Alex Roarty: Political Insiders Poll

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/obama-s-chances-immigration-as-an-issue-20120426

By Alex Roarty, Naureen Khan and Peter Bell

Updated:
April 26, 2012 | 3:00 p.m.

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)

Average: 7.1

Slight chance (1-3): 0%
Moderate chance (4-6):  31%
Strong chance (7-10): 69%

Moderate chance (4-6)

“We will be returning to a 2000 or 2004 Electoral College squeaker election.”

“McCain won 47 percent. If you think Romney won’t win that same number, you’re a fool. I call that a close election.”

“The voters who matter like him, are disappointed in the job he is doing, and have serious doubts about the apparent Republican nominee. On these facts, the nod goes to the devil they know.”

“It’ll be close, but Obama’s strength with nonwhite voters may be enough to eke it out over Romney.”

“As long as the Fed keeps up the slow and steady support, Obama will have a positive-trajectory economy to win on.”

“Romney is such a lousy candidate. Despite a long list of reasons why Obama shouldn’t win, he will.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“Close, yes. But this isn’t the year of the millionaire corporate raider.”

“Economy rebounding, Mitt’s disastrous primary performance, and the head-to-head matchup all work in his favor.”

“Demographics are destiny, and they really favor Obama, who also understands them.”

“By November no one worried about their job will believe Romney is worried about their job, too.”

“Mitt Romney could barely get the Republican base excited. It smells like 1996, but who knows, it might even be 1984.”

“Immigration, the Ryan plan, the ‘Buffett Rule,’ Osama [bin Laden], and GM. Not as close as people think.”

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely is it that President Obama will win reelection?

REPUBLICANS (99 VOTES)

Average: 5

Slight chance (1-3): 11%
Moderate chance (4-6): 76%
Strong chance (7-10): 13%

Slight chance (1-3)

“Tough to win with an economy that’s softening once more [and] being overseen by a guy who never worked in the private sector.”

“If the election is about his record, the president can’t win. He will try hard to avoid running on his record, and he might succeed.”

Moderate chance (4-6)

“I’m starting to sense another 1980.”

“This election can truly go either way—and could make 2000 look like a landslide.”

“The lessening of the economic headwinds have made this race a virtual toss-up.”

“If it is a referendum on Obama and the economy, Obama loses.”

“The ‘black swan’ (unforeseen major event) will likely come from abroad, melting Obama’s numbers. He is simply out of his depth.”

“[The] election is a referendum on his economic policies. They are not that great.”

“The demographics are on his side. By the fall, we Republicans will be wondering what happened to the Southwest swing states.”

“The Republicans have the potential of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory—have to try to avoid further alienation of women and Hispanics, but economy will continue to be the issue.”

Strong chance (7-10)

“His strategy is to lay the blame for the economic crisis on the Bush administration, offer no solutions for the future, and draw out Republicans on their extreme social agenda—a trap they will fall into with relative ease.”

How do you think the immigration issue will affect your party’s prospects in November?

DEMOCRATS (100 VOTES)

Help a lot: 34%
Help a little: 47%
No effect: 14%
Hurt a little: 5%
Hurt a lot: 0%

Help a lot

“Mitt’s ‘deport-them-all’ primary position will be hard to walk back.”

“Can you say Nevada, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico?”

“If I was a Republican playing the long game, I’d stop trying to throw people out of the country who’ve lived here a long time. The long-run trend is bad for Rs.”

“Put bluntly, Latinos think Republicans hate them.”

“This issue will pay dividends for Democrats for generations to come.”

Help a little

“Would be more except for the increasing evangelism of Hispanic-Americans eligible to vote.”

“Immigration has the potential to inspire turnout on the Democratic side. While the same might be true for Republicans, the turnout would not be coming from a lower-turnout group.”

“Latino voters in some states may be upset at the Republicans’ posturing on immigration during the primary season, but it is not a game-changer. Let’s face it—it’s not like Republicans were planning on winning 40 percent of the Latino vote in any scenario.”

“It would help more if we were actually working to advance the solution more.”

“Will be crushing for Romney when he’s hit with million [dollars] of ads on Hispanic TV relating his love for the Arizona immigration law.”

No effect

“It’s a polarizing issue, and those on both sides have their minds made up. They’re not persuadable, and it’s unlikely anything will happen on it anyway.”

Hurt a little

“We should have done more on the issue.”

How do you think the immigration issue will affect your party’s prospects in November?

REPUBLICANS (100 VOTES)

Help a lot: 1%
Help a little: 8%
No effect: 30%
Hurt a little: 54%
Hurt a lot: 7%

Help a lot

“It rallies our base and reminds voters that Obama has promised—but done nothing—for three years.”

No effect

“It’s the economy, still, stupid.”

“This issue cuts sharply ... both ways.”

“The immigration opportunity sailed long ago for Republicans. Bad economy has slowed the flow. Zero impact.”

“Did it help John McCain any to be strongly pro-immigration?”

Hurt a little

“Romney should have been the Republican to defend the American Dream, but he pandered to the fringeinstead. Very disappointing, and now he’ll pay a price.”

“2012 may be the last national election that Republicans can win without having addressed broad immigration reform successfully. Has to get done.”

“Our saving grace is that the economy is far more important than immigration, even with Hispanic voters.”

“Republicans are on the wrong side of history on immigration, but the Romney team has time to fix the problem.”

“Romney needs a ‘compassionate conservative’ answer on this.  Otherwise, Obama’s scare tactics will hurt him badly with Hispanics.”

“A little now, a lot in 20 years and forever after that.”

“We will find out.… If we lose Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, the answer changes to a lot.”

Hurt a lot

“Republicans have chosen to be hostile to the idea of the melting pot. Historically, nationalistic zealotry has always had a backlash in presidential elections.”

______________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appeared in the Saturday, April 28, 2012 edition of National Journal.

Joshua Miller: New York: Buerkle Up Against Maffei in New Poll

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-ann-marie-buerkle-up-against-dan-maffei-new-poll/

By Joshua Miller Posted at 12:04 a.m. on April 24

Freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.), whose re-election prospects were damaged by redistricting, begins the race with a slight lead, according to a GOP poll obtained by Roll Call.

Buerkle led former Rep. Dan Maffei 42 percent to 38 percent, while 20 percent were undecided in the poll of 400 likely general election voters in the reconfigured 24th district.

Buerkle struggled mightily with fundraising during her first year in Congress. But her allies say her operation has turned around. They point to the fact that she raised $238,000 in the first quarter of the year, the most she’s raised in any quarter of her political career. But after posting dismal numbers ($89,000 in the third quarter of 2011), it’s a dubious achievement.

Still, with this poll, the conventional wisdom about Buerkle and her low chances of coming back to Washington, D.C., in January may begin to change.

The McLaughlin & Associates survey, conducted by live telephone interview April 16-17, had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis: Obama Edges Romney: Poll

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-19/obama-edges-romney-christie-favored-for-running-mate

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis on April 19, 2012

President Barack Obama holds a small lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll showing a tight contest fueled by voter discontent with the president’s handling of the economy.

Obama drew support from 46 percent of registered voters and held a large advantage among women. Romney was backed by 42 percent in the poll and held slight edges over the president on the economy, creating jobs and dealing with gasoline prices and immigration.

More troublesome for Obama, the poll, conducted April 11- 17, found voters unhappy with his handling of the economy, with 56 percent saying they disapprove compared with 38 percent who approve.

The results suggest voters view Obama and Romney along lines similar to the partisan differences that have marked other close elections of the recent past, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama “has a big lead among women and is seen as the candidate most in tune with their needs,” Brown said in a statement released with the poll. “He is seen as more in touch with average Americans,” and “Romney seems to hold an edge on the economy -- the top issue of the campaign -- and holds his own against the incumbent on being a strong leader.”

Leadership Question

Sixty-one percent said Romney has strong leadership qualities, compared with 60 percent for Obama -- a statistically insignificant difference in a poll whose margin of error is plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. Quinnipiac surveyed 2,577 voters.

Obama holds a 10-point advantage among women in the poll. He was backed by 49 percent compared with Romney’s 39 percent. Obama trails slightly with men, with 43 percent supporting him compared with Romney’s 46 percent.

The racial gap is wider, with Romney leading Obama among white voters 52 percent to 36 percent, while Obama bests the Republican among blacks, who support him 94 percent to 3 percent. Obama also leads among Hispanics, with 64 percent supporting the president compared with 24 percent for Romney.

The poll found that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who became a Romney supporter last year after declining entreaties from Republican leaders to challenge him for the nomination, is the best-known and best-liked of Romney’s potential vice presidential choices.

Good Choice

Thirty-one percent called Christie a good choice compared with 18 percent who disagreed and 49 percent who said they didn’t have an opinion. He drew support from 33 percent of independent voters, who could form a crucial swing bloc in November, with 18 percent of them saying he wouldn’t be a good selection.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, also mentioned as possible running mates for Romney, were next in line behind Christie, although not as well-known, with 58 percent saying they had “no opinion” of them.

Rubio drew support from 24 percent of all voters surveyed and 27 percent of independents, while Ryan was labeled a good choice by 23 percent overall and 25 percent of independents.

Other vice presidential prospects proved lesser known among voters, drawing “no opinion” counts above 60 percent.

“At this point, Christie, who recently said he would not rule out running with Romney, has an edge with the public, but the vice presidency goes to the winner of an election with one voter -- Mitt Romney,” Brown said.

Running Mate Search

Romney’s campaign has announced that senior adviser Beth Myers, his former gubernatorial chief of staff and 2008 campaign manager, would run his search for a running mate.

Christie told reporters April 17 that, while “I’m not looking to do it,” it would be “extraordinarily arrogant” of him not to listen to Romney if he were to ask him to join the Republican presidential ticket. If “Mitt Romney calls and wants to discuss it with me, I will sit down and talk with Governor Romney about it,” he said.

Rubio has repeatedly dismissed speculation that he would be Romney’s pick. “That’s not what I want to be; that’s not what I intend to be, and that’s not going to happen,” he told Fox News on March 27 when he endorsed Romney.

Ryan told the Wall Street Journal’s website in an April 11 video interview that he hasn’t considered being Romney’s running mate, saying, “It’s his decision months from now, not mine, so why spend my time thinking about it?”

Voters rated Obama more favorably than Romney on women’s issues -- 52 percent said he would do a better job compared with 32 percent for Romney.

The president also fared better on foreign policy, preferred by 46 percent compared with 40 percent for Romney.

Romney surpassed the president on handling of the economy, 47 percent to 43 percent; on creating jobs, 45 percent to Obama’s 42 percent; on gas prices, 44 percent to 31 percent; and on immigration, 43 percent to 39 percent. The two scored equally on taxes and health care.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at   or Jdavis159@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net

Joshua Miller: Gallup: Congressional Approval Ticks Up to 17 Percent

http://atr.rollcall.com/gallup-congressional-approval-ticks-up-to-17-percent/

By Joshua Miller Posted at 8:56 a.m. on April 19

Maybe Americans have learned to hate the game and not the players. But probably not.

Approval of the way Congress is handling its job ticked up to 17 percent, the highest since last July, according to the latest Gallup poll, released this morning.

That’s a bit higher than the all-time low of 10 percent in February.

Disapproval of Congress now stands at 79 percent, also the lowest disapproval number the respected polling company found since July.

Gallup noted that the upward trend in approval of Congress may be a lagging indicator of Americans’ increasing satisfaction with the way things are going generally in the United States. Republicans and Democrats view the way Congress is doing its job with about equal favorability.

The live telephone interview poll of 1,016 adults was conducted on cell phones and landlines from April 9-12. Using random digit dialing, Gallup interviewed Americans in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in English and Spanish. The poll had a margin of error of 4 points.

Kim Geiger: Polls: Americans divided over taxes but support 'Buffett rule'

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/16/news/la-pn-polls-americans-divided-over-taxes-but-support-buffett-rule-20120416


April 16, 2012|By Kim Geiger

As the Senate considers President Obama’s “Buffett rule” to require that millionaires and billionaires pay at least 30% income tax, a new poll suggests the proposal is quite popular with the American public.

Nearly three-quarters – 72% –  of Americans say they support the idea, according to a CNN survey of 1,015 Americans, including 910 registered voters.

While the proposal was favored more heavily by Democrats (90%), people who make less than $50,000 a year (79%), and people who live in urban areas (79%), a majority of all groups supported it, except for those who identify with the tea party movement and those who consider themselves conservatives.

Tea party supporters opposed the proposal 58% to 40%. Conservatives opposed it 49% to 51%, but people who identified as Republicans supported it 53% to 46%.

Meanwhile, less than half of Americans say their current tax bill is too high, according to a recent Gallup poll, which found the public divided on whether or not they pay too much.

Forty-seven percent said they think the amount they pay in federal income taxes is “just right,” while 46% said it is too high. Asked if they believe the amount they will pay in income taxes this year is “fair,” 59% said they consider it fair while 37% said they thought it was unfair.

Historically, the responses are not out of the norm. Americans have felt better about the taxes they pay – both the amount and the fairness of the tax – since the Bush tax cuts went into effect in the early 2000s.

But Americans had been growing less pleased with the tax situation in recent years. In 2011, 50% said the taxes they paid were too high, up from 48% in 2010. And 40% said they considered their income taxes unfair, up from 36% in 2010. The trend has reversed among people who make more than $30,000 a year,  but it has persisted among lower income Americans. In 2008, 27% of low-income Americans said their income taxes are not fair – today, it has climbed to 38%.

Gallup’s Lydia Saad observed in an analysis accompanying the poll findings that the discontent among low-income Americans may be due to the increased focus on taxes in political discourse.

“Perhaps because of the slow economy, or because of recent discussion of the ‘Buffett rule’  and President Barack Obama’s related interest in shifting a greater proportion of the nation’s tax bill to high-income Americans, low-income Americans have grown increasingly discontent since 2009 with the amount and fairness of their own taxes,” Saad wrote.

kim.geiger@latimes.com