Rebecca Stewart: Poll: Cain takes top position, Perry falls to fifth

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/25/poll-cain-takes-top-position-perry-falls-to-fifth/

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CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) - Businessman and conservative radio talk show host Herman Cain came out on top in a CBS/New York Times poll measuring support among likely Republican primary voters that was released Tuesday.

In the first poll since CNN's Western Republican debate, Cain is ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by four percentage points, within the sampling error for the survey.

One quarter of GOP primary voters support Cain, who has surged in national polls recently due in part, perhaps, to his easy-to-understand "9-9-9" economic plan and consistent debate performances. Romney received 21% support.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich netted 10% followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at eight percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has fallen to fifth place after early stumbles in candidate debates. He's also been hemmed in with stinging critiques from rivals on his positions regarding immigration and his support for a mandatory HPV vaccine.

Perry received 6% support in the poll, half the amount he received in early October.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has also fallen out of favor it seems, after winning the critical Iowa straw poll in August. With two percent support, the congresswoman has struggled to stay relevant as public bickering between former and current staffers exploded in New Hampshire.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman tied at one percent.

But with 14% of likely Republican primary-goers undecided and roughly four out of five saying it is too early to say for sure who they back for the nomination, a chunk of potential supporters is still in play.

The poll was conducted among 1,650 adults by telephone including 455 voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The overall sampling error for the survey is plus or minus two percentage points. The sampling error for the subgroup of likely Republican primary voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Kim Geiger: Gallup: Obama's approval rating hits another record low

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-gallup-average-20111021,0,7921877.story

By Kim Geiger

October 21, 2011, 1:48 p.m.

President Obama’s average approval rating sank to a new low of 41% in the 11^th financial quarter of his term, according to a new analysis of Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

That number is down six percentage points from Obama’s 10^th quarter average, and is the lowest 11^th quarter average posted by a sitting president since Jimmy Carter, who lost his reelection bid in 1980. (Carter’s approval average that quarter was 31%.)

Obama’s average approval rating over his entire term is now 50%.

Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones notes that while the 11th quarter was so far Obama's worst, the 12^th- and 13^th- quarter averages will be better indicators of his reelection prospects. Those averages historically “give a strong indication of whether he will win a second term,” Jones wrote in a summary of Gallup’s findings.

Of 262 presidential quarters in which Gallup has calculated average presidential job approval ratings, the 11^th quarter of Obama’s term ranks 220^th.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: Number who prefer death penalty on decline

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/12/cnn-poll-number-who-prefer-death-penalty-on-decline/?iref=storysearch

Posted by

CNN Political Unit

(CNN) – When offered a choice between sentencing a murderer to capital punishment or life in prison with no chance of parole, half of all Americans say they prefer a life sentence over the death penalty - the first time that has happened in CNN polling.

Fifty percent would opt for a life sentence; 48% said they would choose the death penalty, revealing a nation divided when it comes to capital punishment.

Full results (pdf)

The remaining two percent had no opinion in the survey released Wednesday.

"That's not to say that Americans want to abolish the death penalty entirely," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But there is a difference between thinking that the government should have the death penalty as an option and actually wanting to see it applied."

Seven years ago, 56% of the nation said they preferred the death penalty, a number that decreased to 53% in 2009 and to 48% now. At the same time the number of Americans who believe that at least one person in the past five years has been executed for a crime that he or she did not commit increased to 72%.

The issue of the death penalty has even found its way onto the 2012 campaign trail, with some media attention given to the controversy surrounding the execution of death row inmate Todd Willingham. Willingham, who maintained his innocence, received the death penalty while GOP contender Rick Perry served as governor of Texas.

In 2005, when a solid majority preferred the death penalty, 59% believed that an innocent person had been executed within the previous five years. The CNN/ORC International survey reveals that figure has risen thirteen points.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International from September 23-25 among 1,010 adults who were questioned by telephone. It has a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: GOP shakeup in South Carolina

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/11/poll-gop-shakeup-in-south-carolina/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) – Businessman Herman Cain has edged out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the first primary state of the South, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

The conservative radio talk show host received 26% support in the Palmetto State poll, only one percentage point ahead of Romney and within the margin of error for the American Research Group survey, indicating the two are statistically tied.

South Carolina is slated to go fourth in the nation's primary and caucus calendar, preceded by Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

The longest-serving Texas Gov. Rick Perry placed third with 15% support, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8%, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 7%, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5%.

With 12% of likely primary voters undecided in the poll, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum received 1% support and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer did not net enough backing to constitute a percentage.

The results reflect a southern shakeup in standings among the GOP field. Just three months ago Romney placed first followed by former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who has since announced she's out of the race for the 2012 nomination, Bachmann, who's seen her popularity fall following a big win in the Ames straw poll, and Herman Cain in fourth.

When the survey is narrowed to Republican respondents who consider themselves likely primary voters, Cain and Romney are tied at 27% each.

Among tea party supporters, Cain, a favorite in the tea party movement, takes the lead with 35% support, followed by Perry, and with Romney in third. But among those who are not tea party supporters or are undecided about the movement, the top four shifts with Romney in the lead at 33% followed by Cain, Perry, and Paul.

The American Research Group survey was conducted among 600 likely GOP primary voters including Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Respondents were questioned by telephone from October 5-10. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Rebecca Stewart: Polls: Cain stays strong

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/10/poll-cain-stays-strong/

Posted by

CNN Producer Gabriella Schwarz

(CNN) - Continuing his national surge, Herman Cain came in second place among Republican presidential candidates in a new national poll released Monday.

The Washington Post/Bloomberg survey of Republican-leaning voters showed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on top with Cain, the former Godfather's Pizza CEO, in the No. 2 spot, slightly ahead of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Romney received 25% support, followed by Cain with 16%, Perry with 13%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 6% and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with 4%. The remaining candidates received lower figures.

The respondents who lean Republican said Romney, at 22%, would do the most to improve the economy. Cain, who has made the economy the central theme of his campaign, received 20% and Perry received 12%. Meanwhile, the questioners said Bachmann would do the most to hurt the economy. She garnered 14% followed by Paul at 11% and Perry at 9%.

The new poll was released one day before Tuesday's GOP debate in New Hampshire and shortly before Gallup released survey results that showed Cain trailing Romney by just two percentage points. The difference is within the poll's margin of error.

In the Gallup poll Romney received 20% support, followed by Cain at 18%. Perry saw 15% support in the survey with Paul behind him at 8%, Gingrich at 7%, Bachmann at 5%, Santorum at 3% and Huntsman at 2%.

But with 20% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents still undecided, there's more work for GOP candidates when it comes to firming up support.

A Pew Research Center survey released Thursday showed Romney still on top with 22%, but Perry was next in line with 17%, followed by Cain with 13%, Paul with 12%, Gingrich with 8% and Bachmann with 6%.

The Washington Post/Bloomberg News poll questioned 1,000 adults between Oct. 6 and Oct. 9 with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The Gallup poll was conducted from among 1,064 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents by telephone from October 3-7. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Pew poll questioned 876 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters between Sept. 22 and Oct. 4 with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

– CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Rebecca Stewart: Obama approval plummets in NH

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/30/obama-approval-plummets-in-nh/?iref=storysearch

Posted by

CNN Political Producer Rachel Streitfeld

Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) - Sixty-five percent of New Hampshire residents disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy, according to a new poll.

The American Research Group's September 2011 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll also found the president's approval rating in the first-in-the-nation primary state is pegged at 31%.

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said the notable shift in Obama's support is among undeclared, or independent voters. Sixty-seven percent of undeclared voters in the state say they disapprove of how the president has handled the economy.

Even though New Hampshire's unemployment rate is much lower than the national figure, Scala said voters here are affected by rampant displeasure in the economy.

Obama lost New Hampshire's primary to Hillary Clinton in 2008 but triumphed over John McCain here with 54% in the general election. The state carries four electoral votes.

The American Research group poll was conducted by telephone from September 25-29, surveying 547 adults in New Hampshire. The sampling error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

–CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: One in five say Social Security is unconstitutional

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/29/cnn-poll-one-in-five-say-social-security-is-unconstitutional/?iref=storysearch

Posted by

CNN Political Unit

(CNN) - Social Security reform has taken center stage in the 2012 presidential debate and one in five say the system is unconstitutional, but a new CNN/ORC International poll shows a majority of Americans have good feelings about the program.

Eight in 10 Americans think Social Security has been good for the country, with 70 percent of young adults agreeing and almost nine in 10 senior citizens saying the same.

Full results (pdf)

Though large majorities of both parties believe the 75-year-old program instituted by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt has been good, about one-third of all Republicans think it is unconstitutional.

The campaign trail has been flooded with proposals on how to reform Social Security, and while most candidates agree the system is secure for senior citizens, the big question is what will happen to young Americans who currently pay into the fund when they're ready to retire.

Most under 35 say Social Security has had no effect on their lives, but the number that say the system has been bad for them is roughly the same as the number that think it has benefitted them personally-18 to 20 percent.

The adults who agree that Social Security has been good for them personally rises with age - 85 percent of seniors say the system has benefitted them.

But Americans agree Social Security is facing a crisis or major problem. Almost one in five Americans say it is in a state of crisis and another half say it faces major problems.

Roughly half the nation supports one proposed solution, creating a private savings account that citizens could pay into - 52 percent favor allowing workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in stocks or bonds and 46 percent oppose that change.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International by telephone from September 23-25, among 1,010 adult Americans. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.