Joshua MIller: Massachusetts: Scott Brown Up Eight Points in Latest Poll

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-scott-brown-up-eight-points-in-latest-poll/

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) led Elizabeth Warren (D) by 8 points in a new poll released today.

A survey by the Western New England University Polling Institute found 49 percent of registered Massachusetts voters would cast their ballot for Brown if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote for Warren, a Harvard professor and the presumptive Democratic nominee. Ten percent were undecided.

The poll, taken Feb. 23 through Thursday, matches two other February polls that showed Brown leading Warren in a horse-race matchup.
Brown’s job approval rating among registered voters remains relatively high. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed approved of the way he was handling his job, while 28 percent disapproved. Nineteen percent said they didn’t know.

Forty-seven percent had a favorable opinion of Brown, while 28 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Five percent of those surveyed hadn’t heard of him and 16 percent had no opinion.

Thirty-seven percent had a favorable opinion of Warren, while 20 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her. Seventeen percent of those surveyed hadn’t heard of her and 19 percent had no opinion.

“We’ll let the political pundits debate the polls and watch them go up and down over the course of this campaign,” Warren spokeswoman Alethea Harney said in a statement. “Elizabeth will keep working her heart out to talk to the people of Massachusetts about what she’ll do as their US Senator to help middle class families get ahead.”

The poll released today, conducted in partnership with the Springfield Republican newspaper and MassLive.com, used live telephone interviewers to poll 527 registered Bay State voters. The margin of error in the survey, which used random digit dialing to call both landlines and cell phones, was 4.3 points.

Trained student interviewers, as opposed to professionals, were used to conduct the poll.

Tracy Jan: Poll finds low support for Mitt Romney proposal to partially privatize Medicare

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2012/03/poll-finds-low-support-for-mitt-romney-proposal-partially-privatize-medicare/HHb0H4olN2EvWASuXefqTI/index.html

By Tracy Jan, Globe Staff

WASHINGTON -- In a wide-ranging survey of American opinion on health care, the Kaiser Family Foundation found that most oppose a Medicare proposal put forth by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney that would give seniors a fixed amount of money to buy health insurance from private plans or traditional Medicare, according to February poll results released today.

Seventy percent of those polled favored the existing Medicare structure, while 25 percent said they would support partial privatization, or “premium support.” The reaction among seniors and younger adults was the same. Among Republicans, a narrow majority -- 53 percent -- said they preferred the status quo.

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon have proposed a similar plan in order to rein in the rapidly rising costs of Medicare.

The Kaiser poll also found that most Americans do not favor major Medicare cuts in order to curb the federal budget deficit; 13 percent supported sizeable cuts, 36 percent favored minor reductions, and half opposed any cuts. The strongest opposition came from seniors.

The public, though, seemed more willing to support raising Medicare’s age of eligibility, an idea Romney has proposed and one that President Obama once said he would consider. Fifty percent opposed the concept while 47 percent support it. The majority of seniors, who already qualify for Medicare and would be grandfathered in, support the plan, while a majority of those under 65 oppose it.

A third of seniors say they would only vote for a presidential candidate who shares their views on Medicare, compared with just 20 percent of adults under age 50. Democrats are more likely than Republicans or independents to consider Medicare a make-or-break issue.

The poll also surveyed people’s views on the ongoing controversy over contraception coverage and Obama’s health reform overhaul.

About six in 10 Americans said they support the new federal requirement that insurance plans include free birth control, while a third oppose it. Catholics were split along similar lines. But a large partisan divide exists on the issue, including among women: 85 percent of women who are Democrats support the requirement, but only 42 percent of women who are Republicans favor it. Among independent women, 67 percent approve.

The contraception issue, though, falls at the bottom of the list of concerns women most want to hear presidential candidates address; 58 percent named the economy as the most pressing matter while fewer than 1 percent said contraceptive coverage.

Americans are very much divided on the health reform law, known as the Affordable Care Act -- 42 percent hold favorable views of the law and 43 percent hold unfavorable views. This reflects a 5 percentage point uptick on the favorable side since Kaiser’s January poll, driven mostly by improved views of the law among independent voters.

The survey also found that a larger share of the American public trusts President Obama over any of the Republican presidential candidates when it comes to handling the future of Medicare and health care reform.

Tracy Jan can be reached at tjan@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @GlobeTracyJan.

Kim Geiger: Poll: Santorum has double-digit lead over Romney in Ohio

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-santorum-has-doubledigit-lead-over-romney-in-ohio-20120228,0,369298.story

By Kim GeigerThis post has been corrected, as indicated below.

February 28, 2012, 10:12 a.m.

Reporting from Washington—

With just a week to go until Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by 11 percentage points in a new Ohio poll of Republican primary voters, though nearly half say they could change their minds.

The poll by the University of Cincinnati shows Santorum leading the pack of GOP contenders with 37% support, followed by Mitt Romney with 26%, Newt Gingrich with 16% and Ron Paul with 11%.

Although 53% said they will “definitely vote” for their current preferred candidate, 47% of those polled said they could switch between now and Tuesday’s vote.

That may not necessarily be good news for Romney. Santorum had the highest portion of voters who said they are committed to vote for him. Forty-six percent of respondents who preferred Santorum also said they would “definitely” vote for him, compared with 24% for Romney.

As has been the case in other states, Santorum fares especially well with voters who support the"tea party" movement and voters who consider themselves born-again or evangelical Christians.

[For the record, Feb. 28: An earlier version of this post said 25% of Republican primary voters backed Mitt Romney. Twenty-six percent back Romney.]

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Kim Geiger: Poll: Most voters believe healthcare mandate is unconstitutional

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-most-voters-believe-individual-mandate-unconstitutional-20120227,0,145991.story

By Kim Geiger

February 27, 2012, 9:50 a.m.

Reporting from Washington —

Nearly two years after President Obama signed his landmark healthcare package into law, three-quarters of registered voters believe the law’s requirement that every American carry health insurance is unconstitutional, according to a new survey.

A USA Today/Gallup poll taken earlier this month and released Monday found that a majority of voters -- those surveyed in battleground states and nationwide generally -- agreed in their dislike of the Affordable Care Act. Voters in battleground states are more likely to want it repealed, the poll showed.

Fifty-three percent of voters polled in battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin – said they would favor repealing the law if a Republican is elected president in November. Nationwide, 40% said they would favor repeal.

A majority of voters – 50% nationwide and 53% in battleground states – consider the law a bad thing. The vast majority of voters feel the law has so far had no effect on them or their families, but more than 40% believe it will ultimately make things worse.

The results are disappointing news for President Obama, whose reelection campaign counts enactment of the healthcare law as a signature achievement of his administration. And voters’ dislike of the law is likely to be revived next month when the Supreme Court hears arguments in a case challenging the constitutionality of the law.

The survey also polled voters on their general election preferences. Nationwide, Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 47% each, according to the poll. Rick Santorum holds a 3 percentage point advantage with 49% compared to Obama’s 46%. Both results are within the sampling error of four percentage points.

Of a number of polls released Monday, the USA Today/Gallup survey painted the gloomiest picture for Obama. A Rasmussen tracking poll showed Obama leading Romney 45% to 43% and ahead of Santorum, 47% to 42%. A Politico/GWU/Battleground poll showed Obama leading Romney 53% to 43% and leading Santorum 53% to 42%.

It is not unusual for results to vary widely among different polls, as methodology and subject matter can skew results. For example, as we noted last week, a recent polling experiment by Marquette University Law School found that the order of pollsters’ questions can impact respondents’ favorability toward a candidate. In that survey, Obama’s favorability was greater among respondents who were asked job-approval questions before being asked about the economy.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Kim Geiger: Poll shows Romney losing ground to Santorum in Arizona

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-rick-santorum-gaining-on-mitt-romney-in-arizona-20120221,0,1738853.story

By Kim Geiger

February 21, 2012, 2:37 p.m.

Reporting from Washington—

Rick Santorum is within striking distance of Mitt Romney in Arizona, a state that was considered reliable Romney territory just weeks ago, according to a new TIME/CNN poll.

Thirty-six percent of likely Republican voters back Romney while 32% support Santorum. The poll, which was conducted Sunday through Monday, has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, meaning the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat.

Newt Gingrich ranks third with 18% support, followed byRon Paul with 6%.

It is the second poll this week to find Romney and Santorum running neck-and-neck in Arizona, with just one week before Arizona’s GOP presidential primary. Previous polls showed Romney with double-digit leads over his competitors in the state, where he placed second behind John McCain in 2008.

Not surprisingly, social conservatives have been key to Santorum’s surge.

He leads Romney 37% to 28% among "born-again" Christians. And the candidates are tied among voters who described themselves as conservatives, as “blue-collar” voters and as supporters of the tea party movement, according to a Time analysis of the poll results.

Romney, however, enjoys substantial leads among voters who make less than $50,000/year, “white-collar Republicans, college graduates and voters who are not tea party supporters.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Jennifer Jacobs: Iowa Poll, main story: Obama trails trio from GOP

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/02/19/iowa-poll-main-story-obama-trails-trio-from-gop/

1:00 PM, Feb 19, 2012 | by Jennifer Jacobs

Three of the four Republican candidates would beat President Barack Obama in Iowa if the general election were held today, signaling that a state where the Democrat found first love four years ago is now a danger zone.

Only Newt Gingrich would lose to Obama, according to a new Iowa Poll of likely voters of all political stripes.

Here’s a news flash: The candidate who does best against Obama in Iowa is Ron Paul, a Republican with crossover appeal with non-Republicans.

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney also win head-to-head match-ups with the Democratic president.

“This is not a secure state for Obama,” said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register.

The president’s job approval is 46 percent in Iowa, just one point above his lowest low of 45 percent in September 2010.

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

The Hawkeye State has been awash in GOP messages, and, perhaps as a consequence, it’s in a Republican mood.

Millions of dollars of attack ads and months of campaign trail harping about Obama did their damage, said Paul Begala, a Washington, D.C.-based Democratic strategist and political commentator for CNN.

“More than any other early state, the discussion in the Iowa GOP contest centered on attacking the president,” Begala said. “The enduring lesson is that unanswered attacks do real damage.”

Iowa equipped Obama with training wheels by handing him a win in the first-in-the-nation Democratic caucuses in 2008, then handed him a driver’s license with a 9.7 percentage-point win in the general election.

Obama needs a strong and vigorous counterattack to nail a repeat victory here, said Begala, also a close adviser to Bill Clinton during his 1992 presidential race. Obama will need to be in Iowa — campaign in Iowa, run advertisements in Iowa and organize his get-out-the-vote operation in Iowa, Begala said.

“And I’m sure he’ll do all three,” he said. “These Iowa numbers are counter to the national trend, which suggests President Obama can turn them around.”

Obama’s favorability numbers are rising nationally, while the GOP favorability numbers are going down, Begala noted.

The Iowa Poll was conducted Feb. 12-15, surveying 800 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Election questions were asked of 611 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

Even as the national economy shores itself, only 30 percent of Iowa adults think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, while 64 percent say things have gotten on the wrong track.

Independent voter Krissy Dewandel, a teacher from Larchwood, said she would vote for any of the Republican candidates, and she especially likes Santorum. She has disdain for Paul, but she would still vote for him against the president.

“Somebody’s got to beat Obama — he sucks,” said Dewandel, 53.

“The debt, the stupid health care plan, the economy. There isn’t anything right.”

It also irritates Dewandel that Obama rejected a permit for a controversial oil pipeline from Canada to U.S. refineries.

“If they could get gas prices down to a reasonable level — I don’t have money to spend on other stuff because I’m plunking $50 into my car every time I turn around,” she said. “And the pipeline would provide jobs.”

Perceptions about the economy will be key to Obama’s fate, and if gas prices keep rising, he could be in real trouble, political analysts said.

Just 38 percent of Iowans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Kim Geiger: Poll: Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/17/news/la-pn-poll-scott-brown-leads-elizabeth-warren-in-massachusetts-20120217

February 17, 2012|By Kim Geiger

Reporting from Washington — Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, whose upset victory in early 2010 marked the moment when many started to take the tea party movement seriously, leads his likely 2012 Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by 9 percentage points, according to a new survey of voters.

Brown has 49% support compared with Warren’s 40%, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday.

Warren, whose reputation as a consumer advocate has made her the darling of progressive activists, holds a commanding lead over her Democratic challengers for the party’s nomination, which will be decided in the primary election Sept. 6.

But she has been unable to win the support of independents, who make up more than half of Massachusetts’ voters. Sixty percent of independents support Brown while 28% support Warren.

“Scott Brown’s popularity and appeal are overpowering the efforts of Elizabeth Warren, who struggles to introduce herself to the larger pool of Massachusetts voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Warren’s support does not have traction among independents.”

Nearly two-thirds of independents also believe there is a benefit to having one Democratic and one Republican senator representing Massachusetts. As a whole, 60% of general election voters agreed that split party representation was beneficial.

Sen. John F. Kerry, a Democrat, is the senior senator from the state. Brown won the seat occupied for nearly half a century by the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, a Democrat.

Brown is also well-liked by voters, with 52% giving him a favorable rating compared with 28% unfavorable. Warren’s favorability is considerably lower -- 35% -- but like Brown, just 28% view her unfavorably.

The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 11-15 using live telephone interviews.

kim.geiger@latimes.com