Alex Roarty: Political Insiders Poll

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-politics-of-health-care-20120329

By Alex Roarty and Peter Bell

Updated:
March 29, 2012 | 4:00 p.m.

What will the political ramifications be if the Supreme Court strikes down all or part of the president’s health care law?

Democrats (101 votes)

Big win for Republicans: 34%
Small win for Republicans: 31%
Neither party gains: 16%
Small win for Democrats: 11%
Big win for Democrats: 9%

Big win for Republicans

“There’s nothing like ‘It’s unconstitutional’ for a talking point.”

“I think it is devastating to the administration and to perceptions of President Obama’s leadership. It would validate concerns that he is not governing from the center.”

“If the Court strikes the entire law, it will invalidate the signature achievement of the Obama administration. It may incite a backlash among supporters, but that will not be enough to make up for the loss of the law.”

Small win for Republicans

“Most of this issue has played out long ago, particularly in the 2010 cycle. It’s a GOP talking point, not a game change.”

“The devil is really in the details—for both the Democrats and the Republicans. How far does the Court go?”

“Republicans will have won bragging rights, and that certainly counts for something.”

“Don’t kid yourself—there’s no way you can put a smiley face on a loss.”

Neither party gains

“GOP win would translate to loss for millions of Americans deprived of adequate health care. It reopens the whole raucous debate.”

“It all depends on the spin. I hope the administration does better with a do-over.”

Small win for Democrats

“It will fire up the Democratic base, but it probably won’t move the needle with independents all that much one way or the other.”

Big win for Democrats

“It will galvanize the Democratic base to run against the Republican Court and Republican Congress.”

What will the political ramifications be if the Supreme Court strikes down all or part of the president’s health care law?

Republicans (101 votes)

Big win for Republicans: 55%
Small win for Republicans: 29%
Neither party gains: 9%
Small win for Democrats: 5%
Big win for Democrats: 3%

Big win for Republicans

“Win this one and everyone will see the emperor has no clothes. But the GOP needs a positive plan on health care—this issue isn’t going away.”

“A negative Supreme Court decision undercuts the Obama’s administration’s signature legislative achievement and reinforces the GOP narrative of a president in over his head.”

“Issue would remain polarizing, but independents would have credible reason to remain opposed to this administration’s addiction to government overreach.”

“Would enflame the Left against the high court but confirm for everyone else the recklessness and lack of judgment that went into the president’s manic push for the legislation.”

“His signature legislative achievement is found unconstitutional? I’d say that’s a setback.”

Small win for Republicans

“We get to say, ‘I told you so,’ but we lose a major issue for the fall.”

“If we are smart, it will be a defeat for Democrats and we won’t take credit or dance on the grave but instead will have an immediate alternative—if we are smart.”

“It will reinforce the public’s already negative view of Obama’s signature initiative, but don’t dismiss his willingness to try and seize the issue anew and reframe it.”

Neither party gains

“Helps both parties energize their base. Does not move indie voters who are preoccupied with jobs and job security.”

“Republicans will have proven their point, but the president can start campaigning on the issue all over again: There is still a demand for health care reform among the voters.”

Small win for Democrats

“It removes a millstone from their necks. Lots of Democrats secretly rooting for the Court to solve this problem for them.”

How well can Mitt Romney use the health care law to attack the president

Democrats (101 votes)

Very effectively: 1%
Effectively: 5%
Ineffectively: 48%
Very ineffectively: 47%

Ineffectively

“Obama just has to repeatedly show the picture of Teddy standing over Mitt at the Massachusetts signing ceremony.”

“There is an entire library of killer video of Romney on his support for the individual mandate that will be in ads in every swing state.”

“Hard for Romney to argue that state mandates are fine but federal mandates are not. More doublespeak from a flip-flopping phony.”

“He practically wrote the darn thing!”

“Since 90 percent of the Republican attack is based on the mandate, not a lot of daylight for Romney.”

“The message is too muddled. But I think the health care law will be a big liability for Obama even without Romney raising it.”

“Based on current polls, the GOP can score points on this issue, but Romney is a fundamentally flawed messenger. We’ll break out the Etch A Sketch every time ‘Obamacare’ crosses his lips.”

Very ineffectively

“In the most literal case, he’d be attacking his own record. But the Etch A Sketch candidate has done that and worse.”

“Not even Mitt can flip this flop.”

“The harder he tries, the worse he looks. Check off the box and move on.”

“It would be like Dick Cheney running against Obama and charging that he was reckless in getting us into war. Can’t be done—Santorum’s right about that. (And only that.)”

“Mitt’s now the godfather of the Health Care Reform Act. It will disappear as an issue because by talking too much about it, Mitt Romney only reinforces the fact that he has no core.”

How well can Mitt Romney use the health care law to attack the president

Republicans (100 votes)

Very effectively: 13%
Effectively: 48%
Ineffectively: 37%
Very ineffectively: 2%

Very effectively

“Mitt can credibly say he is one of only a few Republicans to try to fix health care insurance problem, and that at least his solution, while imperfect, was constitutional, whereas the solution offered by the former constitutional law professor was not.”

Effectively

“Look, voters care about health care. A lot. And Romney can at least argue he cares about it, too.”

“If he’s careful, what was done in Massachusetts makes the point—states should have the right to pursue these customized solutions; Obamacare takes that right away.”

“He can do it; whether he will is another matter. He has not yet got the message right.”

“Romney’s health care plan becomes a positive for Romney as he campaigns to win swing voters, because he can credibly explain he supports health care reform but not one that bankrupts the country as the president’s will.”

Ineffectively

“Romney’s been finding his chops on health care recently, but most voters won’t quickly grasp all the nuanced differences between Romney’s health reform and Obama’s.”

“There are differences between the president’s plan and Romney’s, but they are minor. There are real differences between the two men in other areas.”

“It will not hurt Romney, but he is disabled in pressing this issue.”

“Even by the most forgivable standards, Mitt doesn’t have a PowerPoint to explain his MassCare fiasco. Ted Kennedy’s having a laugh somewhere.”

Very ineffectively

“Him pretending the law in Massachusetts is so very different than Obamacare is just fiction and plays into him being inauthentic.”

__________________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appeared in the Saturday, March 31, 2012 edition of National Journal.

Lesley Clark: Poll: Americans' optimism on economy is growing slowly, but gas prices pinch

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/03/27/143294/poll-americans-optimism-on-economy.html

Lesley Clark | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy, but they're feeling strained by rising gasoline prices, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

A slim plurality believes the worst of the nation's economic woes are over, more than a third expect their personal family finances to get better over the next year — the highest rate since June 2010 — and the number of Americans who believe the U.S. is now in a recession is at its lowest point since Marist began tracking the question in May 2008.

"Most of the indicators show a slow but clearly growing sense of optimism," said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.

But, he added, the spike in gas prices threatens to derail some of the gains.

More than three out of four surveyed — 77 percent — said that the higher cost of gasoline had put at least a "moderate amount" of strain on their family budget. Thirty-seven percent said the costs had put a "great deal" of strain on family finances. And more than half — 53 percent — said that they had changed their driving habits as a result.

Miringoff noted that the numbers are reflected in the current political battle, with Republicans looking to blame President Barack Obama for the soaring cost of energy. Obama, whose political fortunes could be threatened by the prices at the pump, launched a two-day, four-state tour last week to tout his energy policy in the face of the GOP attacks.

"You can tell from the campaign back and forth what people are telling them," Miringoff said. "This is what the campaigns are seeing in their numbers."

But the poll suggests the discontent isn't as steep as it was in April 2008, when gas prices jumped to a then high of $3.50 a gallon. The Marist poll at the time found that 82 percent of respondents said that gas prices were putting at least a moderate strain on their finances.

"Clearly it's a financial hardship for a lot of people, but the picture isn't as bleak," Miringoff said. "They feel less strapped than four years ago. Not good, but not as bad."

That's reflected in the drop in pessimism over the U.S. economy. Forty-nine percent believe the worst is behind when it comes to the U.S. economy, while 45 percent believe the worst is yet to come. But that's the lowest number since January 2011, when just 39 percent believed the worst was yet to come.

"For the plurality, the glass is now half full; it's been half empty for a long time," Miringoff said.

At the same time, however, 66 percent of adults believe the U.S. is still in a recession. Analysts have said the recession officially ended in June 2009, but the poll shows Americans aren't fully convinced.

"It's all pointing in the right direction, but it's not very convincing at this point," Miringoff said.

METHODOLOGY:

This survey of 1,080 adults was conducted last Tuesday through Thursday. Adults who live in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based on a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were elected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cellphone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 3.0 percentage points. There were 846 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.5 percentage points.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/03/27/143294/poll-americans-optimism-on-economy.html#storylink=cpy

Kim Geiger: Obama gains in 'purple' states as GOP primary pushes on

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-gains-in-purple-states-as-gop-primary-goes-on-20120321,0,49866.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)

By Kim Geiger

March 21, 2012, 2:20 p.m.

Reporting from Washington —

President Obama’s standing with voters in 12 battleground states appears to be on the rise as views of the economy and the direction of the country have improved slightly, according to a new poll of voters in so-called purple states.

Thirty-six percent of those voters say the country is moving in the right direction, up from just 20% in November. More than two-thirds – 70% -- said in November that the country was moving in the wrong direction. That number has fallen to 57%.

Obama’s job approval rating also has improved, to 46% from 41% in September.

The Purple Poll surveyed voters in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

The poll, which has a sampling error of 2 percentage points, surveyed 1,424 voters in those states from Friday through Monday. The survey used automated telephone interviews, which are not considered as reliable as live interviews.

Much has been made of the increase in gas prices as a potential problem for Obama, but the poll of purple state voters found that half said they would not blame him if gas prices were to continue to go up. Still, a large chunk – 45% -- said they would blame him.

The poll also showed that Democrats continued to be perceived as the party that cares more about issues that are important to women. Fifty-one percent of independent voters believe this to be so, compared with 24% who believe the Republicans care more about women’s issues.

And as Mitt Romney continues his march toward the Republican presidential nomination, the poll suggests trouble for the presumed GOP front-runner.

More than half of purple state voters – 56% -- view him unfavorably, up from 39% in September. Just 29% view him favorably, down from 32% in September.

In November, Romney and Obama were tied in a hypothetical general election matchup. Now, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 44%.

More than half of respondents – 58% -- said they believed the GOP primary fight was weakening the eventual nominee.

Another poll, this one by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, suggests that if Newt Gingrichwere to drop out of the Republican presidential race, Rick Santorum would have a slight lead over Romney, 41% to 40%, among Republican primary voters.

Still, Romney appeared strong by another measure, with 61% of his supporters saying they would definitely support him, compared with 48% who said they’d definitely support Santorum. Santorum is more well-liked than Romney, but his favorability is on the decline, dropping 13 percentage points since last month.

The poll surveyed 734 Republican primary voters nationwide late last week, also through automated telephone interviews.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Sandhya Somashekhar: In GOP race, voters divided over religion’s place in politics

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-gop-race-voters-divided-over-religions-place-in-politics/2012/03/16/gIQADwjZGS_story.html

By Sandhya Somashekhar and Peyton M. Craighill, Published: March 16

Faith has emerged as a significant fault line in the Republican race for president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, which shows that Rick Santorum’s supporters seek a much stronger role for religion in American politics than do voters who support rival Mitt Romney.

More than half of Santorum’s backers say political leaders should rely on their religious beliefs while making policy decisions, but two out of three Romney supporters feel the opposite — that leaders should steer clear of their faith as they set policies for the country.

While 65 percent of Santorum’s supporters say it is important for a presidential candidate to share his or her religious beliefs, only about 40 percent of Romney’s supporters feel the same. And about six in 10 Santorum backers generally feel that the country has gone too far in separating church and state; 37 percent of Romney’s backers feel the same.

The results are consistent what has been evident in exit polls: Santorum, with his overtly Christian pitch, has emerged as the candidate of choice for religiously oriented Republican voters, particularly evangelical Christians, who have turned out in large numbers to support the Catholic former senator from Pennsylvania.

Romney, a Mormon who pursued moderate social policies as governor of Massachusetts, has struggled to connect with evangelical Christians, which has been a particular disadvantage for him in the South. About half of the GOP electorate thus far has identified as evangelical Christian, ranging from a low of 16 percent in Massachusetts to a high of 83 percent in Mississippi.

But Romney’s base’s opinions on religion in the public sphere, as well as their views on social issues, more closely resemble those of Americans at large. That finding reinforces the impression that Romney would have an advantage over Santorum in a general election.

Most Americans, some 63 percent, believe political leaders should not rely on their religious beliefs in making policy decisions, according to the new poll. About 58 percent say it does not matter if a candidate for president shares his or her religious views. Roughly one-third feel that the country has gone too far in keeping church and state separate; another third feel that the nation has struck a good balance.

While overwhelming majorities of Santorum’s supporters believe abortion and same-sex marriage should be illegal, Romney’s backers are more divided on those hot-button issues, mirroring the country at large.

Nationally, 54 percent of U.S. adults believe abortion should be legal and slightly more than half support legalizing same-sex marriage, according to the new poll. The views on abortion are largely unchanged from polls dating at least back to the 1990s. Opinions on the legalization of same-sex marriage have shifted sharply in the past decade, with a slight majority in favor of it since last year.

Though Santorum has gained traction among evangelical Christians, he has not had the same advantage with his fellow Catholics, whose views on social issues more closely match the national average.

While nearly 60 percent of white evangelical Protestants think the country has gone too far in separating church and state, about half as many white Catholics share that view, according to the poll.

About six in 10 white Catholics believe abortion should be legal, and a similar proportion supports same-sex marriage, despite their church’s teachings to the contrary.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis: Republicans Losing on Birth Control as 77% in Poll Spurn Debate

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-14/republicans-losing-on-birth-control-as-77-in-poll-spurn-debate.html

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis - Mar 14, 2012 4:30 AM ET

Americans overwhelmingly regard the debate over President Barack Obama’s policy on employer-provided contraceptive coverage as a matter of women’s health, not religious freedom, rejecting Republicans’ rationale for opposing the rule. More than three-quarters say the topic shouldn’t even be a part of the U.S. political debate.

More than six in 10 respondents to a Bloomberg National Poll -- including almost 70 percent of women -- say the issue involves health care and access to birth control, according to the survey taken March 8-11.

That conflicts with Republican presidential candidates Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney, who say Obama is violating religious freedom by requiring employers -- including those with religious objections to birth control -- to provide a way for women to obtain contraceptive coverage as part of their insurance plans.

The results suggest the Republican candidates’ focus on contraception is out of sync with the U.S. public. Seventy-seven percent of poll respondents say birth control shouldn’t be a topic of the political debate, while 20 percent say it should.

“These candidates are talking to a relatively small subset even among Republicans,” said J. Ann Selzer, of Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., who conducted the telephone poll of 1,002 respondents. “They may have the feeling, and their polls may be showing them, that this is a way in and this is a wedge issue within the party, but this does not dovetail with the views of the majority in the U.S.”

Fire Rush Limbaugh

More than half of those interviewed also say radio host Rush Limbaugh, who called a female law student testifying publicly in favor of birth-control coverage a “slut” and “prostitute,” should be fired based solely on those comments.

Republicans are more likely than respondents generally to see the controversy over contraception as an issue of religious liberty, with 54 percent viewing it that way, compared with 42 percent who say it was a matter of health-care access.

While Democrats have charged that the Republican position amounts to a “war on women,” the poll indicates that they aren’t benefiting from it in respondents’ perceptions of the two parties. The survey also suggests that the advantage Democrats have historically enjoyed among women may have narrowed.

Forty-nine percent of women say they would choose Obama over Romney, the front-runner in delegates in the Republican primary, compared with 45 percent who say they’d pick the former Massachusetts governor. In 2008, Obama won 56 percent of the women’s vote to 43 percent for the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, according to national exit polls.

Obama Against Santorum

Obama’s advantage among women is more pronounced over Santorum, a Roman Catholic who says he is personally opposed to contraception and has made such social issues a hallmark of his campaign. Women also back Obama over the former Pennsylvania senator 51 percent to 42 percent, while voters overall choose the president by a narrower six-point margin.

At the same time, women’s impressions of the Democratic Party are only slightly better than of the Republicans. Forty- nine percent view Democrats favorably and 42 percent see them unfavorably, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points; 44 percent regard Republicans favorably compared with 48 percent who see them unfavorably.

“I don’t understand why it’s even an issue in politics --a woman’s decision of what she’s going to do for her health and her family,” said Alycia Vetter, a 44-year-old Republican and Romney supporter in Denver. “And I’m pro-life.”

Work to Do

Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster who has studied women’s opinions, says the results suggest that while Republicans may have erred by emphasizing the contraception issue, Democrats have work to do before the November elections to gain the support of more women.

“It’s up to candidates and the parties and women’s organizations to really make a case about why it’s an important distinction between the parties,” said Omero of the Washington- based firm Momentum Analysis. “We’re going to absolutely need women voters and need to have a strong gender gap, and Republicans have handed us a really strong example.”

The poll also indicated that most Americans aren’t comfortable mixing religion and policy. Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed -- including almost half of Republicans -- say a president’s religious beliefs should never influence his policy decisions compared with a quarter who say they should sometimes, and 14 percent who say they should most or all of the time.

Independents, Democrats

Fifty-five percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Romney say religious beliefs should never influence decisions, compared with just 29 percent of Santorum supporters.

Men are more likely to say contraception coverage is a matter of religious liberty, with 38 percent saying so compared with 28 percent of women who see it that way. Majorities of both genders -- 57 percent of men and 68 percent of women -- say the issue is one of women’s health and access to birth control.

While a majority of Republicans see the topic as a question of religious freedom, only 36 percent of independents and 12 percent of Democrats agree. By contrast, 60 percent of independents and 81 percent of Democrats call it a matter of women’s health.

Let’s Move On

“I don’t think it should have made it into the political realm, but I thought in the United States that you have freedom of religion, and the president made it an issue when he started telling people that they had to violate their beliefs,” said Brian Chapman Thomson, 50, a Santorum supporter from Dallas.

The Obama administration originally said that as part of the new health-care law, religiously affiliated institutions would have to pay for birth-control coverage for employees. After protests by Catholic bishops, the administration announced a compromise, saying that while the institutions wouldn’t have to pay for contraceptives, their insurance companies would.

Thomson says it’s appropriate for Republicans to focus on social issues in the primary, yet he is ready to move on from the contraception issue. Santorum “had a good ride, but he needs to move on to other topics,” such as the economy, Thomson says. “Let’s hear what else you have to say.”

Limbaugh Comments

As for Limbaugh’s derogatory comments about Georgetown University law student Sandra Fluke, men are split over whether the radio host should be let go from his job -- 49 percent say so, while 47 percent disagree. Fifty-six percent of women support the move compared with 39 percent who don’t. Almost one in three Republicans, 30 percent, say Limbaugh should be fired for the remarks.

Limbaugh mocked Democrats on the air yesterday for having thought his comments about Fluke were going to work to their advantage, saying they failed to gain significant headway among women voters.

“It wasn’t a big winner for them,” he said. “It didn’t work out the way they all envisioned.” Instead, he said, Obama is losing ground with women.

Kim Geiger: Polls: Santorum vs. Gingrich helps Romney in the South

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-polls-santorum-vs-gingrich-helps-romney-in-the-south-20120312,0,2302228.story

By Kim Geiger

March 12, 2012, 10:41 a.m.

Reporting from Washington —

With primaries in Alabama and Mississippi less than a day away, new polls show a tight Republican presidential contest as Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum each have a chance to win the Deep South states.

In Mississippi, Gingrich leads with 33% to Romney’s 31% and Santorum’s 27%, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in Raleigh, N.C. The firm’s Alabama survey found the race there to be even closer: Romney has 31%, Gingrich has 30% and Santorum has 29%.

The Southern primaries had been viewed as a battle between Gingrich and Santorum for the party’s more conservative wing, but conservatives' inability to choose between the two has created an opening for Romney.

In Mississippi and Alabama, nearly half of voters describe themselves as "very conservative." Romney wins just one-quarter of those voters, while Gingrich and Santorum appear to be splitting the rest. Gingrich leads Santorum 35% to 32% in Mississippi and Santorum leads Gingrich 37% to 31% in Alabama.

The result is a pair of tight races in which any of the three candidates could score a win.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is expected to finish last in both states, where the polls show his support in the single digits.

The stakes are highest for Gingrich, who has staked his campaign on a strategy that requires winning all the Southern states. (Gingrich has so far won in just two states: South Carolina and his home state of Georgia.)

As Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond put it last week: "From Spartanburg all the way to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich.”

kim.geiger@latimes.com