa GOP who now runs the politics website The Iowa Republican.com says he still has a chance.

“At the end of the day when voters are done moving around and jumping to whoever is hot it will come down to who they support and who they believe in and they (the candidates) have to hope it is them,” Robinson said. “I think that helps Santorum more than Perry.”

Robinson also says today’s derailment of the Cain Train could help both Santorum and Bachmann in the state.

“Clearing that distraction out of the race might be good for Santorum, that goes for Bachmann, too,” Robinson said. “That’s the one thing they have to be banking on and that is their support is greater than what they are seeing in these polls.”

Although Cain is no longer in the race, the poll shows how dramatically he dropped in the eyes of voters here and how the sexual harassment allegations as well as foreign policy gaffes hurt him. In the October poll he was on top with 23 percent support, but in this poll he received only 8 percent. His most recent scandal, allegations of a 13-year affair with a Georgia businesswoman, broke on day two of polling. The Register reports that over four days of polling Cain went from 12 percent to 4 percent support.

Robinson said Cain supporters in Iowa will go to “multiple” candidates instead of just one and it may not help Gingrich.

“A lot of his (Cain) supporters are super passionate about illegal immigration. They are not going to Gingrich,” Robinson said, referring to Gingrich’s comments at a CNN debate last month where he said he opposed the deportation of all illegal immigrants. “I don’t think they will all go to one place.”

Mitt Romney has sunk to third place, down from 22 percent, a statistical tie with Cain in the last poll. This could give the campaign the opportunity to back off here just as expectations were rising and focus on New Hampshire, but Robinson says Romney’s number is “the story of the poll.”

“Romney is no longer in second place and I think the Romney campaign needs to start — instead of worrying about managing expectations, they need to concern themselves with actually winning. That was the caucus results, it’s a huge loss for Mitt Romney,” Robinson said. “He can’t beat Ron Paul, he can’t beat Newt Gingrich in Iowa. His support is dropping when he is starting to reengage the state. It shows he may have waited too long.”

Romney did get some good news in the Hawkeye state today. The Sioux City Journal endorsed the former Massachusetts governor, as they did in the last cycle. It’s an influential endorsement with just a month to go. Romney did well in that part of the state last cycle and in order to do well here this time he will need to hold on to those supporters.

The paper called him the “best prepared through experience, skills and qualities to lead the country” and it lavishes high praise on the candidate, even comparing him to Ronald Reagan.

“If it’s a ‘family values’ candidate you want, Romney is a good and decent man of integrity who lives the values he espouses,” the Sioux City Journal writes. “By virtue of his bid for president in both 2008 and 2012, no candidate in this year’s Republican field has been vetted like Romney. If no skeleton has been discovered in his closet to this point, it’s likely there isn’t one.”

The editorial also knocks Gingrich and his other opponents, although not by name.

“Do not discount the importance of personal traits in a candidate for president. As we said in our 2007 endorsement of Romney, if a presidential candidate is a polarizing figure within the halls of Congress and devoid of the personal characteristics necessary to inspire Americans to listen and follow, his or her plans have little to no chance of success, regardless of how detailed and well-conceived they might be, “the editorial reads. “Like the popular Ronald Reagan, Romney combines a pragmatic conservatism with confidence (not arrogance) and an easy, comfortable style and manner, even charm.”

ABC News’ Arlette Saenz contributed to this report.

Jennifer Jacobs: Iowa Poll: Newt Gingrich leads three-candidate race in Iowa

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/03/iowa-poll-gingrich-leading-the-pack/

Jennifer Jacobs: 7:01pm, Dec. 3, 2011

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich has carved out a clear lead in what’s become a three-candidate race in Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul has risen into second place, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has slid to third with just over a month before the Iowa caucuses kick off voting in the presidential nominating process.

Gingrich has support from 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, Paul is at 18 percent and Romney at 16 percent.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann ties with retired Georgia business executive Herman Cain at 8 percent.

The poll was conducted before Cain suspended his candidacy on Saturday.

Rounding out the field: Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 6 percent each, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2 percent.

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers Nov. 27-30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Gingrich’s support stood at just 7 percent in the most recent Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 23-26. His rapid rise mirrors Cain’s dramatic fall. Cain led the October Iowa Poll, with 23 percent support.

Even before polling began, Cain’s numbers had sagged from his October heights as he battled accusations of sexual harassment and perceptions that he lacked knowledge on foreign policy issues.

On the first day of polling, his support stood at 12 percent. On the second of four days of calling, Atlanta businesswoman Ginger White went public with her accusation of a 13-year extramarital affair. His support dropped steadily over the four-day poll to 4 percent Wednesday.

The race is far from settled. Eleven percent of likely caucusgoers are uncommitted to a first choice, and 60 percent are still willing to change their mind.

One notable finding: The results show Gingrich’s ascendancy has the potential to grow, pollster J. Ann Selzer said.

More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43 percent of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second.

The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 3. The Iowa Poll, a Register exclusive since 1943, is a much-watched indicator of how candidates are faring in the nation’s leadoff caucus state.

Detailed results and analysis by Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich will appear in the Des Moines Sunday Register and online Sunday morning.

Jennifer Jacobs: Iowa Poll: Herman Cain support in Iowa takes nose dive

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/02/iowa-poll-cain-support-in-iowa-takes-nose-dive/

Jennifer Jacobs: 4:00AM, Dec. 2, 2011

Herman Cain’s once-surging popularity in Iowa has plummeted in the wake of an allegation of a 13-year extramarital affair, leaving him at single-digit support with the Iowa caucuses just over a month away.

Cain is now at 8 percent among likely Republican caucusgoers, The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll shows. That’s down from 23 percent in late October.

The former Godfather’s Pizza CEO is to huddle with his family late today as he reassesses his bid for the White House.

Although Cain has denied the affair, bad feelings about him doubled during the time the poll was in the field, from Sunday through Wednesday.

On a question about the candidate most likely to have a scandal in the White House, Cain’s numbers rose from 25 percent at the start of polling, then to 36 percent, and to 47 percent at the end of polling.

Asked which candidate caucusgoers most want to see in person, Cain was at 22 percent in a two-day rolling average of Sunday and Monday polling. That fell to 8 percent for the Tuesday-Wednesday results.

Poll respondent Carol Bohlen, 61, a retired Fort Dodge resident, said she wouldn’t support Cain if he were the nominee because she questions his knowledge of the issues.

“You have to know all the issues, foreign, domestic everything,” she said. Plus, “I just feel there’s too much coming out about his past, and I don’t think that would be very presidential.”

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers Nov. 27-30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

On the second of four days of calling for the poll, Atlanta businesswoman Ginger White went public with her accusation of the affair, saying, “It was pretty simple. It wasn’t complicated. I was aware that he was married. And I was also aware I was involved in a very inappropriate situation, relationship.”

Cain’s support was slumping before her allegation. On Oct. 31, accusations of sexual harassment first surfaced involving his tenure as head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s. He stumbled in explaining U.S. policy toward Libya in a meeting with a Wisconsin newspaper’s editorial board, and his foreign policy responses in subsequent debates were criticized as shallow.

On Sunday, the first day of polling, his support stood at 12 percent. That dropped steadily over the four-day poll to 4 percent Wednesday.

Respondents blast knowledge of issues

Poll respondents contacted by the Register on Thursday said the major drawback is that Cain doesn’t have a handle on important issues. But having five women essentially call him a liar isn’t helping, they said.

The new poll shows 27 percent of likely caucusgoers think he’s the “least knowledgeable” of the 2012 field, topping all candidates in that category.

Farmer Chris Mason, 24, of Early, who named Cain as the candidate he likes least, soured on Cain’s ideas for the economy.

“I’m just not 100 percent sold on some of the policies that he’s offered, 9-9-9 being one of them,” he said, referring to Cain’s much-touted tax-cut plan.

Mason isn’t too concerned about whether the sex-related allegations are true or not.

“Everyone’s entitled to their personal life, but I see that as a stumbling point for him with specific blocs of the voting demographic,” he said.

After the first round of sex-related allegations, Cain’s support initially held. Just a couple of weeks ago, he was still the front-runner in Iowa, with 20 percent support, according to a Bloomberg News poll.

But he is now below his standing in the Register’s first poll of the caucus cycle, in June, when he claimed 10 percent.

“I think Cain’s over,” Republican strategist Mike Murphy said Thursday. “In the preseason, Iowans are willing to sample different candidates. At the first look, he’s a charming man, and people like him.”

But after the second and third look, “caucusgoers have reassessed his candidacy, and they don’t like what they see,” said Murphy, who has advised several presidential candidates, including John McCain in 2000 and Lamar Alexander in 1995, but is currently not aligned with any campaign.

Eleven percent said Cain is the candidate they like least.

In October, only 3 percent liked him least.

Strategist: He must go all-out in Iowa

Republican strategist David Polyansky said for Cain to survive, he would need to be in Iowa almost constantly, pushing his message out to the grass roots, while his campaign organizes in every county.

“It’s just that simple — to become a real Iowa campaign, which to date, they really have not,” said Polyansky, who worked for Mike Huckabee’s campaign four years ago and for Michele Bachmann’s 2012 campaign until September.

All hope is not lost, several poll respondents said.

Amy Putney, 30, of Readlyn said she doesn’t dwell on the sex scandals because “those things are inevitable. Every candidate is going to have something that comes out about them that’s not favorable.”

Although Cain is not her favorite, he remains in her top three, Putney said.

Cain’s chief of staff, Mark Block, met with his four-person Iowa team at its Urbandale office Thursday and told them the campaign will continue.

“The emphatic message is that the campaign is full steam ahead,” Communications Director Lisa Lockwood said in an email. “Herman Cain is in it to win it. He always has been, and that has not changed.”

Steve Grubbs, Cain’s Iowa chairman, said Thursday that Cain’s recovery would be a multistep process.

The campaign needs a couple of drama-free weeks — unlike the last four, Grubbs said.

Cain needs to be in Iowa on the stump, Grubbs said, and he needs to do very well in the two Iowa debates.

Voters must hear Cain’s message, without the filter of the news media, via paid advertisements, he said.

And if he finishes in the top three in Iowa, he shouldn’t try to fight for New Hampshire, but instead move on to claim hearts in South Carolina and Florida, Grubbs said.

But the big question is whether enough time remains before the Jan. 3 caucuses for Cain to salvage his reputation.

Grubbs acknowledged that progress in Iowa slowed this week: The campaign lost about 2 percent of its precinct captains. Still, 901 precinct captains remain loyal, Grubbs said.

“A good organization can deliver more votes than a candidate who might be polling high that doesn’t have the turnout mechanism in place,” he noted.

Cain has said he won’t make any decision about his campaign until he can speak face-to-face with his wife, Gloria, this weekend. He has said that he will arrive home today.

Look for more poll results this weekend

• Saturday night: A summary of where all the candidates stand in the race will be published here at 7 p.m.
• Sunday: Detailed analysis and results will be published in the Des Moines Sunday Register.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 27-30 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 2,222 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 401 said they would definitely or probably participate in the January 2012 Republican caucus. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone, stratifying contact by age. The full sample of 2,222 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 401 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. The two-day rolling averages have a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 percentage points. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.

Alex Roarty: Poll: Obama’s Job Approval Still Underwater

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/poll-obama-s-job-approval-still-underwater-20111123

Survey also finds Occupy Wall Street slightly more unpopular than tea party.

By Alex Roarty

Updated: November 23, 2011 | 6:45 a.m.
November 23, 2011 | 6:00 a.m.

A new Quinnipiac Poll released on Wednesday underscores the deep challenges facing President Obama next year, particularly when it comes to the groups he needs to win over for his reelection.

Only 44 percent of registered voters approve of Obama’s performance, while half of the country disapproves of his performance, according to the survey. His job-approval rating is only at 42 percent among independents.

White voters continue to view Obama negatively -- just 37 percent back the job he has done as president, the poll found, including only 34 percent of blue-collar whites. The numbers are better among whites with a college degree –- 42 percent support Obama –- but that’s still a notable drop-off from the support he received in 2008. Then, 47 percent of whites with a college degree voted for Obama, according to exit polling.

Obama is also suffering a significant dropoff in support among Hispanics: 56 percent approve of the president’s performance. He won 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. The contest for the Latino vote, which is concentrated in battleground states like Colorado and Nevada, will be pivotal.

Other numbers in the survey paint a similarly challenging picture for Obama. Only 45 percent of voters think he deserves reelection; 48 percent think he doesn’t. He has a dismal 33 percent approval rating on the economy.

Most damaging, 81 percent of respondents say they are somewhat or very dissatisfied with the country’s direction – including 50 percent who say they are very dissatisfied. That “right track, wrong track” question has historically been a key indicator of a president’s reelection chances.

The poll also showed that a plurality of voters support overturning Obama’s health care law, whether through congressional or judicial action. Forty-seven percent want lawmakers to repeal the law (41 percent don’t), while 48 percent want the Supreme Court to overturn it (40 percent don’t). The Supreme Court is slated to review the law next year.

Congressional Democrats hold a narrow advantage on the generic ballot, 40 percent to 36 percent over Republicans. Among independents, Democrats hold a 33 percent to 31 percent lead.

But the public has soured on the movement some Democratic leaders have tried to associate itself with, Occupy Wall Street. Occupy Wall Street is now viewed favorably by only 29 percent of voters, the same percentage that favors the tea party. But the OWS unfavorable rating is at 44 percent in the Quinnipiac Poll, compared with a 42 percent unfavorable rating for the tea party.

Quinnipiac conducted the poll from Nov. 14 to Nov. 20, surveying 2,552 registered voters on landlines and cell phones. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percent.

Lesley Clark: Poll: Glimmer of hope on economy, Obama's handling of it

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/11/21/130964/poll-glimmer-of-hope-on-economy.html#ixzz1f8S1m66x

By Lesley Clark | McClatchy Newspapers
Monday, November 21, 2011

WASHINGTON — A nearly 2-1 majority of voters think that President Barack Obama inherited, rather than caused, today's slumping economy, and more Americans trust him to create jobs than they do the Republicans in Congress, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Half of U.S. adults think that Obama's push to create jobs will do more good than harm, while 40 percent say the opposite. The president has spent the fall prodding Congress to pass his $447 billion job-creation package, and he signed legislation Monday to give tax credits to businesses that hire unemployed veterans.

The Nov. 8-10 survey of 1,026 adults, including 872 registered voters, found a populace that's still glum about the nation's economic outlook: Nearly three out of four think the country is in a recession — although the official scorekeeper of these things, the National Bureau of Economic Research, says the recession ended in 2009 — and 53 percent think that "the worst is yet to come," while 41 percent think the worst is behind us.

The number who think the country is in a recession had declined slightly since July, and those who think that the worst is "yet to come" declined significantly since August, when 68 percent of Americans said that was what they thought.

"We're generally seeing some minor or slight improvement in some of the measures," Marist poll director Lee Miringoff said. "It's no big flip, no big turnaround, but perhaps an inkling that things are starting to improve."

Likewise, there's been little movement in expectations for personal family finances. Only 22 percent expect them to get better in the coming year, while 59 percent expect them to "stay about the same." In September the comparable figures were 28 percent and 55 percent.

The poll found that 60 percent of registered voters think that Obama inherited the current economic conditions — a finding that's held fairly steady for two years — while 32 percent blame his policies. The findings reflect a partisan split: Fifty-nine percent of Republicans said they thought the current economic conditions were mostly a result of the president's policies, while just 12 percent of Democrats blamed Obama. Sixty-two percent of independents said the president inherited the current economy.

The public is more narrowly divided over whom to trust with creating jobs: Forty-six percent said Obama and 42 percent said Republicans in Congress. Independents sided with the president by 44 percent to 41 percent for congressional Republicans. The rest were unsure.

As Obama takes his push for the jobs package to New Hampshire on Tuesday, the survey found that 50 percent think that the package will do more good than harm; 40 percent think it will do more harm than good. Those ages 18 to 29 are especially impressed with the plan: Sixty-nine percent said it would do more good than harm. Positive ratings fell with age groups, with those 60 and over divided evenly, 45-45 percent.

"This is nothing to write home about for Obama, but it's a slight modification on what has been some pretty dire news on the economic front for some time," Miringoff said.

The poll's error margin is plus or minus 3 percentage points overall, and 3.5 percentage points for registered voters.