By JENNIFER JACOBS, The Des Moines Register
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Former business executives Herman Cain and Mitt Romney lead the Republican field in Iowa in an election cycle in which likely GOP caucusgoers favor business experience over elective experience as a qualification for the presidency.
The other contenders, despite their focus on the Hawkeye State, trail 10 percentage points or more.
The power of Cain's likability has vaulted him to the top of The Des Moines Register's with 23 percent of likely caucusgoers saying he is their first choice. The durable Romney, on part two of his presidential quest, coasts in with 22 percent.
"You always look at these polls like they predict the future, and all they do is measure the noise of the last two weeks," said longtime GOP national campaign strategist Mike Murphy. But at this moment, "it is a Cain/Romney race."
The survey lays bare some serious vulnerabilities for the steady-as-he-goes Romney, despite months among the leaders of national polls and the plaudits he's won as a debater.
The former Massachusetts governor earns the support of just 10 percent of those who say they definitely plan to vote in the caucuses (Cain is at 27 percent). And Cain dominates Romney among those who identify themselves as very conservative, by more than 3-to-1.
However, Romney is the favorite of women, seniors, first-time caucusgoers and those who call themselves moderates or liberals. He also leads among those whose minds are made up.
Cain, a former executive of burger and pizza chains, leads by at least a 5-point margin among men, the most conservative voters, tea party supporters, born-again Christians and those ages 35 to 54.
Another factor favoring Cain over Romney: More than half of likely caucusgoers think a representative of the core conservative base can win the White House in 2012. Only a third see a need to select a more moderate candidate with appeal to independents.
The race remains highly volatile. At this point, 59 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to support another candidate. Fifteen percent have no first choice right now. Just a quarter who have a first choice say their mind is made up.
The telephone survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 23-26, roughly 10 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the nation's presidential nominating process. The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The rest of the field
The only other candidate in double digits is Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, in third place with 12 percent. That's a 5-point increase from the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in June.
In the June poll, Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann topped the field with 23 percent and 22 percent. Cain ranked third at 10 percent. Since then, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has left the race, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry has joined it.
Support for Bachmann has cratered, dropping to 8 percent, as tea partiers and born-again Christians turn elsewhere.
Perry lit up the national polls when he entered the race in August. But if his support ever ignited in Iowa, the fireworks have burned out. He's at 7 percent, tied with Newt Gingrich.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, despite his sweat on the Iowa campaign trail, is lodged in the lower tier at 5 percent.
Romney has campaigned in Iowa just three times this year and skipped the Iowa straw poll in August. Cain has visited only once since the straw poll. The message to candidates seems to be: The less you're here, the more we like you.
One candidate defies that theory: Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who was here for a debate in August and hasn't been seen since. He's at 1 percent.
Choice could change
The race has been a fever chart of mood swings, with conservatives teased by potential candidates from real estate mogul Donald Trump to Alaska's Sarah Palin to New Jersey's Chris Christie. First Bachmann then Perry then Cain have seen surges in support nationally.
The fact that 74 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers currently have no first choice or could be persuaded to switch their first choice demonstrates soft support and a wide-open electorate, said Republican strategist Mary Matalin.
"The dynamic remains Romney versus non-Romney, with Romney still unable to penetrate his ceiling, and the non-Romney vote still showing no consolidation," Matalin said.
Fellow GOP strategist Murphy said it may seem as if people are switching around a lot, but the truth is, they're just not with anybody yet.
"People are kind of window shopping," Murphy said. "It feels to us in the media this campaign has been going on for a year, but in voter world, this is the second inning at best."
For now, the smoking-hot Cain has punched into front-runner status in Iowa -- despite alarming some conservatives with his comments four days before polling began implying that abortion is a choice best left to families. He has since insisted he opposes abortion, no exceptions.
"I just like him," explained Lynn Borland, 45, a medical transcriptionist from Independence. "He seems to make sense."
Born-again Christians make up 37 percent of the poll. By more than 2-to-1, they go to Cain over Bachmann. Similarly, of the 45 percent of respondents who consider themselves very conservative on social issues, Cain leads the field with 24 percent, again by a 2-to-1 margin over Bachmann.
It was in an Iowa Poll published in early December 2007 that former Baptist minister and eventual Iowa caucuses winner Mike Huckabee overtook Romney. As that point nears this election cycle, neither Cain nor Romney has a strong lead. A sign of just how unsettled the choices are: Thirty percent of Cain backers name Romney as their next-best choice, and vice versa for Romney backers.
Business skill prized
In an economy with the national unemployment rate stuck at 9 percent, a resounding 71 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say business experience is more important than having held elective office. Twenty-two percent say time in elective office is more critical.
Cain campaigns as a business turnaround artist, transforming underperforming Burger Kings for Pillsbury and steering Godfather's Pizza away from the brink of bankruptcy. Romney ran two companies, Bain & Co. and Bain Capital. Bain Capital was known for investing in or buying companies, some of which were faltering, then reorganizing them. He cites Staples, Domino's Pizza and Sports Authority as some of his successes.
Among those who say business experience makes the best presidential resume, Cain leads Romney, 29 percent to 22 percent. Among those who think experience in office is more important, it's Romney with 24 percent, and Perry at 16 percent.
"This may be the only highlight for Perry in this poll," pollster J. Ann Selzer said.
Perhaps Romney's biggest problem versus Cain boils down to likability.
Romney is second only to Bachmann as the candidate likely caucusgoers like least. He's most disliked by those who describe themselves as very conservative (30 percent).
More tea party supporters (19 percent) pick Romney as their least liked than any other candidate.
Romney is strongest among those 65 and older, but they're an iffy voting pool this year, less committed to caucus than they've been in the past.
In contrast, only 3 percent name Cain as their least-liked candidate.
Selzer said: "I can't say there's any underlying weakness for him like we see for Romney."
A long way to go
Voters should keep in mind that this poll came before TV advertising in Iowa that could be a factor going forward, Murphy said. The well-financed Perry set a TV blitz in motion in Iowa on Wednesday.
Murphy said he suspects Cain's numbers are soft, and will soon ebb.
While Republican politics watchers have barely sensed a pulse in Cain's Iowa organization until the last week or two, Romney has Iowa teed up, they say. His list of supporters, cemented with holdovers from his intense Iowa effort four years ago, is viewed as stronger than any other candidate's.
If Romney commits to campaigning harder in Iowa, his path won't be easy, Murphy said, but he could earn back-to-back wins here and in New Hampshire that would devastate other campaigns.
Matalin noted that a campaign's organizational edge plays an outsized role in Iowa in getting would-be voters to caucus on a cold January night.
The avalanche of campaigning in Iowa starts now.
"You always look at these polls like they predict the future, and all they do is measure the noise of the last two weeks," said longtime GOP national campaign strategist Mike Murphy. But at this moment, "it is a Cain/Romney race."
The telephone survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 23-26, roughly 10 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the nation's presidential nominating process. The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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