Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: President gets no bounce from speech, but disapproval rating peaks

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/cnn-poll-president-gets-no-bounce-from-speech-but-disapproval-rating-peaks/

By: CNN Political Unit

CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Washington (CNN) - President Barack Obama didn't score any political points with his speech on jobs to a joint session of Congress last Thursday. According to a new CNN/ORC International poll released Tuesday, the president's approval rating stands at 43 percent, virtually unchanged from the 45 percent approval rating in the previous CNN poll.

Although this is not the lowest number of those who say they approve of how Obama is handling his job-he reached 42 percent one year ago-the number who disapprove of the president reached its highest during his presidency in the poll.

The survey reveals that 55 percent say they do not approve of how Obama is handling his duties in the White House and the number of Americans who think he is a strong leader has dropped to a new low.

"A familiar pattern in public opinion on Obama again asserts itself," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Americans don't like Obama's track record on major issues while they continue to like him personally."

Less than one in ten think Obama's policies have made the economy better, although another four in ten credit them with preventing the economy from being even worse than it is today. Thirty-seven percent say that Obama has made economic conditions worse and 15 percent think his policies have had no effect.

The president is on the road this week touting a new policy–his $447 billion jobs proposal-that he's encouraged Congress to take up and pass. With stops in Richmond, Virginia last week, Columbus, Ohio Tuesday, and North Carolina on Wednesday, the road trip appears to be doubling as a swing through battleground states.

But with more than half the nation saying Obama cannot manage the government effectively in the poll and no bounce in public opinion following his speech, the president may have his work cut out for him selling his plan to the public.

There is some good news for Obama in the poll. Among Democrats, his standing has improved. Opinions among the Democratic base have turned the corner after a drop in the wake of the debt ceiling agreement. The number of Democrats who wanted the party to renominate Obama dropped to an all-time low of 70 percent in early August, but it's on the rise now-72 percent in our last poll and 76 percent in the current survey.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International from September 9-11 among 1,038 adults by telephone. It has an overall sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Polling Workshop Videos Online

Video of Mark Blumenthal and Mark Mellman's presentations at June's workshop at American University are now online at the polling workshop homepage!

Joshua Miller: Poll: Republican Bob Turner Takes Lead in New York Special

• http://www.rollcall.com/news/Poll_Republican_Bob_Turner_Takes_Lead_in_New_York_Special-208575-1.html
• 
  
• By Joshua Miller
• Roll Call Staff
• Sept. 9, 2011, 9:30 a.m.

For Democrats who hadn't already started to panic over Tuesday's special election in New York's Brooklyn- and Queens-based 9th Congressional district, now would be a good time to start.

Republican Bob Turner led Democrat David Weprin by 6 points in the nonpartisan Siena College poll released this morning.

The nonpartisan survey conducted Tuesday through late Thursday found 50 percent of those polled would vote for Turner if the election were held "today" while 44 percent would vote for Weprin. Six percent of the 886 likely voters polled said they were undecided.

The numbers have flipped from a Siena poll a month ago, when Weprin had a 6-point lead.

In the current survey, independents broke 65 percent to 27 percent for Turner, a retired television executive who lost to then-Rep.Anthony Weiner (D) in the 2010 race for the seat.

Turner also led Weprin, a New York state Assemblyman, in both the Democratic-leaning Queens portion of the district along with the more conservative Brooklyn part of the district.

Union households supported Turner by 4 points. In the Siena poll a month ago, Weprin led in union households by 18 points.

Democrats are relying on help from a strong organized labor get-out-the-vote effort in an election that both campaigns expect to have a low turnout.

And despite the message that Democrats have been hammering home at events across the district and through ads and direct mail — that Turner would cut benefits for Medicare and Social Security — the Republican led 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters older than 55. In the Siena poll one month ago, Weprin held a small lead in that demographic.

A plurality of likely voters think Weprin is running the more negative campaign, according to the poll.

While there may not be long-term national implications if Democrats lose this district, it may well call into question the political efficacy of their national strategy of knocking Republicans for wanting to undermine popular entitlement programs.

"With four days until election day, this race is going down to the wire," pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. "While Turner leads and has momentum on his side, this is still a heavily Democratic district and in a low turnout special election, the campaigns' get-out-the-vote operations are going to be key. There's still a lot of campaigning yet to happen."

The live telephone poll had a margin of error of 3.3 points.

Roll Call is changing its rating of the race from Leans Democratic to Tossup.

Joshua Miller: Poll: Scott Brown Popularity Remains Above 50 Percent

http://www.rollcall.com/news/Scott-Brown-poll-popular-Massachusetts-Senate-208483-1.html?pos=hbtxt

By Joshua Miller
Roll Call Staff
Sept. 6, 2011, 1:23 p.m.

The majority of likely Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of Sen. Scott Brown (R), according to a new poll released today.

Fifty-four percent of those polled said they had a favorable view of Brown, while 25 percent had an unfavorable view of the state’s junior Senator. Brown, who won an unexpected victory in a January 2010 special election, is extremely well-known in the state. Only 5 percent of those surveyed said they hadn’t heard of him

The WBUR poll, conducted by MassINC polling group, showed Brown ahead of Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren in a theoretical matchup.

If the election were held today, 44 percent said they would vote for Brown, 35 percent said they would cast their ballot for Warren and 18 percent said they did not know.

Warren, who until August was charged with ramping up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, appears set to join the crowded Democratic field to take on Brown. She received a warm reception at a speech she gave to union members and activistsMonday, getting a standing ovation when she alluded to a possible Senate bid.

Brown was well ahead in other horse-race matchups with declared Democratic candidates, none of whom are known statewide, in the poll. Brown polled at 46 percent against Newton Mayor Setti Warren, who got 28 percent; Brown pulled 45 percent against City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, who got 30 percent; and the Senator received 45 percent versus activist Bob Massie, who got 29 percent.

The live telephone poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 1 and had a margin of error of 4.4 points. Roll Call Politics currently rates the race as a Tossup.

BILL GRAY: C-SPAN TO DO POLLING 101 9/6 AT8:45AM

C-SPAN did a segment this am on Understanding Polling with Pew's Scott Keeter

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/301368-4

Scott Keeter on the Mechanics of PollingSep 6, 2011C-SPAN | Washington Journal

Scott Keeter talked about how polling works, and described how polls are crafted, surveyed, and analyzed. Topics include polling samples, weighting, margin of error, and tabling of statistical analysis. He responded to telephone .. Read More
Scott Keeter talked about how polling works, and described how polls are crafted, surveyed, and analyzed. Topics include polling samples, weighting, margin of error, and tabling of statistical analysis. He responded to telephone calls and electronic communications.

Joshua Miller: GOP Poll: N.Y. Special to Replace Weiner Tied

• http://www.rollcall.com/news/David-Weprin-Bob-Turner-NY-special-Weiner-poll-208424-1.html?pos=hln
• 
  
• By Joshua Miller
• Roll Call Staff
• Sept. 1, 2011, 3:46 p.m.
  Updated: 5:15 p.m.

A new Republican-commissioned poll showed the race to replace ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) in New York’s 9th district to be a dead heat.

A McLaughlin & Associates poll of 300 likely voters found 42 percent would vote for state Assemblyman David Weprin (D) while 42 percent said they would vote for retired businessman Bob Turner (R).

Sixteen percent of those polled said they were undecided with less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 13 special election. The poll was conducted for Turner's campaign.

“With adequate resources, Bob Turner’s campaign will ... defeat David Weprin on September 13th. This is a very similar dynamic to [Republican] Scott Brown’s Senate victory in Massachusetts,” GOP pollster John McLaughlin wrote in a memo.

The live telephone survey, conducted Wednesday, had a margin of error of 5.7 points.

A Siena College poll released in early August showed Weprinleading by 6 points.

Democrats have a decided registration advantage in the district, but Barack Obama carried it in 2008 with only 55 percent of the vote. And in the conservative Brooklyn portion of the 9th, 57 percent of voters cast their ballot for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Although Weprin remains favored to win the race — Roll Call rates it Likely Democratic — the dynamics of the district and the likelihood of a low-turnout election make an upset possible.

In an interview with Roll Call before the poll came out, Turner, 70, said a low-turnout election was to be expected.

“In this election, we think, on past performances and so on, that we’ll only have a 17 percent turnout,” he said. “Maybe as this takes off and heats up it could be higher, and I hope so.”

“I think the higher the turnout would suggest that the disaffected and the unhappy and the protests would be stronger, so we’ll see,” Turner said.

Kim Geiger: Rick Perry is "tea party" favorite in new Gallup poll

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/26/news/la-pn-tea-party-gallup-20110826

August 26, 2011 | By Kim Geiger

Michele Bachmann may be the head of the Tea Party Caucus in Congress, but Rick Perry is the "tea party’s" presidential favorite, according to a new Gallup poll.

Thirty-five percent of Republican voters who support the tea party movement told Gallup last week that they prefer Perry out of a field of eight GOP presidential contenders. By comparison, just 14% favored Bachmann.

The poll was conducted Aug. 17-21 and has a margin of error of four percentage points. It’s the same poll that showed Perry with a considerable lead over the rest of the GOP presidential field among all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

As Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones points out in an analysis of the poll results, more than half – 58% -- of the Republican and Republican-leaning independents who were surveyed said they were supporters of the tea party movement. Within that group, about 12% said they were “strong” supporters. Those “strong” supporters prefer Perry by an even wider margin – 46%, compared with16% who prefer Bachmann.

Bachmann has long associated herself with the tea party movement. The Minnesota congresswoman founded the Tea Party Caucus back in July 2010. At the invitation of the Tea Party Express, an influential group within the movement, she delivered a rebuttal to President Obama’s State of the Union address last January.

Yet Bachmann tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for second place among tea party supporters in the new Gallup poll. In July, before Perry had entered the race, Gallup found that Romney had a slight lead over Bachmann – 29% to 23% -- among tea party Republicans.

kim.geiger@latimes.com