http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-01-01/iowa-voters/52318344/1?csp=34news
By Susan Page, Catalina Camia and Jackie Kucinich, USA Today
DES MOINES – Mary Troll watched former House speaker Newt Gingrich cry as he talked about his late mother and she listened to the campaign pitch of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, but as the moment of decision nears in Iowa she finds herself leaning toward former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
"It'll depend on my prayer and my gut," says Troll, 50, a stay-at-home mother of five from Grimes, Iowa.
She's not alone in delaying a firm and final decision. A Des Moines Register statewide survey released Saturday night — three days before the Iowa caucuses open the presidential season — found four in 10 likely caucus-goers say they have a first choice for the Republican presidential nominee but still might change their minds.
The fluidity of the race was apparent in interviews with Iowans by USA TODAY reporters at a sports bar in Ames, a deli in Clinton, a coffee shop in Des Moines and an American Legion hall in Redfield. Voters discussed their priorities and concerns as they watched candidates make personal appeals and air a flood of TV and radio ads.
Andrew Petersen of East Des Moines says he's had trouble committing to a candidate because conservatives who have been elected before have "still grown government" once they got into office, despite their campaign promises. "I'm fearful that when they get into the White House, they'll do it anyway," he says.
For Elizabeth Zimmerman, 84, and daughter Diana Zimmerman, 53, it's taken more time than usual to settle on a candidate.
"It doesn't seem like one stands out from the crowd," says the elder Zimmerman, a retired teacher who had decided much earlier in the process to support George H.W. Bush in 1980 and George W. Bush in 2000. The two women came to a Romney meet-and-greet hoping he would address some nagging concerns.
"I worry he might not have enough charisma to beat (President) Obama," the elder Zimmerman says.
"And Romney-care," her daughter, a lawyer, chimes in, referring to the health care plan Romney signed as governor of Massachusetts that she finds suspiciously similar to Obama's health care plan.
Gingrich is also on their list of prospects. "But I have some concerns about him," Elizabeth Zimmerman says. Such as? "Maybe his volatile temperament and a tiny bit that he's had three marriages."
In the end, she says she's likely to support Romney.
In The Iowa Poll, taken Tuesday through Friday, Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul led the field, with 24% and 22% of likely caucus-goers. They were followed by Santorum at 15%, Gingrich at 12%, Perry at 11% and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 7%. Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, who hasn't campaigned here in favor of focusing on New Hampshire, was at 2%.
Over the four nights of polling, the Register reported there had been a significant shift of momentum: Santorum's support was surging as Paul's support ebbed.
The survey showed the different and sometimes conflicting priorities of Iowa voters as they weighed ideological purity, personal character and electability.
Romney was seen as the most electable and the best able to bring about change among those polled, but he was sank to fifth as the candidate best at relating to ordinary Iowans. Paul was rated the most ideologically consistent and the least ego-driven. Gingrich was judged to be the most knowledgeable by far.
Frank Seydel, a retired biochemist and pastor from Ames, voted for Bachmann at the Iowa's closely-watched straw poll in August but is now undecided. His wife, Linda, supported former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty at the straw poll; after a disappointing showing he dropped out of the race.
Since then, they have watched the nationally televised debates, read political blogs and dropped in to see various candidates to make a judgment about who would have the best chance of defeating Obama.
Bachmann? "I'm impressed with her as a candidate but … I'm concerned about her viability," he says. Romney comes across as smooth, polished, "rarely flappable" and has "conveyed a goal that could pull me in." Perry is "not as articulate as some of the others but he's Texas' longest-serving governor and that says a lot about his competence."
Then there's Gingrich, who is "clearly the intellectual," Seydel adds. "He just popcorns ideas all over the place. Half of those ideas don't work but a lot of (Thomas) Edison's ideas didn't work either."
The outcome will depend in large part on who bothers to show up at the caucuses. Romney is strongest among seniors, Paul with independents and younger voters, Santorum with evangelical Christians and the most fervent supporters of the Tea Party movement.
Steve Pfannes, a courier for FedEx from Boone, has supported Bachmann and Perry in the past but is now solidly behind Santorum.
"He used to be the little guy that no one listened to, but not anymore," he says. "He will take a defeat before he changes his principles and that's why I'm for him. He's fearless."
Pfannes went to Ames to catch a Santorum event at a sports bar. "I want to see his face," he says, reflecting an attitude that has defined the Iowa caucuses. "I've seen him on TV, but that's different than up close."
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