Alex Roarty: Poll: Romney Gaining on Santorum in Pennsylvania

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/poll-romney-gaining-on-santorum-in-pennsylvania-20120403?mrefid=mostViewed

By Alex Roarty

Updated: April 3, 2012 | 8:03 a.m.
April 3, 2012 | 6:00 a.m.

Contrary his bullish predictions, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Rick Santorum could fall short of winning his home state’s Republican primary.

A new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican voters in Pennsylvania shows the ex-U.S. senator leads rival Mitt Romney there by just 6 percentage points, 41 percent to 35 percent, three weeks before the Keystone State’s April 24 contest. It’s the second recent poll to show Santorum holding only a slim margin over Romney. A survey from Franklin & Marshall College last week reported he led the Republican front-runner by only 2 points, 30 percent to 28 percent.

Santorum dismissed the Franklin & Marshall poll during an appearance Sunday on Meet the Press, and has said that he "absolutely" expects to win the state where he served as a senator for 12 years. But a second survey showing a close contest will be harder to ignore, particularly because it shows Santorum struggling to attract the same groups of voters who have been cool to him elsewhere.

Romney leads Santorum among voters with a college degree, 47 percent to 31 percent, and with self-described moderates in the Quinnipiac poll, 45 percent to 29 percent, a continuation of the strong support he's received from both types of GOP voters. The former Massachusetts governor also has a small edge among the party’s secular wing, winning with white, non-evangelical voters in the state 43 percent to 39 percent.

Santorum, meanwhile, holds a big advantage with born-again Christians, 53 percent to 24 percent, and among self-described conservatives, 48 percent to 30 percent -- two groups that have been the key to his earlier successes in the primary season.

Santorum himself acknowledged he must win his home state to continue his campaign. Even after he lost similar Rust Belt states like Ohio and Michigan, supporters have argued Santorum’s favorite-son status would push him to victory in Pennsylvania. He served as a congressman outside of Pittsburgh for four years from 1991 to 1995 and as a senator from 1995 to 2007.

But he suffered a humiliating reelection defeat in 2006, losing by nearly 20 points to Democratic challenger Bob Casey. And despite his extensive political ties there, many of the Keystone State Republican power brokers have lined up behind Romney, including former Gov. Tom Ridge.

The poll also casts doubt that the Romney campaign’s Etch A Sketch gaffe, in which a senior adviser compared the candidate’s political views to the children’s toy, has hindered his effort, at least among Republicans. Fifty-two percent of likely GOP voters in Pennsylvania said the criticism was unfair, compared to 37 percent who considered it fair.

Still, the poll contains some good news for Santorum: Fifty-seven percent of repondents said it’s better for the GOP if he stays in the race, compared to 33 percent who think his exit would help the party. Many in the Republican Party have begun calling for him to leave the race, a chorus that will grow only louder if he loses Wisconsin on Tuesday.

The survey also underscores the degree to which the primary has become a two-man race. Texas Rep. Ron Paul received only 10 percent support, while onetime House Speaker Newt Gingrich clocked in at just 7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 647 likely Republican voters from March 27 through April 1. It has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

Alex Roarty: Political Insiders Poll

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-politics-of-health-care-20120329

By Alex Roarty and Peter Bell

Updated:
March 29, 2012 | 4:00 p.m.

What will the political ramifications be if the Supreme Court strikes down all or part of the president’s health care law?

Democrats (101 votes)

Big win for Republicans: 34%
Small win for Republicans: 31%
Neither party gains: 16%
Small win for Democrats: 11%
Big win for Democrats: 9%

Big win for Republicans

“There’s nothing like ‘It’s unconstitutional’ for a talking point.”

“I think it is devastating to the administration and to perceptions of President Obama’s leadership. It would validate concerns that he is not governing from the center.”

“If the Court strikes the entire law, it will invalidate the signature achievement of the Obama administration. It may incite a backlash among supporters, but that will not be enough to make up for the loss of the law.”

Small win for Republicans

“Most of this issue has played out long ago, particularly in the 2010 cycle. It’s a GOP talking point, not a game change.”

“The devil is really in the details—for both the Democrats and the Republicans. How far does the Court go?”

“Republicans will have won bragging rights, and that certainly counts for something.”

“Don’t kid yourself—there’s no way you can put a smiley face on a loss.”

Neither party gains

“GOP win would translate to loss for millions of Americans deprived of adequate health care. It reopens the whole raucous debate.”

“It all depends on the spin. I hope the administration does better with a do-over.”

Small win for Democrats

“It will fire up the Democratic base, but it probably won’t move the needle with independents all that much one way or the other.”

Big win for Democrats

“It will galvanize the Democratic base to run against the Republican Court and Republican Congress.”

What will the political ramifications be if the Supreme Court strikes down all or part of the president’s health care law?

Republicans (101 votes)

Big win for Republicans: 55%
Small win for Republicans: 29%
Neither party gains: 9%
Small win for Democrats: 5%
Big win for Democrats: 3%

Big win for Republicans

“Win this one and everyone will see the emperor has no clothes. But the GOP needs a positive plan on health care—this issue isn’t going away.”

“A negative Supreme Court decision undercuts the Obama’s administration’s signature legislative achievement and reinforces the GOP narrative of a president in over his head.”

“Issue would remain polarizing, but independents would have credible reason to remain opposed to this administration’s addiction to government overreach.”

“Would enflame the Left against the high court but confirm for everyone else the recklessness and lack of judgment that went into the president’s manic push for the legislation.”

“His signature legislative achievement is found unconstitutional? I’d say that’s a setback.”

Small win for Republicans

“We get to say, ‘I told you so,’ but we lose a major issue for the fall.”

“If we are smart, it will be a defeat for Democrats and we won’t take credit or dance on the grave but instead will have an immediate alternative—if we are smart.”

“It will reinforce the public’s already negative view of Obama’s signature initiative, but don’t dismiss his willingness to try and seize the issue anew and reframe it.”

Neither party gains

“Helps both parties energize their base. Does not move indie voters who are preoccupied with jobs and job security.”

“Republicans will have proven their point, but the president can start campaigning on the issue all over again: There is still a demand for health care reform among the voters.”

Small win for Democrats

“It removes a millstone from their necks. Lots of Democrats secretly rooting for the Court to solve this problem for them.”

How well can Mitt Romney use the health care law to attack the president

Democrats (101 votes)

Very effectively: 1%
Effectively: 5%
Ineffectively: 48%
Very ineffectively: 47%

Ineffectively

“Obama just has to repeatedly show the picture of Teddy standing over Mitt at the Massachusetts signing ceremony.”

“There is an entire library of killer video of Romney on his support for the individual mandate that will be in ads in every swing state.”

“Hard for Romney to argue that state mandates are fine but federal mandates are not. More doublespeak from a flip-flopping phony.”

“He practically wrote the darn thing!”

“Since 90 percent of the Republican attack is based on the mandate, not a lot of daylight for Romney.”

“The message is too muddled. But I think the health care law will be a big liability for Obama even without Romney raising it.”

“Based on current polls, the GOP can score points on this issue, but Romney is a fundamentally flawed messenger. We’ll break out the Etch A Sketch every time ‘Obamacare’ crosses his lips.”

Very ineffectively

“In the most literal case, he’d be attacking his own record. But the Etch A Sketch candidate has done that and worse.”

“Not even Mitt can flip this flop.”

“The harder he tries, the worse he looks. Check off the box and move on.”

“It would be like Dick Cheney running against Obama and charging that he was reckless in getting us into war. Can’t be done—Santorum’s right about that. (And only that.)”

“Mitt’s now the godfather of the Health Care Reform Act. It will disappear as an issue because by talking too much about it, Mitt Romney only reinforces the fact that he has no core.”

How well can Mitt Romney use the health care law to attack the president

Republicans (100 votes)

Very effectively: 13%
Effectively: 48%
Ineffectively: 37%
Very ineffectively: 2%

Very effectively

“Mitt can credibly say he is one of only a few Republicans to try to fix health care insurance problem, and that at least his solution, while imperfect, was constitutional, whereas the solution offered by the former constitutional law professor was not.”

Effectively

“Look, voters care about health care. A lot. And Romney can at least argue he cares about it, too.”

“If he’s careful, what was done in Massachusetts makes the point—states should have the right to pursue these customized solutions; Obamacare takes that right away.”

“He can do it; whether he will is another matter. He has not yet got the message right.”

“Romney’s health care plan becomes a positive for Romney as he campaigns to win swing voters, because he can credibly explain he supports health care reform but not one that bankrupts the country as the president’s will.”

Ineffectively

“Romney’s been finding his chops on health care recently, but most voters won’t quickly grasp all the nuanced differences between Romney’s health reform and Obama’s.”

“There are differences between the president’s plan and Romney’s, but they are minor. There are real differences between the two men in other areas.”

“It will not hurt Romney, but he is disabled in pressing this issue.”

“Even by the most forgivable standards, Mitt doesn’t have a PowerPoint to explain his MassCare fiasco. Ted Kennedy’s having a laugh somewhere.”

Very ineffectively

“Him pretending the law in Massachusetts is so very different than Obamacare is just fiction and plays into him being inauthentic.”

__________________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appeared in the Saturday, March 31, 2012 edition of National Journal.

Lesley Clark: Poll: Americans' optimism on economy is growing slowly, but gas prices pinch

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/03/27/143294/poll-americans-optimism-on-economy.html

Lesley Clark | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy, but they're feeling strained by rising gasoline prices, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

A slim plurality believes the worst of the nation's economic woes are over, more than a third expect their personal family finances to get better over the next year — the highest rate since June 2010 — and the number of Americans who believe the U.S. is now in a recession is at its lowest point since Marist began tracking the question in May 2008.

"Most of the indicators show a slow but clearly growing sense of optimism," said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.

But, he added, the spike in gas prices threatens to derail some of the gains.

More than three out of four surveyed — 77 percent — said that the higher cost of gasoline had put at least a "moderate amount" of strain on their family budget. Thirty-seven percent said the costs had put a "great deal" of strain on family finances. And more than half — 53 percent — said that they had changed their driving habits as a result.

Miringoff noted that the numbers are reflected in the current political battle, with Republicans looking to blame President Barack Obama for the soaring cost of energy. Obama, whose political fortunes could be threatened by the prices at the pump, launched a two-day, four-state tour last week to tout his energy policy in the face of the GOP attacks.

"You can tell from the campaign back and forth what people are telling them," Miringoff said. "This is what the campaigns are seeing in their numbers."

But the poll suggests the discontent isn't as steep as it was in April 2008, when gas prices jumped to a then high of $3.50 a gallon. The Marist poll at the time found that 82 percent of respondents said that gas prices were putting at least a moderate strain on their finances.

"Clearly it's a financial hardship for a lot of people, but the picture isn't as bleak," Miringoff said. "They feel less strapped than four years ago. Not good, but not as bad."

That's reflected in the drop in pessimism over the U.S. economy. Forty-nine percent believe the worst is behind when it comes to the U.S. economy, while 45 percent believe the worst is yet to come. But that's the lowest number since January 2011, when just 39 percent believed the worst was yet to come.

"For the plurality, the glass is now half full; it's been half empty for a long time," Miringoff said.

At the same time, however, 66 percent of adults believe the U.S. is still in a recession. Analysts have said the recession officially ended in June 2009, but the poll shows Americans aren't fully convinced.

"It's all pointing in the right direction, but it's not very convincing at this point," Miringoff said.

METHODOLOGY:

This survey of 1,080 adults was conducted last Tuesday through Thursday. Adults who live in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based on a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were elected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cellphone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 3.0 percentage points. There were 846 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.5 percentage points.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/03/27/143294/poll-americans-optimism-on-economy.html#storylink=cpy

Kim Geiger: Obama gains in 'purple' states as GOP primary pushes on

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-gains-in-purple-states-as-gop-primary-goes-on-20120321,0,49866.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)

By Kim Geiger

March 21, 2012, 2:20 p.m.

Reporting from Washington —

President Obama’s standing with voters in 12 battleground states appears to be on the rise as views of the economy and the direction of the country have improved slightly, according to a new poll of voters in so-called purple states.

Thirty-six percent of those voters say the country is moving in the right direction, up from just 20% in November. More than two-thirds – 70% -- said in November that the country was moving in the wrong direction. That number has fallen to 57%.

Obama’s job approval rating also has improved, to 46% from 41% in September.

The Purple Poll surveyed voters in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

The poll, which has a sampling error of 2 percentage points, surveyed 1,424 voters in those states from Friday through Monday. The survey used automated telephone interviews, which are not considered as reliable as live interviews.

Much has been made of the increase in gas prices as a potential problem for Obama, but the poll of purple state voters found that half said they would not blame him if gas prices were to continue to go up. Still, a large chunk – 45% -- said they would blame him.

The poll also showed that Democrats continued to be perceived as the party that cares more about issues that are important to women. Fifty-one percent of independent voters believe this to be so, compared with 24% who believe the Republicans care more about women’s issues.

And as Mitt Romney continues his march toward the Republican presidential nomination, the poll suggests trouble for the presumed GOP front-runner.

More than half of purple state voters – 56% -- view him unfavorably, up from 39% in September. Just 29% view him favorably, down from 32% in September.

In November, Romney and Obama were tied in a hypothetical general election matchup. Now, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 44%.

More than half of respondents – 58% -- said they believed the GOP primary fight was weakening the eventual nominee.

Another poll, this one by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, suggests that if Newt Gingrichwere to drop out of the Republican presidential race, Rick Santorum would have a slight lead over Romney, 41% to 40%, among Republican primary voters.

Still, Romney appeared strong by another measure, with 61% of his supporters saying they would definitely support him, compared with 48% who said they’d definitely support Santorum. Santorum is more well-liked than Romney, but his favorability is on the decline, dropping 13 percentage points since last month.

The poll surveyed 734 Republican primary voters nationwide late last week, also through automated telephone interviews.

kim.geiger@latimes.com