http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/6070435-418/cell-phones-throw-off-poll-takers.html
By Abdon M. Pallasch Political Reporter apallasch@suntimes.com June 26, 2011 6:04PM
How do you accurately poll voters in an age when increasing numbers of them own only a cell phone?
“I worry about this more than anything else — you can have a California number and still be living in Iowa,” said Ann Selzer, the only pollster to predict Barack Obama would win the Iowa Caucuses by 7 percentage points. (He won by eight.)
This will complicate tracking not only the horse-race among Republican presidential candidates trudging through Iowa county fairs this summer, but also will challenge politicians of both parties trying to navigate Illinois’ newly redrawn congressional districts.
Two weeks ago, a poll of voters in the new Joliet-Aurora-based 11th Congressional District found former Rep. Bill Foster leading potential candidate John Atkinson 36 percent to 6 percent. The poll helped persuade Atkinson to drop his potential candidacy.
About 40 percent of Hispanic households have no landline — just a cell phone. About a quarter of white families have only a cell phone.
Polling only landlines means you get lots of older, white women. You disproportionately miss young voters and minorities.
That’s part of the reason all the polls before last year’s election for governor of Illinois had Republican Bill Brady beating Democrat Pat Quinn by five percentage points or more, said Quinn’s pollster, Mark Mellman.
“It’s the failure to reach cell phone people and the focus on people easier to reach,” Mellman said. “Every poll that I saw had Gov. Quinn losing. We had him winning very narrowly.”
Mellman was simultaneously assuring Quinn and U.S. Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada that they were going to win even though the public polls showed them losing.
One of the ironies of the current state of polling is that candidates often splurge for the more expensive and more accurate telephone interview polls while cash-strapped news organization often opt for the cheaper “robocall” polls.
With robocall polls, it’s not always clear who in the house is answering the phone.
All polls put the greatest weight on respondents who identify themselves as “likely voters.”
The key, Mellman said, is to remember that some “unlikely voters” also will make it to the polls.
While likely voters favored Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle over Reid, Mellman predicted about a fifth of the electorate would be unexpected voters, who put Reid over the top.
Likewise in Illinois, more casual voters who may not have cast ballots in every previous election helped give Quinn his razor-thin victory over Brady, as Mellman forecast.
In Iowa 3 1/2 years ago, Selzer awoke to a storm of controversy when her poll for the Des Moines Register showed newcomer Obama seven points ahead of the more seasoned John Edwards and Hillary Clinton campaigns, which led most of the polls.
“There was kind of this explosion,” Selzer said. “. . . and an e-mail blitz from the Clinton campaign and the Edwards campaign saying I should be fired and the poll should be ignored.”
Selzer’s controversial poll forecast an unheard of 59 percent of new attendees at the caucuses — voters inspired by Obama who had never caucused before inspired by Obama to make their maiden voyage to caucus.
“I had a call from one Democratic precinct captain who said, ‘I’ve always trusted your polls until now. But I’ve knocked on 99 doors and I don’t find this lurking Obama support you’re talking about,’ ” Selzer said. “I said, ‘Tell me about the doors you have knocked on.’ He said, ‘Registered Democrats and former caucus attenders.’ ”
I said, ‘Well, you’re not going to find the lurking Obama support there.’ [Other pollsters] were cutting that corner — they weren’t talking to independents.”
The challenge for all pollsters is to track down cell phone users. Selzer noted that some people port their old landline numbers to their cell phones so she gets some that way.
Gallup now includes 40 percent cell phones in all their national polls.
But in smaller races for, say, a congressional district, pollsters mostly have to guess at cell phone users’ views by extrapolating from younger, minority voters they reach at home.
Years ago pollsters used to have to knock on doors, and they may have to start doing that again.
Cheaper robocall polls always miss cell phone users because laws prohibit using computers to autodial cell phone numbers.
With Obama facing no primary challenge this time around, Selzer will be polling only Republicans and independents.
She’s not too worried about Democrats infiltrating Republican caucuses to push weak Republicans. “It would be hard to think they’re going to go caucus with [Minnesota Rep.] Michele Bachmann,” Selzer said of the Iowa-born Tea Party favorite. “If Sarah Palin were in, they’d definitely go in and do that.”
Many of the more conservative candidates think they can repeat Mike Huckabee’s success last time, but Selzer rejects the characterization of Iowa’s Republican caucuses as “Camp Christian” and predicts a moderate could win.
According to the Des Moines Register’s tracker, the candidates who’ve held the most events in Iowa so far are former U.S Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (55 events); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (53), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia (43.)
Selzer and Mellman were just a few of many of the nation’s top pollsters giving their assessment of the state of polling at an American University conference in Washington, D.C., last weekend.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Sunday, July 3, 2011
JENNIFER JACOBS:Iowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/03/iowa-poll-likely-gop-caucusgoers-are-educated-religious/
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sponsored byIowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious Jennifer Jacobs 12:01 AM, Jul 3, 2011Categories: Iowa Polls
Chief political writer
More posts by Jennifer Jacobs
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© 2011, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY
Likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers are a highly educated bunch who are not wildly out of step with the rest of America in their religious profile.
That’s the stereotype-bucking picture that emerges of those who will get the nation’s first crack at narrowing the Republican presidential field early next year, based on demographic statistics gleaned from a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken June 19 to 22 and four Iowa Polls from the 2008 caucus cycle.
Here’s what you might not know about this group:
- About half have a college degree or higher. That’s more than Iowa adults or Americans in general.
- The proportion who consider themselves born-again Christians hits in the high-40 percent range, slightly above the range for the nation.
- Mirroring the national picture, they’re more likely to be male, evidence of the classic gender gap between Republican and Democratic voters.
“This tells us what an activist caucusgoer is really like, and the stereotype of Iowans at the caucus is wrong,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.
“A lot of people who are not from Iowa think caucusgoers look like somebody out of a Grant Wood picture. Somebody in bib overalls with a pitchfork, and it’s not true. There are 3 million Iowans, and less than 80,000 of them are farmers,” Yepsen said.
Factors such as the high proportion with college degrees or post-graduate education make likely Republican caucusgoers different from the average Iowan or average American, he said, “but they’re similar to activist Republicans around the country.”
“These people are engaged, they’re motivated, they’re interested in public affairs, they follow politics,” said Yepsen, a former Register political reporter and columnist. “The strength of the caucus is that activists in this profile will look a lot like activists in other states. They look like the kinds of people who are on the floor of the Republican National Convention.”
Some characteristics hold true to long-witnessed patterns on caucus night: Likely caucusgoers tend to be older, in part reflecting Iowa’s overall age profile compared to the rest of America. Median age for likely Republican caucusgoers in recent polls tended to fall in the early 50s; it’s in the mid-40s for Iowans and Americans of voting age.
And, of course, likely Iowa caucusgoers are overwhelmingly white. Whites make up 92.9 percent of Iowa’s population, according to the 2010 census.
Opponents had long objected that Iowa’s overwhelmingly white population made the state unfit for the leadoff caucus role – until Iowa Democrats chose Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses. In the most recent Iowa Poll, likely Republican caucusgoers picked the only black candidate in a field of eight, Herman Cain, for third place.
Pollsters approach breaking down demographics, especially over a period of time, with an abundance of caution. Polls reflect opinions at a moment in time. The finer the breakdown of results, the greater the margin of error. And respondents can categorize themselves differently depending on how questions are asked.
The latest Iowa Poll first asked respondents how likely it would be that they would attend the Republican caucuses in February 2012. The poll was based on those who answered that they would definitely or probably attend.
The outcome on caucus night will hinge not only on how effectively candidates convey their messages but also on how well they turn out their supporters.
As the media spotlight intensifies on Iowa, more questions arise about who will be casting the votes that start the process of determining the Republican nominee.
About 120,000 Iowans participated in the 2008 Republican caucuses. Here’s a look at likely characteristics, based on recent Iowa Polls:
RELIGION
The proportion of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers who identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christians rests in the high-40 percent range, according to four polls in 2007 and the new June poll.
“I think too much is made out of the social conservatives and their influence in the Republican caucus process,” Yepsen said. “The party is a socially conservative party, but the majority are not born-agains.”
An oft-quoted figure to support the religious-right domination thesis is a 2008 entrance poll that found 60 percent of Iowa GOP caucusgoers thought of themselves as “born-again or evangelical Christian.”
The problem is that estimates of the number of born-again or evangelical Christians in the United States vary because pollsters ask the question in a variety of ways and Americans define the term differently, said Alan Cooperman, associate director of the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Not everyone who is an evangelical is a social conservative; some evangelicals consider themselves moderates or liberals.
In Pew Research Center polling, the percentage generally ranges from the high 30s to mid-40s, which means that roughly a third to half of adults nationally say they’re born-again or evangelical Christians, said Cooperman.
In the center’s polling so far in 2011, 42 percent of Christians say they are born-again or evangelical.
And here’s another factoid that defies the mindset that religious fervor disproportionately influences Iowa’s Republican caucuses: Iowa as a whole is in the middle of the pack in terms of religiosity, according to Pew’s findings.
According to the Pew Forum’s 2007 religious landscape survey, 51 percent of all adults in Iowa said religion is very important in their lives; the national average was 56 percent. New Hampshire and Vermont were at the bottom with 36 percent, and Sarah Palin’s Alaska was second from the bottom with 37 percent. Mississippi was at the top at 82 percent.
It’s likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa are most out of step with the national trend on identification as born-again Christians. Their percentage rests in the low 20 percent range.
EDUCATION
Both likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than Iowa adults as a whole or fellow Americans to have completed college or done post-graduate work.
The figure has been just about half for likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers. In contrast, among Iowans, 28 percent have at least a college degree, according to U.S. census data. Among Americans, it’s 30 percent.
Likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to have a high school education or less. But with both parties, the figure is significantly below the percentages of Iowans and Americans with a high school education or less. It’s not surprising to see higher rates of education and income among likely caucusgoers, since they’re among the most politically active voters, said Mark Blumenthal, polling editor for HuffPost Pollster.
INCOME
About 40 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers come from households earning $70,000 or more.
That’s a higher percentage than for typical Iowans and for likely Democratic caucusgoers. Likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to come from households with incomes less than $30,000.
“Republicans tend to have higher incomes than Democrats nationally, and higher incomes are correlated with more education,” Blumenthal said. Iowa household incomes trail the national average.
But the 40 percent figure for likely Republican caucusgoers with household incomes $70,000 and above is similar to the national rate, pollsters said.
SEX
The percentage of men who say they plan to attend the Republican caucuses lands in the mid-50 percent range, and the percentage of women the mid-40 percent. It’s the opposite for Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, where women hold the majority, in the high-50 percent range.
Pollsters see that gender gap among voters nationwide.
IDEOLOGY
In the latest Iowa Poll, 80 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers described themselves as conservative: 35 percent very conservative, and 45 percent mostly conservative. Fourteen percent described themselves as moderate, 5 percent liberal, and 1 percent not sure.
“GOP caucus voters do tend to be much more conservative than the electorate as a whole,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth. “Their ideology correlates with the differences you see in terms of higher income and education levels.”
So, who does this help?
Several pollsters said the demographics look promising for Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at this early point in the caucus cycle. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the poll with 23 percent support. Bachmann was right behind at 22 percent.
Bachmann is stronger than Romney among people who line up with some of the sweet spots of likely Republican caucusgoer demographics: She’s stronger with those ages 45 to 64 and with those who have a college degree. She does much better among those who describe themselves as very conservative. She leads, but it’s close among born-again respondents.
Romney, predictably, does better with more moderate respondents, including those who label themselves mostly conservative rather than very conservative – and the mostly conservative group outnumbered the very conservative in the poll. He also did better among those with household incomes of $70,000 or higher.
But, again, it’s early.
“If it snows heavily it could be a completely different turnout,” Republican pollster David Winston said. “You’re trying to put your finger on mercury a little bit.”
HomeOpinionCandidatesPhotosVideosCandidate calendarIssues comparison
sponsored byIowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious Jennifer Jacobs 12:01 AM, Jul 3, 2011Categories: Iowa Polls
Chief political writer
More posts by Jennifer Jacobs
Print Friendly
© 2011, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY
Likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers are a highly educated bunch who are not wildly out of step with the rest of America in their religious profile.
That’s the stereotype-bucking picture that emerges of those who will get the nation’s first crack at narrowing the Republican presidential field early next year, based on demographic statistics gleaned from a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken June 19 to 22 and four Iowa Polls from the 2008 caucus cycle.
Here’s what you might not know about this group:
- About half have a college degree or higher. That’s more than Iowa adults or Americans in general.
- The proportion who consider themselves born-again Christians hits in the high-40 percent range, slightly above the range for the nation.
- Mirroring the national picture, they’re more likely to be male, evidence of the classic gender gap between Republican and Democratic voters.
“This tells us what an activist caucusgoer is really like, and the stereotype of Iowans at the caucus is wrong,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.
“A lot of people who are not from Iowa think caucusgoers look like somebody out of a Grant Wood picture. Somebody in bib overalls with a pitchfork, and it’s not true. There are 3 million Iowans, and less than 80,000 of them are farmers,” Yepsen said.
Factors such as the high proportion with college degrees or post-graduate education make likely Republican caucusgoers different from the average Iowan or average American, he said, “but they’re similar to activist Republicans around the country.”
“These people are engaged, they’re motivated, they’re interested in public affairs, they follow politics,” said Yepsen, a former Register political reporter and columnist. “The strength of the caucus is that activists in this profile will look a lot like activists in other states. They look like the kinds of people who are on the floor of the Republican National Convention.”
Some characteristics hold true to long-witnessed patterns on caucus night: Likely caucusgoers tend to be older, in part reflecting Iowa’s overall age profile compared to the rest of America. Median age for likely Republican caucusgoers in recent polls tended to fall in the early 50s; it’s in the mid-40s for Iowans and Americans of voting age.
And, of course, likely Iowa caucusgoers are overwhelmingly white. Whites make up 92.9 percent of Iowa’s population, according to the 2010 census.
Opponents had long objected that Iowa’s overwhelmingly white population made the state unfit for the leadoff caucus role – until Iowa Democrats chose Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses. In the most recent Iowa Poll, likely Republican caucusgoers picked the only black candidate in a field of eight, Herman Cain, for third place.
Pollsters approach breaking down demographics, especially over a period of time, with an abundance of caution. Polls reflect opinions at a moment in time. The finer the breakdown of results, the greater the margin of error. And respondents can categorize themselves differently depending on how questions are asked.
The latest Iowa Poll first asked respondents how likely it would be that they would attend the Republican caucuses in February 2012. The poll was based on those who answered that they would definitely or probably attend.
The outcome on caucus night will hinge not only on how effectively candidates convey their messages but also on how well they turn out their supporters.
As the media spotlight intensifies on Iowa, more questions arise about who will be casting the votes that start the process of determining the Republican nominee.
About 120,000 Iowans participated in the 2008 Republican caucuses. Here’s a look at likely characteristics, based on recent Iowa Polls:
RELIGION
The proportion of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers who identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christians rests in the high-40 percent range, according to four polls in 2007 and the new June poll.
“I think too much is made out of the social conservatives and their influence in the Republican caucus process,” Yepsen said. “The party is a socially conservative party, but the majority are not born-agains.”
An oft-quoted figure to support the religious-right domination thesis is a 2008 entrance poll that found 60 percent of Iowa GOP caucusgoers thought of themselves as “born-again or evangelical Christian.”
The problem is that estimates of the number of born-again or evangelical Christians in the United States vary because pollsters ask the question in a variety of ways and Americans define the term differently, said Alan Cooperman, associate director of the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Not everyone who is an evangelical is a social conservative; some evangelicals consider themselves moderates or liberals.
In Pew Research Center polling, the percentage generally ranges from the high 30s to mid-40s, which means that roughly a third to half of adults nationally say they’re born-again or evangelical Christians, said Cooperman.
In the center’s polling so far in 2011, 42 percent of Christians say they are born-again or evangelical.
And here’s another factoid that defies the mindset that religious fervor disproportionately influences Iowa’s Republican caucuses: Iowa as a whole is in the middle of the pack in terms of religiosity, according to Pew’s findings.
According to the Pew Forum’s 2007 religious landscape survey, 51 percent of all adults in Iowa said religion is very important in their lives; the national average was 56 percent. New Hampshire and Vermont were at the bottom with 36 percent, and Sarah Palin’s Alaska was second from the bottom with 37 percent. Mississippi was at the top at 82 percent.
It’s likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa are most out of step with the national trend on identification as born-again Christians. Their percentage rests in the low 20 percent range.
EDUCATION
Both likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than Iowa adults as a whole or fellow Americans to have completed college or done post-graduate work.
The figure has been just about half for likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers. In contrast, among Iowans, 28 percent have at least a college degree, according to U.S. census data. Among Americans, it’s 30 percent.
Likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to have a high school education or less. But with both parties, the figure is significantly below the percentages of Iowans and Americans with a high school education or less. It’s not surprising to see higher rates of education and income among likely caucusgoers, since they’re among the most politically active voters, said Mark Blumenthal, polling editor for HuffPost Pollster.
INCOME
About 40 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers come from households earning $70,000 or more.
That’s a higher percentage than for typical Iowans and for likely Democratic caucusgoers. Likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to come from households with incomes less than $30,000.
“Republicans tend to have higher incomes than Democrats nationally, and higher incomes are correlated with more education,” Blumenthal said. Iowa household incomes trail the national average.
But the 40 percent figure for likely Republican caucusgoers with household incomes $70,000 and above is similar to the national rate, pollsters said.
SEX
The percentage of men who say they plan to attend the Republican caucuses lands in the mid-50 percent range, and the percentage of women the mid-40 percent. It’s the opposite for Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, where women hold the majority, in the high-50 percent range.
Pollsters see that gender gap among voters nationwide.
IDEOLOGY
In the latest Iowa Poll, 80 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers described themselves as conservative: 35 percent very conservative, and 45 percent mostly conservative. Fourteen percent described themselves as moderate, 5 percent liberal, and 1 percent not sure.
“GOP caucus voters do tend to be much more conservative than the electorate as a whole,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth. “Their ideology correlates with the differences you see in terms of higher income and education levels.”
So, who does this help?
Several pollsters said the demographics look promising for Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at this early point in the caucus cycle. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the poll with 23 percent support. Bachmann was right behind at 22 percent.
Bachmann is stronger than Romney among people who line up with some of the sweet spots of likely Republican caucusgoer demographics: She’s stronger with those ages 45 to 64 and with those who have a college degree. She does much better among those who describe themselves as very conservative. She leads, but it’s close among born-again respondents.
Romney, predictably, does better with more moderate respondents, including those who label themselves mostly conservative rather than very conservative – and the mostly conservative group outnumbered the very conservative in the poll. He also did better among those with household incomes of $70,000 or higher.
But, again, it’s early.
“If it snows heavily it could be a completely different turnout,” Republican pollster David Winston said. “You’re trying to put your finger on mercury a little bit.”
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