Jennifer Jacobs: GOP strategist in Iowa: Media will ‘stomp over there and eat Rick Santorum’

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2012/01/01/gop-strategist-in-iowa-media-will-stomp-over-there-and-eat-rick-santorum/

JENNIFER JACOBS

1:25 PM, Jan 1, 2012

The rapidly-rising Rick Santorum, to date largely ignored by rivals and reporters, will face new scrutiny, a national GOP strategist predicted this morning in Iowa. And it has already started.

“The media works like Jurassic Park dinosaurs – 30 feet tall, huge teeth, not always the biggest brain, and it follows movement,” strategist Mike Murphy said on “Meet the Press” Sunday morning, which aired the Iowa Public Television studios in Johnston.

Santorum is moving, so the press will “stomp over there and eat Rick Santorum.”

The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll shows that likely GOP caucusgoers are suddenly lining up behind the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania. He earned 10 percent support on Tuesday, the first night of polling, but galloped to 22 percent on Friday, the final day.

The caucuses, the first-in-the-nation vote in the GOP presidential nominating process, are just two days away.

Earlier in the show, moderator David Gregory asked Santorum if anything less than a win in Iowa won’t measure up to expectations.

“That’s really pretty funny actually,” Santorum said. “Ten days ago, I was at 5 percent and every question I got was, why don’t you pack it up, why don’t you endorse another candidate and now 10 days later now you’re saying, ‘Oh, you’ve got to win!”

Asked to defend his endorsement of Mitt Romney in 2008 as “the clear conservative candidate,” Santorum said: “What changed was who he’s running against.”

Romney was a better candidate “relative to John McCain,” he said.

And Santorum was asked about his change of mind on abortion. In 2006, he said he supported exceptions in the cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother. Now he says he opposes all abortions. Was that a flip-flop?

“Today I would support laws that would provide for those exceptions but I’m not for them,” Santorum answered.

Murphy, in a separate segment, predicted Santorum will be “the happiest guy in the world I think Tuesday night.”

“Wednesday he’s got to stand on his head, drink from a firehose without drowning and learn Chinese in one week to roll this out nationally. Not impossible, going to be hard.”

Romney, the poll frontrunner, would love to beat Santorum in Iowa Tuesday, but “there’s no way Romney comes out of here a loser if he’s in the top two,” Murphy said.

Time magazine’s Mark Halperin predicted that the caucuses will either be great for Romney or really good for Romney.

“They would love to leave here in the top three in whatever order, being (Ron) Paul, Santorum and Romney because they believe they will never lose in the long run or maybe even the medium run to Santorum or Paul.

“(Newt) Gingrich and (Rick) Perry represent bigger threats for them. The worse case for Romney is if one of those guys surges in the last few days. No indication that will happen, but they’re out there working hard,” Halperin said.

Every time a GOP rival has become a poll-topping threat to Romney, “his well very skilled opposition research team has killed the person whose challenged him,” Halperin said. “They killed Rick Perry. They killed Newt Gingrich. They haven’t lifted a finger to kill Rick Santorum.”

But if Santorum emerges strong from Iowa, the Romney team will tactically kill Santorum with a thick opposition research file, Halperin said.

Kim Geiger: Iowa poll: Santorum surges as Gingrich fades, Romney leads

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/30/news/la-pn-new-poll-santorum-surges-as-gingrich-fades-romney-leads-20111230

While Mitt Romney and Ron Paul lead the pack among GOP candidates favored by likely Iowa caucus-goers, Rick Santorum’s surge continues, according to a new NBC/Marist poll released Friday.

The poll, which was conducted Dec. 27-28, also shows "tea party" supporters becoming more divided as the Jan. 3 caucus nears.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 23% support from likely caucus-goers, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul, with 21%.

Next is former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who has surged to 15%, up considerably from just 5% in late November, the last time the poll was taken. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has also seen a bump in support, though not as drastic as Santorum’s. Perry went from 9% in late-November to 14% in this latest poll.

The poll is bad news for former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who was atop the GOP field with 26% support last month. He placed fifth in this latest poll, with 13% support. Worse, 35% now say he would be unacceptable as the GOP nominee, compared with 16% last month. And 6% identify him as the “true conservative” in the race.

About half of likely Iowa caucus-goers identify as tea party supporters, and Gingrich’s lead among these voters has also dissolved. Tea party support now appears to be splintered between a number of candidates, with Santorum favored by 20%, followed by Romney and Paul with 17%, Gingrich with 16%, Perry with 15% and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann with 10%.

The results of the NBC/Marist poll mirror the findings of a CNN-Time poll that was released earlier this week. Their methodologies were slightly different: Unlike the CNN-Time poll, NBC/Marist contacted some respondents by cell phone and the likely voter model included independents and some Democrats.

The CNN-Time poll found, among likely voters in Iowa, 25% support for Romney, 22% for Paul, 16% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, 11% for Perry, 9% for Bachmann and 1% for former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is not campaigning in Iowa.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Julie Hirschfeld Davis: Gingrich Tamps Down Expectations to Win Iowa as Polls Show Slump

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-30/gingrich-tamps-down-expectations-to-win-iowa-as-polls-show-slump.html

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Lisa Lerer

(For more on the 2012 election, see ELECT.)

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich is seeking to reduce expectations that he will win the Iowa caucuses as his momentum stalls in national polls.

The former speaker yesterday also sharpened his criticism of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to blunt a barrage of negative ads Romney’s backers have unleashed against him.

“I never said I’d come in first in Iowa,” Gingrich told reporters at a rally in Virginia that drew only a couple of dozen people to a Richmond-area hotel ballroom. “There was a period when I was the front-runner, but frankly, if you get $7 million or $9 million of ads -- most of them false -- the sheer weight of negativity has a real impact.”

The two front-runners are keeping up their campaigning today, underscoring the competitiveness of the race even as the pace began to ease for the Christmas holiday weekend.

Romney will wrap up a four-day bus tour in New Hampshire, with plans to greet voters in pizza shops, Mexican restaurants, a toy store and diners. Gingrich will address Republicans in Columbia, South Carolina, where he will participate in a Christmas lunch. Next week, he heads back to Iowa to kick off an eight-day, 44 city bus tour that will take him through the final stretch of campaigning before the Jan. 3 primary.

Paul as Winner

Gingrich said he could imagine Texas Representative Ron Paul winning Iowa, or “a number of other scenarios,” adding, “It’s going to be a really interesting two weeks.”

Earlier, Gingrich downplayed the significance of an Iowa loss during an appearance before more than 200 Republicans at a breakfast in Short Pump, Virginia. Finishing in the top three or four in the Jan. 3 caucuses there, placing in the top two in New Hampshire on Jan. 10 and winning contests in South Carolina and Florida later that month would still position him to be the Republican nominee, he said.

“From then on, I think it becomes a fairly easy race,” Gingrich said.

As Gingrich worked to manage expectations, Romney received a boost when he picked up the informal endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush.

“Romney is the best choice for us,” Bush said in comments published by the Houston Chronicle yesterday.

Supporting Romney

As Romney campaigned in New Hampshire, the former president told reporters that he supported Romney because of his “stability, experience, principles. He’s a fine person,” he said. “I just think he’s mature and reasonable -- not a bomb- thrower.”

Romney has rolled out high-profile endorsements in recent weeks, including from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and 1996 Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole.

Some Republicans have raised concerns that Gingrich would be a weak general election nominee, citing his propensity for embroiling his party in controversy.

Bush, the father of former President George W. Bush, recounted how Gingrich broke ranks with his party at the last minute during negotiations over a bipartisan 1990 budget agreement. The intra-party dispute weakened Bush as he entered the 1992 re-election campaign, which he lost to President Bill Clinton.

“I’m not his biggest advocate,” the elder Bush said of Gingrich, the Houston Chronicle reported.

Romney Criticism

Stumping in Virginia as he mounted a late push to gather the 10,000 signatures needed to get on the ballot for the state’s March 6 primary, Gingrich portrayed Romney as insufficiently conservative to win the backing of the state’s Republicans.

“When you get down to a choice between a Massachusetts moderate and a southern conservative in Virginia, you have a pretty good chance in the primary of winning,” said Gingrich, who was born in Pennsylvania, represented Georgia in the U.S. House and resides in McLean, Virginia.

Polls have shown Gingrich’s late-year surge flagging less than two weeks before voting begins with the Iowa caucuses. A Dec. 19 CNN national poll found Romney and Gingrich tied with 28 percent support.

Gingrich Confidence

Gingrich has continued to project confidence on the campaign trail. On Dec. 1, he declared he would be the Republican nominee and on Dec. 12 in New Hampshire, he said he was “by a big margin, the front-runner.”

Almost every national public opinion poll conducted during the first week of December showed Gingrich leading the Republican pack with a double-digit margin over Romney.

Gingrich’s advantage in Iowa has diminished or vanished, according to surveys in the state. While he held a double-digit lead over Paul and Romney in a CBS-New York Times poll conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 5, he ranked second behind Paul in an Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll taken Dec. 8-18.

Gingrich has been bombarded by ads in Iowa from Romney’s backers and Paul’s campaign criticizing his record and character.

The pro-Romney Restore Our Future political committee has spent more than $2.5 million on ads and direct mail against Gingrich, Federal Election Commission records show. In its latest television commercial, the group says Gingrich has “too much baggage.”

Consulting Fees

It cited the $1.6 million in consulting fees he got from government-sponsored mortgage giant Freddie Mac, his 1997 ethics reprimand by the U.S. House and charges, which Gingrich dismissed as false, that he backed using federal funds for abortions.

Gingrich has called on Romney to stop the ads and challenged him yesterday to explain them in a one-on-one debate. Romney rejected the challenge today in an interview in New Hampshire with the Associated Press.

“There’s no question it has an impact, so we have to now overcome that impact,” Gingrich said today of the commercials.

--Editors: Jim Rubin, Jeanne Cummings.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at jdavis159@bloomberg.net; Lisa Lerer in Washington at llerer@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

Jennifer Jacobs: Romney and Santorum rise, Gingrich falls in new CNN poll in Iowa

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/28/romney-and-santorum-rise-gingrich-falls-in-new-cnn-poll-in-iowa/

Jennifer Jacobs, The Des Moines Register

A new poll of likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa shows Mitt Romney in the lead, with Ron Paul three points behind and Rick Santorum in third place.

Romney is at 25 percent in the CNN/TIME/ORC Iowa poll, followed by Paul 22 percent, Santorum 16 percent, Newt Gingrich 14 percent, Rick Perry 11 percent, Michele Bachmann 9 percent, and Jon Huntsman 1 percent.

The survey was conducted by telephone with 452 likely Republican caucus participants in Iowa by ORC International on Dec. 21-24.

Sampling error for Iowa is +/-4.5 percentage points.

Asked if they might change their mind, 43 percent of respondents said yes.

Another poll is coming soon: The Des Moines Register’s final Iowa Poll before the Jan. 3 caucuses will be published online at 7 p.m. Saturday.

Gingrich was in the lead with 25 percent in the Register’s last Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 27-30.

Paul was at 18 percent, Romney 16 percent, Herman Cain and Bachmann 8 percent, Perry and Santorum 6 percent and Huntsman 2 percent.

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: Economy still number 1 worry

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/23/cnn-poll-economy-still-number-1-priority/

Posted by

CNN Political Unit

(CNN) -The economy is the top concern for Americans, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll released Friday, and half name unemployment as the most important issue related to the economy.

With just three in ten saying things are going well in the country today and 70% saying they are going badly, economic issues are still the main priority for the country this holiday season.

Fifty-seven percent of the nation says the economy is the most important issue facing the country now, with the deficit listed a distant second at 16%.

When asked to name the country's biggest economic problem, 51% of Americans chose unemployment, and 27% named the deficit as their top economic concern, placing it second, as well.

But as heated debate over a payroll tax cut extensions take center stage in a congressional standoff, the poll indicates only seven percent of Americans list taxes as the most important economic problem in the country.

The CNN poll was conducted by telephone by ORC International from Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, among 1,015 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: Americans agree on bringing troops home from Iraq

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/21/cnn-poll-americans-agree-on-bringing-troops-home-from-iraq/

Posted by

CNN Political Unit

(CNN) – Most Americans agree with the decision to end the war in Iraq, according to a CNN/ORC International poll released Wednesday. Almost eight in ten said they support removal of combat troops from that country by the end of this year.

And although 96% are proud of U.S. troops who served in Iraq, just one in three consider the war a victory and more than half call it a stalemate.

Full results

President Obama announced the full withdrawal of troops from Iraq by the year's end in October. Now, two-thirds say they oppose the war and more think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to Iraq in the first place 53% to 46% over those who do not think it was a mistake.

Americans are similarly divided over whether they agree with then-Sen. Barack Obama's opinion that it was a "dumb" decision to send troops to Iraq in 2003 - 51% say it was dumb and 45% say it was smart.

More than half think the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, but about half say U.S. involvement in the war has had a positive effect on life in Iraq.

When it comes to the U.S., half the nation believes the Iraq war had a negative effect on life here and seven out of 10 say the money spent on the war is one reason for the economic problems facing the country today.

"After the Vietnam war, commentators noted a wariness among the U.S. public to support the use of military force, dubbing it the 'Vietnam syndrome,'" said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Roughly half the public believed that war was an outdated way of settling international conflicts even into the 1980s, but only 32% of Americans feel that way today, with 66% saying that war is sometimes necessary - a minority view after Vietnam. At the same time, seven in ten believe that U.S. military force should only be used as a last resort, and that may be the more lasting impact on public opinion of the war in Iraq."

Almost four in ten American say the U.S. only accomplished some of its goals in Iraq, but almost eight in ten say we could not achieve any more no matter how long troops remained in that country.

The CNN poll was conducted by telephone by ORC International from Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, among 1,015 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

- CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Alex Roarty: Gingrich Falling? It's An Old Story This Race

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2011/12/gingrich-falling-its-an-old-st.php?mrefid=site_search

By Alex Roarty

Is Newt Gingrich losing his place at the head of the GOP presidential field? The fate suffered by previous Republican front-runners suggests his support might be about to fall off a cliff.

Polling data assembled by my colleague Scott Bland shows a similar timeline for the candidates who momentarily claimed the race's front-runner's mantle: Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Georgia businessman Herman Cain (and to a lesser degree, Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann) each rocketed past their opponents, led for about a month, and eventually collapsed.

Take Perry. According to polling from CNN/ORC, the governor rose quickly to race-leading 27 percent in late August, just weeks after officially becoming a candidate. He peaked a few weeks later at 30 percent, the poll found, and held at 28 percent in late September, roughly a month after the first CNN/ORC poll found him in first place. But by mid-October, the Texan had slipped to 13 percent.

Cain's campaign followed the same patter pattern. As Perry fell, the former pizza magnate reached 25 percent in a mid-October poll from CNN/ORC. A month afterward, battered by accusations from multiple women of sexual misconduct, he fell to 14 percent. Bachmann never rose to the heights of either man, but her time as a favorite of the tea party (the voters who have propelled both Perry and Cain) also lasted for roughly one month.

So, when did the former speaker of the House reach the top of the Republican race? About a month ago, when he reached 24 percent in a CNN/ORC poll conducted from Nov. 18 to Nov. 20. And there are signs his numbers are now dropping precipitously. Gallup's daily tracking poll reported his support has dropped nearly 10 points in a week, from a high of 37 percent on Dec. 8 to 28 percent this weekend. Over the same time, his lead over his Mitt Romney has shrunk from 14 percentage points to just 4 points now.

If the path of his predecessors is any indication, Gingrich's numbers will continue their rapid descent. Perry's support halved in a matter of weeks, and he now sits in single digits in most national polls. Cain's share of the vote was quickly plummeting to similar territory before he suspended his campaign. Perry, just like Bachmann, was unable to staunch implosion, and has yet to recover from the collapse.

The month-long staying power makes sense: It gives enough opportunity for the news media and opponents to scrutinize the newly christened front-runner for flaws (a process already begun in earnest with Gingrich) and thus far many hardline conservatives have been disappointed after getting a closer look. Many of them, especially Perry, have withered under the harsh glare during debates and on the campaign trail.

Gingrich's candidacy does have several variables that could complicate whether he too falls just as hard. For one, it's not readily apparent which candidate conservative voters could flock to instead. In every other case, when a GOP candidate flopped there was a concurrent rise in one of their rivals. Bachmann was succeeded by Perry, who was supplanted by Cain, who gave way to Gingrich.

Voters could re-examine one of those candidates, or could they look to someone new like former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum or ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. So far, none of those candidates appear to have much momentum, either in the news or in the polls. Texas Rep. Ron Paul could benefit in Iowa - and that would have huge implications for the Republican race - but he has yet to rise very high in national polls.

Despite being hammered over past ideological deviations and receiving $1.6 million to advise Freddie Mac, Gingrich has also yet to stumble as Perry did during the debates. He also hasn't faced accusations nearly as grave as the ones Cain did; his long history with the GOP means many voters were likely familiar with Gingrich's past in a way they weren't for Perry or Cain. And his decline might happen slow enough that he can still hang on to win Iowa, which would re-ignite his candidacy.

If that happens, he'll have walked a path different than other fallen GOP candidates.