Kim Geiger: Obama gains in 'purple' states as GOP primary pushes on

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-gains-in-purple-states-as-gop-primary-goes-on-20120321,0,49866.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)

By Kim Geiger

March 21, 2012, 2:20 p.m.

Reporting from Washington —

President Obama’s standing with voters in 12 battleground states appears to be on the rise as views of the economy and the direction of the country have improved slightly, according to a new poll of voters in so-called purple states.

Thirty-six percent of those voters say the country is moving in the right direction, up from just 20% in November. More than two-thirds – 70% -- said in November that the country was moving in the wrong direction. That number has fallen to 57%.

Obama’s job approval rating also has improved, to 46% from 41% in September.

The Purple Poll surveyed voters in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.

The poll, which has a sampling error of 2 percentage points, surveyed 1,424 voters in those states from Friday through Monday. The survey used automated telephone interviews, which are not considered as reliable as live interviews.

Much has been made of the increase in gas prices as a potential problem for Obama, but the poll of purple state voters found that half said they would not blame him if gas prices were to continue to go up. Still, a large chunk – 45% -- said they would blame him.

The poll also showed that Democrats continued to be perceived as the party that cares more about issues that are important to women. Fifty-one percent of independent voters believe this to be so, compared with 24% who believe the Republicans care more about women’s issues.

And as Mitt Romney continues his march toward the Republican presidential nomination, the poll suggests trouble for the presumed GOP front-runner.

More than half of purple state voters – 56% -- view him unfavorably, up from 39% in September. Just 29% view him favorably, down from 32% in September.

In November, Romney and Obama were tied in a hypothetical general election matchup. Now, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 44%.

More than half of respondents – 58% -- said they believed the GOP primary fight was weakening the eventual nominee.

Another poll, this one by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, suggests that if Newt Gingrichwere to drop out of the Republican presidential race, Rick Santorum would have a slight lead over Romney, 41% to 40%, among Republican primary voters.

Still, Romney appeared strong by another measure, with 61% of his supporters saying they would definitely support him, compared with 48% who said they’d definitely support Santorum. Santorum is more well-liked than Romney, but his favorability is on the decline, dropping 13 percentage points since last month.

The poll surveyed 734 Republican primary voters nationwide late last week, also through automated telephone interviews.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Sandhya Somashekhar: In GOP race, voters divided over religion’s place in politics

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-gop-race-voters-divided-over-religions-place-in-politics/2012/03/16/gIQADwjZGS_story.html

By Sandhya Somashekhar and Peyton M. Craighill, Published: March 16

Faith has emerged as a significant fault line in the Republican race for president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, which shows that Rick Santorum’s supporters seek a much stronger role for religion in American politics than do voters who support rival Mitt Romney.

More than half of Santorum’s backers say political leaders should rely on their religious beliefs while making policy decisions, but two out of three Romney supporters feel the opposite — that leaders should steer clear of their faith as they set policies for the country.

While 65 percent of Santorum’s supporters say it is important for a presidential candidate to share his or her religious beliefs, only about 40 percent of Romney’s supporters feel the same. And about six in 10 Santorum backers generally feel that the country has gone too far in separating church and state; 37 percent of Romney’s backers feel the same.

The results are consistent what has been evident in exit polls: Santorum, with his overtly Christian pitch, has emerged as the candidate of choice for religiously oriented Republican voters, particularly evangelical Christians, who have turned out in large numbers to support the Catholic former senator from Pennsylvania.

Romney, a Mormon who pursued moderate social policies as governor of Massachusetts, has struggled to connect with evangelical Christians, which has been a particular disadvantage for him in the South. About half of the GOP electorate thus far has identified as evangelical Christian, ranging from a low of 16 percent in Massachusetts to a high of 83 percent in Mississippi.

But Romney’s base’s opinions on religion in the public sphere, as well as their views on social issues, more closely resemble those of Americans at large. That finding reinforces the impression that Romney would have an advantage over Santorum in a general election.

Most Americans, some 63 percent, believe political leaders should not rely on their religious beliefs in making policy decisions, according to the new poll. About 58 percent say it does not matter if a candidate for president shares his or her religious views. Roughly one-third feel that the country has gone too far in keeping church and state separate; another third feel that the nation has struck a good balance.

While overwhelming majorities of Santorum’s supporters believe abortion and same-sex marriage should be illegal, Romney’s backers are more divided on those hot-button issues, mirroring the country at large.

Nationally, 54 percent of U.S. adults believe abortion should be legal and slightly more than half support legalizing same-sex marriage, according to the new poll. The views on abortion are largely unchanged from polls dating at least back to the 1990s. Opinions on the legalization of same-sex marriage have shifted sharply in the past decade, with a slight majority in favor of it since last year.

Though Santorum has gained traction among evangelical Christians, he has not had the same advantage with his fellow Catholics, whose views on social issues more closely match the national average.

While nearly 60 percent of white evangelical Protestants think the country has gone too far in separating church and state, about half as many white Catholics share that view, according to the poll.

About six in 10 white Catholics believe abortion should be legal, and a similar proportion supports same-sex marriage, despite their church’s teachings to the contrary.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis: Republicans Losing on Birth Control as 77% in Poll Spurn Debate

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-14/republicans-losing-on-birth-control-as-77-in-poll-spurn-debate.html

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis - Mar 14, 2012 4:30 AM ET

Americans overwhelmingly regard the debate over President Barack Obama’s policy on employer-provided contraceptive coverage as a matter of women’s health, not religious freedom, rejecting Republicans’ rationale for opposing the rule. More than three-quarters say the topic shouldn’t even be a part of the U.S. political debate.

More than six in 10 respondents to a Bloomberg National Poll -- including almost 70 percent of women -- say the issue involves health care and access to birth control, according to the survey taken March 8-11.

That conflicts with Republican presidential candidates Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney, who say Obama is violating religious freedom by requiring employers -- including those with religious objections to birth control -- to provide a way for women to obtain contraceptive coverage as part of their insurance plans.

The results suggest the Republican candidates’ focus on contraception is out of sync with the U.S. public. Seventy-seven percent of poll respondents say birth control shouldn’t be a topic of the political debate, while 20 percent say it should.

“These candidates are talking to a relatively small subset even among Republicans,” said J. Ann Selzer, of Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., who conducted the telephone poll of 1,002 respondents. “They may have the feeling, and their polls may be showing them, that this is a way in and this is a wedge issue within the party, but this does not dovetail with the views of the majority in the U.S.”

Fire Rush Limbaugh

More than half of those interviewed also say radio host Rush Limbaugh, who called a female law student testifying publicly in favor of birth-control coverage a “slut” and “prostitute,” should be fired based solely on those comments.

Republicans are more likely than respondents generally to see the controversy over contraception as an issue of religious liberty, with 54 percent viewing it that way, compared with 42 percent who say it was a matter of health-care access.

While Democrats have charged that the Republican position amounts to a “war on women,” the poll indicates that they aren’t benefiting from it in respondents’ perceptions of the two parties. The survey also suggests that the advantage Democrats have historically enjoyed among women may have narrowed.

Forty-nine percent of women say they would choose Obama over Romney, the front-runner in delegates in the Republican primary, compared with 45 percent who say they’d pick the former Massachusetts governor. In 2008, Obama won 56 percent of the women’s vote to 43 percent for the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, according to national exit polls.

Obama Against Santorum

Obama’s advantage among women is more pronounced over Santorum, a Roman Catholic who says he is personally opposed to contraception and has made such social issues a hallmark of his campaign. Women also back Obama over the former Pennsylvania senator 51 percent to 42 percent, while voters overall choose the president by a narrower six-point margin.

At the same time, women’s impressions of the Democratic Party are only slightly better than of the Republicans. Forty- nine percent view Democrats favorably and 42 percent see them unfavorably, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points; 44 percent regard Republicans favorably compared with 48 percent who see them unfavorably.

“I don’t understand why it’s even an issue in politics --a woman’s decision of what she’s going to do for her health and her family,” said Alycia Vetter, a 44-year-old Republican and Romney supporter in Denver. “And I’m pro-life.”

Work to Do

Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster who has studied women’s opinions, says the results suggest that while Republicans may have erred by emphasizing the contraception issue, Democrats have work to do before the November elections to gain the support of more women.

“It’s up to candidates and the parties and women’s organizations to really make a case about why it’s an important distinction between the parties,” said Omero of the Washington- based firm Momentum Analysis. “We’re going to absolutely need women voters and need to have a strong gender gap, and Republicans have handed us a really strong example.”

The poll also indicated that most Americans aren’t comfortable mixing religion and policy. Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed -- including almost half of Republicans -- say a president’s religious beliefs should never influence his policy decisions compared with a quarter who say they should sometimes, and 14 percent who say they should most or all of the time.

Independents, Democrats

Fifty-five percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Romney say religious beliefs should never influence decisions, compared with just 29 percent of Santorum supporters.

Men are more likely to say contraception coverage is a matter of religious liberty, with 38 percent saying so compared with 28 percent of women who see it that way. Majorities of both genders -- 57 percent of men and 68 percent of women -- say the issue is one of women’s health and access to birth control.

While a majority of Republicans see the topic as a question of religious freedom, only 36 percent of independents and 12 percent of Democrats agree. By contrast, 60 percent of independents and 81 percent of Democrats call it a matter of women’s health.

Let’s Move On

“I don’t think it should have made it into the political realm, but I thought in the United States that you have freedom of religion, and the president made it an issue when he started telling people that they had to violate their beliefs,” said Brian Chapman Thomson, 50, a Santorum supporter from Dallas.

The Obama administration originally said that as part of the new health-care law, religiously affiliated institutions would have to pay for birth-control coverage for employees. After protests by Catholic bishops, the administration announced a compromise, saying that while the institutions wouldn’t have to pay for contraceptives, their insurance companies would.

Thomson says it’s appropriate for Republicans to focus on social issues in the primary, yet he is ready to move on from the contraception issue. Santorum “had a good ride, but he needs to move on to other topics,” such as the economy, Thomson says. “Let’s hear what else you have to say.”

Limbaugh Comments

As for Limbaugh’s derogatory comments about Georgetown University law student Sandra Fluke, men are split over whether the radio host should be let go from his job -- 49 percent say so, while 47 percent disagree. Fifty-six percent of women support the move compared with 39 percent who don’t. Almost one in three Republicans, 30 percent, say Limbaugh should be fired for the remarks.

Limbaugh mocked Democrats on the air yesterday for having thought his comments about Fluke were going to work to their advantage, saying they failed to gain significant headway among women voters.

“It wasn’t a big winner for them,” he said. “It didn’t work out the way they all envisioned.” Instead, he said, Obama is losing ground with women.

Kim Geiger: Polls: Santorum vs. Gingrich helps Romney in the South

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-polls-santorum-vs-gingrich-helps-romney-in-the-south-20120312,0,2302228.story

By Kim Geiger

March 12, 2012, 10:41 a.m.

Reporting from Washington —

With primaries in Alabama and Mississippi less than a day away, new polls show a tight Republican presidential contest as Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum each have a chance to win the Deep South states.

In Mississippi, Gingrich leads with 33% to Romney’s 31% and Santorum’s 27%, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in Raleigh, N.C. The firm’s Alabama survey found the race there to be even closer: Romney has 31%, Gingrich has 30% and Santorum has 29%.

The Southern primaries had been viewed as a battle between Gingrich and Santorum for the party’s more conservative wing, but conservatives' inability to choose between the two has created an opening for Romney.

In Mississippi and Alabama, nearly half of voters describe themselves as "very conservative." Romney wins just one-quarter of those voters, while Gingrich and Santorum appear to be splitting the rest. Gingrich leads Santorum 35% to 32% in Mississippi and Santorum leads Gingrich 37% to 31% in Alabama.

The result is a pair of tight races in which any of the three candidates could score a win.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is expected to finish last in both states, where the polls show his support in the single digits.

The stakes are highest for Gingrich, who has staked his campaign on a strategy that requires winning all the Southern states. (Gingrich has so far won in just two states: South Carolina and his home state of Georgia.)

As Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond put it last week: "From Spartanburg all the way to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich.”

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Joshua MIller: Massachusetts: Scott Brown Up Eight Points in Latest Poll

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-scott-brown-up-eight-points-in-latest-poll/

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) led Elizabeth Warren (D) by 8 points in a new poll released today.

A survey by the Western New England University Polling Institute found 49 percent of registered Massachusetts voters would cast their ballot for Brown if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote for Warren, a Harvard professor and the presumptive Democratic nominee. Ten percent were undecided.

The poll, taken Feb. 23 through Thursday, matches two other February polls that showed Brown leading Warren in a horse-race matchup.
Brown’s job approval rating among registered voters remains relatively high. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed approved of the way he was handling his job, while 28 percent disapproved. Nineteen percent said they didn’t know.

Forty-seven percent had a favorable opinion of Brown, while 28 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Five percent of those surveyed hadn’t heard of him and 16 percent had no opinion.

Thirty-seven percent had a favorable opinion of Warren, while 20 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her. Seventeen percent of those surveyed hadn’t heard of her and 19 percent had no opinion.

“We’ll let the political pundits debate the polls and watch them go up and down over the course of this campaign,” Warren spokeswoman Alethea Harney said in a statement. “Elizabeth will keep working her heart out to talk to the people of Massachusetts about what she’ll do as their US Senator to help middle class families get ahead.”

The poll released today, conducted in partnership with the Springfield Republican newspaper and MassLive.com, used live telephone interviewers to poll 527 registered Bay State voters. The margin of error in the survey, which used random digit dialing to call both landlines and cell phones, was 4.3 points.

Trained student interviewers, as opposed to professionals, were used to conduct the poll.

Tracy Jan: Poll finds low support for Mitt Romney proposal to partially privatize Medicare

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2012/03/poll-finds-low-support-for-mitt-romney-proposal-partially-privatize-medicare/HHb0H4olN2EvWASuXefqTI/index.html

By Tracy Jan, Globe Staff

WASHINGTON -- In a wide-ranging survey of American opinion on health care, the Kaiser Family Foundation found that most oppose a Medicare proposal put forth by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney that would give seniors a fixed amount of money to buy health insurance from private plans or traditional Medicare, according to February poll results released today.

Seventy percent of those polled favored the existing Medicare structure, while 25 percent said they would support partial privatization, or “premium support.” The reaction among seniors and younger adults was the same. Among Republicans, a narrow majority -- 53 percent -- said they preferred the status quo.

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon have proposed a similar plan in order to rein in the rapidly rising costs of Medicare.

The Kaiser poll also found that most Americans do not favor major Medicare cuts in order to curb the federal budget deficit; 13 percent supported sizeable cuts, 36 percent favored minor reductions, and half opposed any cuts. The strongest opposition came from seniors.

The public, though, seemed more willing to support raising Medicare’s age of eligibility, an idea Romney has proposed and one that President Obama once said he would consider. Fifty percent opposed the concept while 47 percent support it. The majority of seniors, who already qualify for Medicare and would be grandfathered in, support the plan, while a majority of those under 65 oppose it.

A third of seniors say they would only vote for a presidential candidate who shares their views on Medicare, compared with just 20 percent of adults under age 50. Democrats are more likely than Republicans or independents to consider Medicare a make-or-break issue.

The poll also surveyed people’s views on the ongoing controversy over contraception coverage and Obama’s health reform overhaul.

About six in 10 Americans said they support the new federal requirement that insurance plans include free birth control, while a third oppose it. Catholics were split along similar lines. But a large partisan divide exists on the issue, including among women: 85 percent of women who are Democrats support the requirement, but only 42 percent of women who are Republicans favor it. Among independent women, 67 percent approve.

The contraception issue, though, falls at the bottom of the list of concerns women most want to hear presidential candidates address; 58 percent named the economy as the most pressing matter while fewer than 1 percent said contraceptive coverage.

Americans are very much divided on the health reform law, known as the Affordable Care Act -- 42 percent hold favorable views of the law and 43 percent hold unfavorable views. This reflects a 5 percentage point uptick on the favorable side since Kaiser’s January poll, driven mostly by improved views of the law among independent voters.

The survey also found that a larger share of the American public trusts President Obama over any of the Republican presidential candidates when it comes to handling the future of Medicare and health care reform.

Tracy Jan can be reached at tjan@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @GlobeTracyJan.

Kim Geiger: Poll: Santorum has double-digit lead over Romney in Ohio

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-santorum-has-doubledigit-lead-over-romney-in-ohio-20120228,0,369298.story

By Kim GeigerThis post has been corrected, as indicated below.

February 28, 2012, 10:12 a.m.

Reporting from Washington—

With just a week to go until Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 11 percentage points in a new Ohio poll of Republican primary voters, though nearly half say they could change their minds.

The poll by the University of Cincinnati shows Santorum leading the pack of GOP contenders with 37% support, followed by Mitt Romney with 26%, Newt Gingrich with 16% and Ron Paul with 11%.

Although 53% said they will “definitely vote” for their current preferred candidate, 47% of those polled said they could switch between now and Tuesday’s vote.

That may not necessarily be good news for Romney. Santorum had the highest portion of voters who said they are committed to vote for him. Forty-six percent of respondents who preferred Santorum also said they would “definitely” vote for him, compared with 24% for Romney.

As has been the case in other states, Santorum fares especially well with voters who support the"tea party" movement and voters who consider themselves born-again or evangelical Christians.

[For the record, Feb. 28: An earlier version of this post said 25% of Republican primary voters backed Mitt Romney. Twenty-six percent back Romney.]

kim.geiger@latimes.com