By Alex Roarty
Is Newt Gingrich losing his place at the head of the GOP presidential field? The fate suffered by previous Republican front-runners suggests his support might be about to fall off a cliff.
Polling data assembled by my colleague Scott Bland shows a similar timeline for the candidates who momentarily claimed the race's front-runner's mantle: Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Georgia businessman Herman Cain (and to a lesser degree, Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann) each rocketed past their opponents, led for about a month, and eventually collapsed.
Take Perry. According to polling from CNN/ORC, the governor rose quickly to race-leading 27 percent in late August, just weeks after officially becoming a candidate. He peaked a few weeks later at 30 percent, the poll found, and held at 28 percent in late September, roughly a month after the first CNN/ORC poll found him in first place. But by mid-October, the Texan had slipped to 13 percent.
Cain's campaign followed the same patter pattern. As Perry fell, the former pizza magnate reached 25 percent in a mid-October poll from CNN/ORC. A month afterward, battered by accusations from multiple women of sexual misconduct, he fell to 14 percent. Bachmann never rose to the heights of either man, but her time as a favorite of the tea party (the voters who have propelled both Perry and Cain) also lasted for roughly one month.
So, when did the former speaker of the House reach the top of the Republican race? About a month ago, when he reached 24 percent in a CNN/ORC poll conducted from Nov. 18 to Nov. 20. And there are signs his numbers are now dropping precipitously. Gallup's daily tracking poll reported his support has dropped nearly 10 points in a week, from a high of 37 percent on Dec. 8 to 28 percent this weekend. Over the same time, his lead over his Mitt Romney has shrunk from 14 percentage points to just 4 points now.
If the path of his predecessors is any indication, Gingrich's numbers will continue their rapid descent. Perry's support halved in a matter of weeks, and he now sits in single digits in most national polls. Cain's share of the vote was quickly plummeting to similar territory before he suspended his campaign. Perry, just like Bachmann, was unable to staunch implosion, and has yet to recover from the collapse.
The month-long staying power makes sense: It gives enough opportunity for the news media and opponents to scrutinize the newly christened front-runner for flaws (a process already begun in earnest with Gingrich) and thus far many hardline conservatives have been disappointed after getting a closer look. Many of them, especially Perry, have withered under the harsh glare during debates and on the campaign trail.
Gingrich's candidacy does have several variables that could complicate whether he too falls just as hard. For one, it's not readily apparent which candidate conservative voters could flock to instead. In every other case, when a GOP candidate flopped there was a concurrent rise in one of their rivals. Bachmann was succeeded by Perry, who was supplanted by Cain, who gave way to Gingrich.
Voters could re-examine one of those candidates, or could they look to someone new like former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum or ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. So far, none of those candidates appear to have much momentum, either in the news or in the polls. Texas Rep. Ron Paul could benefit in Iowa - and that would have huge implications for the Republican race - but he has yet to rise very high in national polls.
Despite being hammered over past ideological deviations and receiving $1.6 million to advise Freddie Mac, Gingrich has also yet to stumble as Perry did during the debates. He also hasn't faced accusations nearly as grave as the ones Cain did; his long history with the GOP means many voters were likely familiar with Gingrich's past in a way they weren't for Perry or Cain. And his decline might happen slow enough that he can still hang on to win Iowa, which would re-ignite his candidacy.
If that happens, he'll have walked a path different than other fallen GOP candidates.
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