Kim Geiger: Polls: Santorum vs. Gingrich helps Romney in the South

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-polls-santorum-vs-gingrich-helps-romney-in-the-south-20120312,0,2302228.story

By Kim Geiger

March 12, 2012, 10:41 a.m.

Reporting from Washington —

With primaries in Alabama and Mississippi less than a day away, new polls show a tight Republican presidential contest as Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum each have a chance to win the Deep South states.

In Mississippi, Gingrich leads with 33% to Romney’s 31% and Santorum’s 27%, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in Raleigh, N.C. The firm’s Alabama survey found the race there to be even closer: Romney has 31%, Gingrich has 30% and Santorum has 29%.

The Southern primaries had been viewed as a battle between Gingrich and Santorum for the party’s more conservative wing, but conservatives' inability to choose between the two has created an opening for Romney.

In Mississippi and Alabama, nearly half of voters describe themselves as "very conservative." Romney wins just one-quarter of those voters, while Gingrich and Santorum appear to be splitting the rest. Gingrich leads Santorum 35% to 32% in Mississippi and Santorum leads Gingrich 37% to 31% in Alabama.

The result is a pair of tight races in which any of the three candidates could score a win.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is expected to finish last in both states, where the polls show his support in the single digits.

The stakes are highest for Gingrich, who has staked his campaign on a strategy that requires winning all the Southern states. (Gingrich has so far won in just two states: South Carolina and his home state of Georgia.)

As Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond put it last week: "From Spartanburg all the way to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich.”

kim.geiger@latimes.com