NEWT GINGRICH
June: 7 percent
October: 7 percent
November: 25 percent
It’s a three-person race, but there’s a clear leader, The Des Moines Register’s pollster J. Ann Selzer said.
Gingrich holds a 7-point lead over Ron Paul (18 percent) and a 9-point advantage over Mitt Romney (16 percent).
One indication of solidity in Gingrich’s position as front-runner, Selzer said, is that he leads with definite as well as probable caucus attendees.
Gingrich leads on seven of the 13 positive attributes tested, including three with at least half of respondents. Respondents think he’s the most experienced and most knowledgeable about the world (58 percent each) and the best debater (50 percent).
He leads four other categories by narrower margins: best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together, best able to bring about real change, most like Ronald Reagan and best able to turn around the economy.
Gingrich does best with seniors (37 percent) and very conservative caucusgoers (35 percent).
He’s a veteran Washington insider, yet he leads with tea partiers (30 percent), and especially with those who consider themselves strong tea party supporters (43 percent). He does better than average with those who are very conservative fiscally (30 percent), very conservative socially (31 percent), and with those who consider themselves born-again Christians (30 percent).
There’s an appetite for more of Gingrich: 26 percent say they would like to see him in person before the caucuses, ahead of Perry at 17 percent, Cain at 16 percent and Romney at 15 percent.
RON PAUL
June: 7 percent
October: 12 percent
November: 18 percent
Paul’s 18 percent showing is basically the same as in Bloomberg News’ mid-November poll (19 percent).
The Texas congressman leads in two of the 13 positive attributes tested: 32 percent say he is the most fiscally responsible candidate in the field, and 24 percent say he is the most principled.
But a category-leading 19 percent say he is the most negative.
Paul all but ties with Gingrich among first-time caucus attenders (Paul is 19 percent to Gingrich’s 20 percent).
“This may indicate his campaign organization is focused on recruiting newcomers,” Selzer said.
Paul’s organizational strength shows in the 15 percent who say they’ve seen him in person, second only to Bachmann at 20 percent.
Paul leads the field with the under-35 crowd (26 percent).
MITT ROMNEY
June: 23 percent
October: 22 percent
November: 16 percent
This is the first time this cycle that Romney hasn’t hit at least 20 percent in a Register poll.
If Romney’s campaign aides want to play down expectations about how well he can do in the Iowa caucuses, this poll will help.
Still, the results continue to reflect strengths: He is considered the most electable in the general election (38 percent), the most presidential (34 percent) and the most likeable (19 percent).
Anti-Romney sentiment may be a factor in Iowa, but it’s not as extraordinary as sometimes portrayed, Selzer said.
On a question about which candidate caucus-goers like least, five of the eight candidates draw double-digits: Bachmann and Romney at 15 percent, Paul at 13 percent, Cain at 11 percent, and Perry at 10 percent. More men dislike Romney (18 percent). More women dislike Bachmann (19 percent).
Strong tea party supporters are the most opposed to Romney, with 32 percent saying he is the one they like least. This is a group that’s strongly on board with Gingrich.
There is about the same appetite to see more of Romney in Iowa (15 percent) as exists for other candidates. The exceptions are Gingrich, with 26 percent, and Huntsman at the low end, with 7 percent.
Romney takes second place among independents (19 percent to Paul’s 38 percent), and with the small number of moderates and liberals (20 percent to Paul’s 27 percent).
He takes second to Gingrich among the most affluent (23 percent to Gingrich’s 28 percent among those reporting income of $70,000 or more).
MICHELE BACHMANN
June: 22 percent
October: 8 percent
November: 8 percent
Bachmann, winner of the Iowa straw poll in August, has maintained her support since October, but that’s a steep drop-off compared with June, when she polled at 22 percent, second only to Romney’s 23 percent.
Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman, is the candidate more likely caucusgoers have seen than any other, at 20 percent.
In the least-liked contest, Bachmann gets the blue ribbon. Romney shares her company, with 15 percent.
Women dislike her more than any other candidate (19 percent).
Where Bachmann leads is in her reputation for opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage: 27 percent say she is the most socially conservative. That’s the only category she leads of the 13 positive attributes tested.
HERMAN CAIN (CAMPAIGN NOW SUSPENDED)
June: 10 percent
October: 23 percent
November: 8 percent
The retired Godfather’s Pizza chief executive was the front-runner in Iowa for at least the last month, according to polling by Selzer & Co.
He was at 23 percent in the October Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 23-26. A Bloomberg News poll in Iowa in mid-November, also conducted by Selzer, had him leading the field at 20 percent.
In the October poll, Cain owned the likability factor: Only 3 percent named him as the candidate they liked least, best of the field. In this poll, 11 percent said Cain was their least-liked.
Even before polling began, Cain’s numbers had sagged from his October heights. On the first day of polling, his support stood at 12 percent. On the second of four days of calling, Atlanta businesswoman Ginger White went public with her accusation of a 13-year extramarital affair.
His support dropped steadily over the four-day poll to 4 percent Wednesday.
In attributes tested, Cain led in two undesirable categories: 35 percent said he would be most likely to have a scandal in the White House if elected, and 27 percent said he was the least knowledgeable.
He suspended his campaign Saturday.
RICK PERRY
June: Not yet in race
October: 7 percent
November: 6 percent
Perry, the Texas governor, is a second-choice candidate for 12 percent.
He was the last of the 2012 field to join the race, announcing his candidacy on Aug. 13.
Political analysts said Perry has seemed unpracticed. He spoke haltingly or, most famously, suffered a mental block in debates in front of national audiences.
Those who campaign for months in Iowa, speaking in living room after living room, hone their answers, Selzer said. “Iowa makes you a better candidate,” she said.
But Iowa’s likely caucusgoers have an interest in seeing Perry in person, the poll shows.
Seventeen percent say he’s the one they’d most like to see, second only to Gingrich (26 percent).
RICK SANTORUM
June: 4 percent
October: 5 percent
November: 6 percent
Santorum has climbed a 1-percentage-point stairstep each poll.
Adding first and second choices together, he just breaks into double digits at 10 percent. That’s lower than Bachmann at 19 percent.
The former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania doesn’t lead in any of the positive or negative attributes tested. He does best in most socially conservative (13 percent, behind Bachmann and Paul) and most principled (11 percent, behind Paul, Bachmann and Romney).
Santorum moved his family to Iowa for a short period before the Iowa straw poll in August, and he is the only candidate this cycle who has campaigned in all 99 counties — feats that don’t necessarily guarantee success.
Twelve percent of likely caucusgoers report seeing him in person, while 11 percent say they would like to.
Selzer said: “The fact he’s further on the right doesn’t help him this time around. That’s not where the mindset is.”
JON HUNTSMAN
June: 2 percent
October: 1 percent
November: 2 percent
Huntsman, a former Utah governor, has visited Iowa only once as a candidate, for a nationally televised GOP debate in August.
There is definitely an anti-Huntsman faction in Iowa. He ranks lowest, either alone or tied, in 12 of 13 positive attributes tested.
One positive: He and Santorum tie for least likely to have a scandal in the White House.
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