Kim Geiger: Poll: Most voters believe healthcare mandate is unconstitutional

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-most-voters-believe-individual-mandate-unconstitutional-20120227,0,145991.story

By Kim Geiger

February 27, 2012, 9:50 a.m.

Reporting from Washington —

Nearly two years after President Obama signed his landmark healthcare package into law, three-quarters of registered voters believe the law’s requirement that every American carry health insurance is unconstitutional, according to a new survey.

A USA Today/Gallup poll taken earlier this month and released Monday found that a majority of voters -- those surveyed in battleground states and nationwide generally -- agreed in their dislike of the Affordable Care Act. Voters in battleground states are more likely to want it repealed, the poll showed.

Fifty-three percent of voters polled in battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin – said they would favor repealing the law if a Republican is elected president in November. Nationwide, 40% said they would favor repeal.

A majority of voters – 50% nationwide and 53% in battleground states – consider the law a bad thing. The vast majority of voters feel the law has so far had no effect on them or their families, but more than 40% believe it will ultimately make things worse.

The results are disappointing news for President Obama, whose reelection campaign counts enactment of the healthcare law as a signature achievement of his administration. And voters’ dislike of the law is likely to be revived next month when the Supreme Court hears arguments in a case challenging the constitutionality of the law.

The survey also polled voters on their general election preferences. Nationwide, Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 47% each, according to the poll. Rick Santorum holds a 3 percentage point advantage with 49% compared to Obama’s 46%. Both results are within the sampling error of four percentage points.

Of a number of polls released Monday, the USA Today/Gallup survey painted the gloomiest picture for Obama. A Rasmussen tracking poll showed Obama leading Romney 45% to 43% and ahead of Santorum, 47% to 42%. A Politico/GWU/Battleground poll showed Obama leading Romney 53% to 43% and leading Santorum 53% to 42%.

It is not unusual for results to vary widely among different polls, as methodology and subject matter can skew results. For example, as we noted last week, a recent polling experiment by Marquette University Law School found that the order of pollsters’ questions can impact respondents’ favorability toward a candidate. In that survey, Obama’s favorability was greater among respondents who were asked job-approval questions before being asked about the economy.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Kim Geiger: Poll shows Romney losing ground to Santorum in Arizona

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-rick-santorum-gaining-on-mitt-romney-in-arizona-20120221,0,1738853.story

By Kim Geiger

February 21, 2012, 2:37 p.m.

Reporting from Washington—

Rick Santorum is within striking distance of Mitt Romney in Arizona, a state that was considered reliable Romney territory just weeks ago, according to a new TIME/CNN poll.

Thirty-six percent of likely Republican voters back Romney while 32% support Santorum. The poll, which was conducted Sunday through Monday, has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, meaning the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat.

Newt Gingrich ranks third with 18% support, followed byRon Paul with 6%.

It is the second poll this week to find Romney and Santorum running neck-and-neck in Arizona, with just one week before Arizona’s GOP presidential primary. Previous polls showed Romney with double-digit leads over his competitors in the state, where he placed second behind John McCain in 2008.

Not surprisingly, social conservatives have been key to Santorum’s surge.

He leads Romney 37% to 28% among "born-again" Christians. And the candidates are tied among voters who described themselves as conservatives, as “blue-collar” voters and as supporters of the tea party movement, according to a Time analysis of the poll results.

Romney, however, enjoys substantial leads among voters who make less than $50,000/year, “white-collar Republicans, college graduates and voters who are not tea party supporters.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Jennifer Jacobs: Iowa Poll, main story: Obama trails trio from GOP

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/02/19/iowa-poll-main-story-obama-trails-trio-from-gop/

1:00 PM, Feb 19, 2012 | by Jennifer Jacobs

Three of the four Republican candidates would beat President Barack Obama in Iowa if the general election were held today, signaling that a state where the Democrat found first love four years ago is now a danger zone.

Only Newt Gingrich would lose to Obama, according to a new Iowa Poll of likely voters of all political stripes.

Here’s a news flash: The candidate who does best against Obama in Iowa is Ron Paul, a Republican with crossover appeal with non-Republicans.

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney also win head-to-head match-ups with the Democratic president.

“This is not a secure state for Obama,” said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register.

The president’s job approval is 46 percent in Iowa, just one point above his lowest low of 45 percent in September 2010.

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

The Hawkeye State has been awash in GOP messages, and, perhaps as a consequence, it’s in a Republican mood.

Millions of dollars of attack ads and months of campaign trail harping about Obama did their damage, said Paul Begala, a Washington, D.C.-based Democratic strategist and political commentator for CNN.

“More than any other early state, the discussion in the Iowa GOP contest centered on attacking the president,” Begala said. “The enduring lesson is that unanswered attacks do real damage.”

Iowa equipped Obama with training wheels by handing him a win in the first-in-the-nation Democratic caucuses in 2008, then handed him a driver’s license with a 9.7 percentage-point win in the general election.

Obama needs a strong and vigorous counterattack to nail a repeat victory here, said Begala, also a close adviser to Bill Clinton during his 1992 presidential race. Obama will need to be in Iowa — campaign in Iowa, run advertisements in Iowa and organize his get-out-the-vote operation in Iowa, Begala said.

“And I’m sure he’ll do all three,” he said. “These Iowa numbers are counter to the national trend, which suggests President Obama can turn them around.”

Obama’s favorability numbers are rising nationally, while the GOP favorability numbers are going down, Begala noted.

The Iowa Poll was conducted Feb. 12-15, surveying 800 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Election questions were asked of 611 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

Even as the national economy shores itself, only 30 percent of Iowa adults think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, while 64 percent say things have gotten on the wrong track.

Independent voter Krissy Dewandel, a teacher from Larchwood, said she would vote for any of the Republican candidates, and she especially likes Santorum. She has disdain for Paul, but she would still vote for him against the president.

“Somebody’s got to beat Obama — he sucks,” said Dewandel, 53.

“The debt, the stupid health care plan, the economy. There isn’t anything right.”

It also irritates Dewandel that Obama rejected a permit for a controversial oil pipeline from Canada to U.S. refineries.

“If they could get gas prices down to a reasonable level — I don’t have money to spend on other stuff because I’m plunking $50 into my car every time I turn around,” she said. “And the pipeline would provide jobs.”

Perceptions about the economy will be key to Obama’s fate, and if gas prices keep rising, he could be in real trouble, political analysts said.

Just 38 percent of Iowans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Kim Geiger: Poll: Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/17/news/la-pn-poll-scott-brown-leads-elizabeth-warren-in-massachusetts-20120217

February 17, 2012|By Kim Geiger

Reporting from Washington — Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, whose upset victory in early 2010 marked the moment when many started to take the tea party movement seriously, leads his likely 2012 Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by 9 percentage points, according to a new survey of voters.

Brown has 49% support compared with Warren’s 40%, according to a Suffolk University poll released Thursday.

Warren, whose reputation as a consumer advocate has made her the darling of progressive activists, holds a commanding lead over her Democratic challengers for the party’s nomination, which will be decided in the primary election Sept. 6.

But she has been unable to win the support of independents, who make up more than half of Massachusetts’ voters. Sixty percent of independents support Brown while 28% support Warren.

“Scott Brown’s popularity and appeal are overpowering the efforts of Elizabeth Warren, who struggles to introduce herself to the larger pool of Massachusetts voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Warren’s support does not have traction among independents.”

Nearly two-thirds of independents also believe there is a benefit to having one Democratic and one Republican senator representing Massachusetts. As a whole, 60% of general election voters agreed that split party representation was beneficial.

Sen. John F. Kerry, a Democrat, is the senior senator from the state. Brown won the seat occupied for nearly half a century by the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, a Democrat.

Brown is also well-liked by voters, with 52% giving him a favorable rating compared with 28% unfavorable. Warren’s favorability is considerably lower -- 35% -- but like Brown, just 28% view her unfavorably.

The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 11-15 using live telephone interviews.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Joshua Miller: Massachusetts: Scott Brown Up in New Senate Poll

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-brown-up-in-new-senate-poll/

By Joshua Miller
Posted at 9:25 a.m. on Feb. 17

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) led presumptive Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren by 9 points in a new poll of registered voters. Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Brown, while 40 percent said they would vote for Warren. Nine percent were undecided.

Among independents, a voting bloc likely to decide the tossup contest, Brown led Warren 60 percent to 28 percent.

Fifty-two percent of those polled had a favorable opinion of Brown while 28 percent had an unfavorable impression of him; 17 percent had heard of him but were undecided. Thirty-five percent of those polled had a favorable view of Warren, while 28 percent had an unfavorable impression of her; 24 percent had heard of her but were undecided.

The Suffolk University/7 News poll was conducted Feb. 11-15 using live telephone interviews to landlines and cellphones. The poll surveyed 600 Bay State registered voters. The margin of error was 4 points.

A poll earlier this week that had the race essentially tied was of likely voters, while this poll was of the broader universe of registered voters. While the earlier survey polled the Senate ballot test after asking about the favorability of various public figures, this poll had the favorability questions as well as a series of other questions before asking for whom respondents would vote for if the election were held today.

Joshua Miller: Massachusetts: Poll Has Senate Race Essentially Tied

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-poll-has-senate-race-essentially-tied/

By Joshua Miller Posted at 2:04 p.m. on Feb. 14

A new poll found Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) and presumptive Democratic nominee Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren essentially tied in the tossup Senate race.

Warren led Brown by 3 points in a horse-race matchup, 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error. Eleven percent of those polled didn’t know for whom they would vote.

Both candidates are well-known in the state. Fifty percent of those polled had a favorable view of Brown while 29 percent had an unfavorable impression of him; 15 percent had heard of him but were undecided. Thirty-nine percent of those polled had a favorable view of Warren, while 29 percent had an unfavorable impression of her; 15 percent had heard of her but were undecided.

Warren, who grew up in Oklahoma, is seen by only 13 percent of those surveyed as having “deep roots here in Massachusetts.” Brown gets 39 percent on that question.

But 34 percent thought Warren “seems to be gaining momentum lately for the November election,” while only 24 percent felt that way about Brown.

The WBUR poll, conducted by MassINC Polling Group, surveyed 503 likely voters by land line and cellphone and had a margin of error of 4.4 points. It was conducted Feb. 6-9.

Alex Roarty: Polls Suggest Contraception Divides Voters

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/polls-suggest-contraception-divides-voters-20120214

By Alex Roarty

Updated: February 14, 2012 | 6:29 p.m.
February 14, 2012 | 6:11 p.m.

Two new polls released on Tuesday indicate the contraception-coverage controversy currently roiling the White House might not be as politically damaging as critics have claimed.

The Obama administration’s decision to make all insurers provide birth control free of charge to patients drew a firestorm of criticism, spearheaded by the Catholic Church and Republican leaders who said it interfered with religious objections to contraception. The issue has become a centerpiece of the GOP presidential campaign.

By Friday, Obama announced that insurance companies -- not the religious groups themselves -- would cover the cost of contraception. It did little to quell criticism, but the White House said it was not meant to do so.

And it appears the issue isn’t a clear political loser for Obama: A poll from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life reports that the issue closely divides the American public. Of Americans who have heard of the controversy, 44 percent said the religious groups should be required to cover contraception. Forty-eight percent of Americans said religious employers should be exempted from providing birth control as part of their health insurance coverage for workers.

Roughly six in 10 Americans have heard about the exemption, the poll found.

Among Catholics, the numbers are far worse for Obama: 55 percent say an exemption should be granted, compared to 39 percent who don’t.

But even if they disagree with the president, they have yet to let it affect their overall view of him. A Gallup poll also released on Tuesday showed the president’s standing among Catholics last week stood at 46 percent, just a three-point drop from the previous week. That was nearly the same level of support Obama enjoyed among non-Catholics, which stood at 47 percent.

The contraception mandate is a sensitive issue for Democrats because Catholics are typically a swing vote in general elections. The disgruntlement of several high-profile Obama allies, including Sen.Robert Casey of Pennsylvania and former DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, who is running for Senate in Virginia, proved Obama’s original decision had taken a toll on the community.

But Tuesday’s polls cast doubt on whether the issue will be an effective political wedge for Republicans in the fall.

The Pew poll surveyed 1,501 adults from Feb. 8 through Feb. 12 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. It sampled 337 Catholics with a sample error of 6.5 percentage points.

Gallup surveyed 775 Catholics from Feb. 6 through Feb. 12, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.