Joshua Miller: New York: Buerkle Up Against Maffei in New Poll

http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-ann-marie-buerkle-up-against-dan-maffei-new-poll/

By Joshua Miller Posted at 12:04 a.m. on April 24

Freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.), whose re-election prospects were damaged by redistricting, begins the race with a slight lead, according to a GOP poll obtained by Roll Call.

Buerkle led former Rep. Dan Maffei 42 percent to 38 percent, while 20 percent were undecided in the poll of 400 likely general election voters in the reconfigured 24th district.

Buerkle struggled mightily with fundraising during her first year in Congress. But her allies say her operation has turned around. They point to the fact that she raised $238,000 in the first quarter of the year, the most she’s raised in any quarter of her political career. But after posting dismal numbers ($89,000 in the third quarter of 2011), it’s a dubious achievement.

Still, with this poll, the conventional wisdom about Buerkle and her low chances of coming back to Washington, D.C., in January may begin to change.

The McLaughlin & Associates survey, conducted by live telephone interview April 16-17, had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

Julie Hirschfeld Davis: Obama Edges Romney: Poll

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-19/obama-edges-romney-christie-favored-for-running-mate

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis on April 19, 2012

President Barack Obama holds a small lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll showing a tight contest fueled by voter discontent with the president’s handling of the economy.

Obama drew support from 46 percent of registered voters and held a large advantage among women. Romney was backed by 42 percent in the poll and held slight edges over the president on the economy, creating jobs and dealing with gasoline prices and immigration.

More troublesome for Obama, the poll, conducted April 11- 17, found voters unhappy with his handling of the economy, with 56 percent saying they disapprove compared with 38 percent who approve.

The results suggest voters view Obama and Romney along lines similar to the partisan differences that have marked other close elections of the recent past, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama “has a big lead among women and is seen as the candidate most in tune with their needs,” Brown said in a statement released with the poll. “He is seen as more in touch with average Americans,” and “Romney seems to hold an edge on the economy -- the top issue of the campaign -- and holds his own against the incumbent on being a strong leader.”

Leadership Question

Sixty-one percent said Romney has strong leadership qualities, compared with 60 percent for Obama -- a statistically insignificant difference in a poll whose margin of error is plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. Quinnipiac surveyed 2,577 voters.

Obama holds a 10-point advantage among women in the poll. He was backed by 49 percent compared with Romney’s 39 percent. Obama trails slightly with men, with 43 percent supporting him compared with Romney’s 46 percent.

The racial gap is wider, with Romney leading Obama among white voters 52 percent to 36 percent, while Obama bests the Republican among blacks, who support him 94 percent to 3 percent. Obama also leads among Hispanics, with 64 percent supporting the president compared with 24 percent for Romney.

The poll found that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who became a Romney supporter last year after declining entreaties from Republican leaders to challenge him for the nomination, is the best-known and best-liked of Romney’s potential vice presidential choices.

Good Choice

Thirty-one percent called Christie a good choice compared with 18 percent who disagreed and 49 percent who said they didn’t have an opinion. He drew support from 33 percent of independent voters, who could form a crucial swing bloc in November, with 18 percent of them saying he wouldn’t be a good selection.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, also mentioned as possible running mates for Romney, were next in line behind Christie, although not as well-known, with 58 percent saying they had “no opinion” of them.

Rubio drew support from 24 percent of all voters surveyed and 27 percent of independents, while Ryan was labeled a good choice by 23 percent overall and 25 percent of independents.

Other vice presidential prospects proved lesser known among voters, drawing “no opinion” counts above 60 percent.

“At this point, Christie, who recently said he would not rule out running with Romney, has an edge with the public, but the vice presidency goes to the winner of an election with one voter -- Mitt Romney,” Brown said.

Running Mate Search

Romney’s campaign has announced that senior adviser Beth Myers, his former gubernatorial chief of staff and 2008 campaign manager, would run his search for a running mate.

Christie told reporters April 17 that, while “I’m not looking to do it,” it would be “extraordinarily arrogant” of him not to listen to Romney if he were to ask him to join the Republican presidential ticket. If “Mitt Romney calls and wants to discuss it with me, I will sit down and talk with Governor Romney about it,” he said.

Rubio has repeatedly dismissed speculation that he would be Romney’s pick. “That’s not what I want to be; that’s not what I intend to be, and that’s not going to happen,” he told Fox News on March 27 when he endorsed Romney.

Ryan told the Wall Street Journal’s website in an April 11 video interview that he hasn’t considered being Romney’s running mate, saying, “It’s his decision months from now, not mine, so why spend my time thinking about it?”

Voters rated Obama more favorably than Romney on women’s issues -- 52 percent said he would do a better job compared with 32 percent for Romney.

The president also fared better on foreign policy, preferred by 46 percent compared with 40 percent for Romney.

Romney surpassed the president on handling of the economy, 47 percent to 43 percent; on creating jobs, 45 percent to Obama’s 42 percent; on gas prices, 44 percent to 31 percent; and on immigration, 43 percent to 39 percent. The two scored equally on taxes and health care.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at   or Jdavis159@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net

Joshua Miller: Gallup: Congressional Approval Ticks Up to 17 Percent

http://atr.rollcall.com/gallup-congressional-approval-ticks-up-to-17-percent/

By Joshua Miller Posted at 8:56 a.m. on April 19

Maybe Americans have learned to hate the game and not the players. But probably not.

Approval of the way Congress is handling its job ticked up to 17 percent, the highest since last July, according to the latest Gallup poll, released this morning.

That’s a bit higher than the all-time low of 10 percent in February.

Disapproval of Congress now stands at 79 percent, also the lowest disapproval number the respected polling company found since July.

Gallup noted that the upward trend in approval of Congress may be a lagging indicator of Americans’ increasing satisfaction with the way things are going generally in the United States. Republicans and Democrats view the way Congress is doing its job with about equal favorability.

The live telephone interview poll of 1,016 adults was conducted on cell phones and landlines from April 9-12. Using random digit dialing, Gallup interviewed Americans in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in English and Spanish. The poll had a margin of error of 4 points.

Kim Geiger: Polls: Americans divided over taxes but support 'Buffett rule'

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/16/news/la-pn-polls-americans-divided-over-taxes-but-support-buffett-rule-20120416


April 16, 2012|By Kim Geiger

As the Senate considers President Obama’s “Buffett rule” to require that millionaires and billionaires pay at least 30% income tax, a new poll suggests the proposal is quite popular with the American public.

Nearly three-quarters – 72% –  of Americans say they support the idea, according to a CNN survey of 1,015 Americans, including 910 registered voters.

While the proposal was favored more heavily by Democrats (90%), people who make less than $50,000 a year (79%), and people who live in urban areas (79%), a majority of all groups supported it, except for those who identify with the tea party movement and those who consider themselves conservatives.

Tea party supporters opposed the proposal 58% to 40%. Conservatives opposed it 49% to 51%, but people who identified as Republicans supported it 53% to 46%.

Meanwhile, less than half of Americans say their current tax bill is too high, according to a recent Gallup poll, which found the public divided on whether or not they pay too much.

Forty-seven percent said they think the amount they pay in federal income taxes is “just right,” while 46% said it is too high. Asked if they believe the amount they will pay in income taxes this year is “fair,” 59% said they consider it fair while 37% said they thought it was unfair.

Historically, the responses are not out of the norm. Americans have felt better about the taxes they pay – both the amount and the fairness of the tax – since the Bush tax cuts went into effect in the early 2000s.

But Americans had been growing less pleased with the tax situation in recent years. In 2011, 50% said the taxes they paid were too high, up from 48% in 2010. And 40% said they considered their income taxes unfair, up from 36% in 2010. The trend has reversed among people who make more than $30,000 a year,  but it has persisted among lower income Americans. In 2008, 27% of low-income Americans said their income taxes are not fair – today, it has climbed to 38%.

Gallup’s Lydia Saad observed in an analysis accompanying the poll findings that the discontent among low-income Americans may be due to the increased focus on taxes in political discourse.

“Perhaps because of the slow economy, or because of recent discussion of the ‘Buffett rule’  and President Barack Obama’s related interest in shifting a greater proportion of the nation’s tax bill to high-income Americans, low-income Americans have grown increasingly discontent since 2009 with the amount and fairness of their own taxes,” Saad wrote.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Alex Roarty: Political Insiders Poll

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/mitt-romney-survivor-20120412

By Alex Roarty, Naureen Khan and Peter Bell

Updated:
April 12, 2012 | 4:00 p.m.

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being not at all and 10 being fatal, how much has the GOP primary hurt Mitt Romney?

Democrats (104 votes)

Average: 6.7

Low Damage (1-3): 6%
Moderate Damage (4-6): 28%
High Damage (7-10): 66%

Low (1-3)

“Despite the ‘conventional wisdom,’ a longer, tougher primary season makes for stronger nominees and better presidents; better to be the victor than the anointed.” 

Moderate (4-6)

“All primaries hurt the eventual nominee. While this primary has not been helpful, his problems with the base were there before the primary.”

“Primaries almost always look like they are more harmful in their waning days than they do by Election Day. This moment is, in all likelihood, as bad as Mitt Romney will look the entire cycle.”

“Not only was he pulled much further to the extreme right than most swing voters, he was exposed as an elitist and a flip-flopper, all at the same time. A disastrous trifecta for him and a messaging dream for the Democrats.”

High (7-10)

“The numbers speak for themselves. Last year, Romney was running ahead of to even with the president. Now he’s behind by 8 to 10 points.”

“Not fatal but a grievous injury. Voters in the center who decide elections just HATE the tea party sucking-up, and Latinos are moving to Obama in droves.”

“In 30 years, I’ve never seen such a damaging primary season. Attacking one another is one thing. Attacking contraceptives and college is another.”

“Romney has been defined by it as antiwoman and anti-minority, and it will now take a major, unexpected turn in the economy or in foreign affairs to get him out of the hole he is nominated into.”

“To paraphrase Spinal Tap, this one should go to 11. He is damaged goods today in a way that he was not in January.”

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being not at all and 10 being fatal, how much has the GOP primary hurt Mitt Romney?

Republicans (101 votes)

Average: 4.3

Low Damage (1-3): 42%
Moderate Damage (4-6): 43%
High Damage (7-10): 16%

Low (1-3)

“Every four years, reporters write this story. This will be old news soon, and voters will be focused on the next four years.”

“Winners win, and Romney won. The angst over the GOP base not coming together assumes there is not unifying hatred of Obama. That assumption is false.”

Moderate (4-6)

“Flipping Mitt’s image from net-favorable to net-unfavorable among swing voters costs more than the time and money lost.”

“A bit worse than normal but repairable and survivable, and he is a far better candidate than at the start.”

“In a few more weeks, this will be long forgotten. The spears thrown between the Obama and Romney camps will make the primary look like a spitball contest.”

“It hasn’t hurt him any more than a primary hurts any candidate for office. Every candidate has to be prepared to confront their negatives, and Romney is now ready.”

“The primaries have damaged his brand, but at the end of the day, the election will be a referendum on the president, not on how Romney handled his intramural scrimmage.”

High (7-10)

“Some of this will fade away, but Romney made enough gaffes to enhance the Obama campaign’s already-stellar opposition research book.”

“Republican activists have once again demonstrated that they excel at the art of purity over victory. They have proven that when they talk about the economy, they really are just using the issue as a screen to mask their extremist social agenda.”

Which presidential battleground state will play the most pivotal role in the general election?

Democrats (102 votes)

Ohio: 36%
Florida: 40%
Virginia: 14%
Pennsylvania: 6%
Colorado: 2%
Nevada: 2%

Ohio

“Ohio. So what else is new?”

“It always comes down to Ohio. If you can’t win in Ohio, you’ll have difficulty throughout the Midwest.”

 “Any campaign pitting the 99 percent against the 1 percent will start in places like Ohio.”

Florida

“Obama is more likely to win in Florida than in Ohio, and he needs to win one of them.”

“If Obama wins Florida, the Republicans cannot get to 270. In contrast, Obama has several paths to victory.”

 “I just don’t see how the Republicans peel off 93 electoral votes without Florida.”

Virginia

“Romney will win Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida. Obama will win Ohio and Pennsylvania. Virginia is anybody’s guess, and with the [Tim] Kaine-[George] Allen Senate race likely to go down to the wire, control of the Senate could also be at stake.”

Pennsylvania

“Obama must make up ground in a state he won easily in 2008 to prevent a big electoral swing to the GOP.”

Colorado

“Colorado, like Nevada and other southwestern states, is pivotal terrain in the new Democratic majority, as Democrats have no hold in the South.”

Nevada

“All about Hispanics.”

Which presidential battleground state will play the most pivotal role in the general election?

Republicans (100 votes) 

Ohio: 54%
Florida: 19%
Virginia: 9%
Pennsylvania: 8%
Colorado: 8%
Nevada: 2%

Ohio

“No Ohio, no victory.”

“Ohio will be ground zero for the test of the two approaches to the economy.”

“No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying the state of Ohio.”

Florida

“If the polls about the Jewish vote dropping off for Obama are correct, Florida could be a major stumbling block.”

“If the GOP can overcome Obama’s ‘Mediscare’ tactics, Romney will win handily.”

“It’s a necessary route back for the Republicans with older people and Hispanic voters. And it’s an expanding state.”

Virginia

“The results will indicate whether Virginia (and North Carolina) are still competitive or whether they have soured on the extreme social agenda of Republicans for the long term.”

Pennsylvania

“Way too early to even speculate, but if the GOP carries Pennsylvania, they are not going to leave.”

“Romney is ahead, and his conservative brand doesn’t frighten eastern [states]. If Obama can’t hold the Keystone State, he’s toast.”

Colorado

“All six will be hard-fought, yet only a meltdown denies Florida, Ohio, and Virginia to the Republicans or Pennsylvania to the Democrats. Each can survive losing Nevada. But Colorado is a must-win for both.”

______________

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appeared in the Saturday, April 14, 2012 edition of National Journal.