Kim Geiger: Cain, Paul, Romney and Gingrich tied in new Iowa poll

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-fourway-tie-20111115,0,1559119.story?track=rss

By Kim GeigerWashington Bureau

November 15, 2011 12:55 p.m.

With just seven weeks to go before Iowa holds the first nominating contest of the GOP presidential primary, voters in the state remain ambivalent about their choices.

According to a new Bloomberg News poll, businessmanHerman Cain leads the pack with 20% support among registered Republican and Republican-leaning voters, followed by Ron Paul at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18% and Newt Gingrich at 17%. The poll, which was taken Nov. 10-12, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the four candidates are in a statistical dead heat.

Sixty percent of respondents said they could be persuaded to support a different candidate as their first choice, another sign that the field is nowhere near settled.

Although social issues have traditionally been very important in the Iowa caucuses, the poll suggests Iowans this year are far more focused on the economy. Seventy-one percent said fiscal issues are more important factors in selecting a candidate to back.

Just 25% said gay marriage was a “critical” issue in evaluating the candidates; 38% said it is “not important.” Similarly, 33% said abortion was a critical issue but 24% said it is not important. Seventy-seven percent said government spending and reducing debt were a critical issue, compared with just 1% who said it was not important.

The poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., the Des Moines firm that was alone in correctly predicting Barack Obama’s upset victory in the state’s Democratic caucuses in 2008.

The poll spells good and bad news for each of the Republican candidates who are vying to take on President Obama in 2012:

Herman Cain’s support in Iowa dropped about 3 percentage points since a Des Moines Register poll taken Oct. 23-26, also by Selzer & Co., found him at 23%. The Bloomberg News poll was taken as four women alleged that Cain had sexually harassed them in the 1990s, but it is unclear how much the allegations may have hurt his standing with voters.

Twenty-nine percent said they believed Cain when he said he never sexually harassed anyone and 37% said they were waiting to make up their minds. Just 14% said they didn't believe him. More than two-thirds -- 69% -- said they would not rule out a candidate who has been accused of sexual harassment.

Also good news for Cain: 45% of respondents said they would “definitely” support him in a general election against Obama.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul has the most solid base of support. Of likely caucus-goers who say they’re decided on who they will back, 32% have chosen Paul, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the poll results.

Paul’s campaign has also made the most contact with voters: 67% said they had heard from his campaign, followed by 61% who report being contacted by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and 47% contacted by Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Like Cain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has also seen his support slide since the last Iowa poll, which had him at 22%. He’s now at 18%.

Even worse, 58% said they would rule out a candidate who has favored a mandate to buy health insurance. And just 7% listed Romney as the candidate who would do the most to halt illegal immigration.

The good news for Romney is that he appears to be picking up new supporters: Just 41% of those who back him said they also went for him in 2008, according to the Bloomberg analysis. Romney lost the Iowa caucuses in 2008 to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, despite spending about $10 million in the state.

Matched up with Obama, 45% said they would definitely support Romney and just 18% said they would probably not.

Newt Gingrich has enjoyed a recent boost in the polls after a sluggish summer that began with the embarrassing departure of more than a dozen key campaign staffers.

But the Bloomberg poll suggests Gingrich’s marital history -- he is on his third marriage and has admitted to having an affair -- may mean trouble for the former House speaker. Respondents were split, 48% to 49%, over whether they would rule out a candidate who has been married three times and had extramarital affairs.

Rick Perry’s disastrous debate performance last week seems not to have affected his already low support in Iowa.

As was the case in late October, Perry has just 7% support.

He seems to score highest with voters on immigration: 16% say he is the candidate who would do the most to end illegal immigration. But his tax proposal to allow people to pay a 20% flat rate has just 14% support, compared with 32% who favor Romney’s proposal to make the George W. Bush-era tax cuts permanent, then work toward overhaul of the system.

Michele Bachmann’s aggressive campaign strategy in Iowa has failed to pay off as she continues to lose support. Bachmann enjoyed 22% support in June, then won the Ames Straw Poll. But by late October, her support had fallen to 8%. She’s now at 5%.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, at 3%, claims to have visited all 99 Iowa counties.

The one bit of good news for former ambassador Jon Huntsman -- and for Romney -- is that 91% said they would not rule out a candidate because he is a Mormon. Huntsman, at 1%, is not aggressively competing in Iowa.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: Three-way battle for GOP nomination

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/11/poll-three-way-battle-for-gop-nomination/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) - Businessman Herman Cain ranks number one in a survey released Friday, with more than half of likely GOP primary voters saying the allegations of sexual harassment against him will not make a difference in how they vote.

In a real-life illustration of the tortoise-and-hare scenario laid out by Newt Gingrich in an interview Tuesday, the former House Speaker caught up with GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney in the CBS News poll. He tied with the former governor of Massachusetts in second.

But sandwiched between the first and second candidate spots are 17% of Republican primary voters who remain undecided about who they'll support for the 2012 GOP nomination for president.

Cain took the top spot in the survey with 18% support followed closely by Romney and Gingrich who net 15% each. The three-point margin between the top three candidates is with the sampling error for the poll, indicating that Cain, Gingrich, and Romney are statistically tied.

And although 61% of likely GOP primary voters say accusations of sexual harassment won't make any difference in their vote, three in 10 say the allegations make them less likely to support his candidacy for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, a number that increases by seven when it comes to women.

But Cain isn't concerned with those numbers. In an interview for the Fred Dicker talk radio show, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza said, "There's good news and bad news in that, the good news is only a minimal number of people have been influenced by the mere allegations... that was to be expected."

"Here's the good news," Cain continued. "I am still right there at the top and I expected Newt Gingrich to continue to move up because he's done a great job at the debates...he's been relentless plus he's got a lot of experience that a lot of people respect."

"The good news is it hasn't destroyed my campaign, it's created a cloud over it in some people's minds, and when people really think about, these are allegations that I faced and categorically denied. I think the reality is going to set in with a lot of people and further down the road, it's not going to be as big a deal as it is."

In fact, Cain's popularity is divided along gender lines and losing among women. The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza has always performed better among women than men, but in late October a CBS poll indicated 28% of women backed Cain, a number that has dropped 13 percentage points in the new survey.

Overall, support for Cain and Romney has declined as Gingrich supporters have slowly increased. Still, seven in 10 state it is too early to say for sure which candidate they will support for
the nomination.

But for his part, Gingrich wasn't overly impressed by his finish in the survey. Following a Veterans Day event in New Hampshire, he told reporters, "I think the real meaning of the poll is when the frontrunner's at 18 and the next two are tied at 15%, it is a wide-open race… I think it'll stay wide open until January."

"What it means is that all this effort to create a two-man race or all this effort that Romney is the inevitable nominee, nobody is far enough ahead to mean anything," Gingrich argued.

The CBS poll was conducted by telephone from November 6-10 among 1,029 registered voters and 382 who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The overall sampling error for the poll is plus or minus three percentage points. The sampling error of Republican primary voters is plus or minus five percentage points.

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: Romney takes top spot in 2012 race

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/11/poll-romney-takes-top-spot-in-2012-race/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) – Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney tops a new survey released Friday with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich besting businessman Herman Cain for the second spot, though Cain is close behind.

But only three in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they strongly support their candidate and the percentage of those who say they're undecided on their vote is that same as those who would vote for Cain.

Nearly one-quarter of those surveyed in the McClatchy-Marist Poll say they would back Romney while Gingrich has leapfrogged Cain for second with 19% support. The conservative former radio talk show host is close behind with 17% saying they'd vote for him if the 2012 Republican primary or caucus were held in their state today. But 17% of those polled say they remain undecided about the race for the GOP presidential nomination.

The slim margin separating those four choices falls within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, indicating the top three candidates are tied.

Amid accusations of sexual harassment, Cain still is among the top three candidates in the poll taken entirely after the news of the allegations broke. And almost seven in 10 Republicans said they didn't want Cain to drop out of the race, although 34% believe he did something unethical, though not illegal.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul took fourth place at 10%, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 8% and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5% in sixth place. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum were tied with 1% support.

Although 30% said they strongly support their candidate, a number unchanged since September, almost four in 10 said they were "somewhat" supportive and 31% said they could still change their mind.

And loyalty varies among the top three: Roughly four in 10 Gingrich supporters were firmly committed to their choice, but 31% of Cain backers said the same. Thirty percent of Romney supporters said they're firmly committed as well.

The McClatchy-Marist Poll was conducted by telephone among 1,072 adults including 827 registered voters and 347 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents combined. It has an overall sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: More than half of GOP primary voters not concerned about Cain allegations

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/07/poll-more-than-half-of-gop-primary-voters-not-concerned-about-cain-allegations/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) – A new poll shows more than half of Republican primary voters say allegations of sexual harassment against GOP presidential contender and businessman Herman Cain will not affect how they vote. But Cain's unfavorable rating across the country has almost doubled.

According to the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, 54% of Republican primary voters said they were not concerned about voting for Cain because of accusations by three women of sexual harassment against him. The poll was taken before a fourth woman claimed Monday that Cain groped her when she visited him for what she thought was a conversation about a job.

Support for Cain's candidacy has risen in recent weeks as he and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney joust for the top spot in national surveys, but Cain's favorability has taken a hit.

One month ago 24% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the conservative radio talk show host and 18% had an unfavorable opinion. In the survey released Monday, Cain's unfavorable rating has risen to more than one-third for a total increase of 17 percentage points.

But only 13% of GOP primary voters said they were either a great deal or quite a bit concerned about voting for Cain because of the allegations of sexual harassment. Fifteen percent said they were "just a little" concerned.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted by telephone among 1,000 adults from Nov. 2-5. It has an overall sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The sampling error among GOP primary voters is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points.

On Monday Sharon Bialek, a fourth accuser, alleged that Cain sexually assaulted her in 1997. Bialek claimed the incident took place after she sought Cain's assistance in finding a job when Cain was serving as head of the National Restaurant Association.

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll of Polls: President's approval rating remains in the mid-forties

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/07/cnn-poll-of-polls-presidents-approval-rating-remains-in-the-mid-forties/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

Washington (CNN) – Sunday began the one-year countdown to the 2012 presidential election when President Obama and a yet-to-be-determined GOP candidate will face off for the White House. A CNN Poll of Polls released Monday reveals the president's approval rating is still under 50%.

According to the CNN Poll of Polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys, 45 percent of Americans approve of how the president is handling his job and 51% disapprove.

"Approval ratings are a useful measure of an incumbent's chances of re-election, but they are not meant to be a prediction of the vote in the next election," notes CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Obama's case, for example, polls indicate that roughly one in three Americans who disapprove of him feel that way because he has not been liberal enough. Those people may not vote for Obama by staying at home on election day or voting for a third-party candidate, but they are probably not going to vote Republican."

The CNN Poll of Polls of the presidential approval rating one year out from the election is an average of three national polls released in November: Gallup daily tracking poll (November 3-5); ABC/Washington Post (October 31-November 3); and Reuters/Ipsos (October 31-Nov 3). The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

The president's approval rating appears to be a reflection of the slow-to-recover economy and repeated standoffs with Congress, including the Republican-led House of Representatives, have hurt the Obama presidency.

Unemployment numbers have remained above the 8% figure projected by the White House during the push for a first economic stimulus, though the October 2011 jobs report reflected that unemployment has ticked down to 9%.

Although Obama can add the capture and death of Osama bin Laden, strikes on significant al Qaeda leaders, and troop withdrawals from Iraq to his national security resume, a stymied economy and threats of a double-dip recession remain on voters' minds.

The president hit the road over the past two months to sell his American Jobs Act to the public, a measure designed to boost infrastructure and promote job growth. The bill failed to pass in the U.S. Senate has since been broken into pieces in an attempt to revive measures of the president's proposal. Obama has railed against a do-nothing Congress while his opponents balk at the bill they describe as a second stimulus.

Jackie Kucinich: Lawyer: 'Series of inappropriate behaviors' by Cain

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/11/herman-cain-sex-harassment-poll-/1?csp=34news

By Catalina Camia and Jackie Kucinich

USA TODAY

Joel Bennett, a lawyer for one of Herman Cain's accusers, says there was a "series of inappropriate behaviors and unwanted advances" by Cain that led his client to file a sexual harassment claim.

Bennett issued a statement on behalf of his client, who does not wish to be identified or speak publicly.

Cain, who is leading polls for the GOP presidential nomination, has repeatedly said he was "falsely accused" of sexual harassment when he led the National Restaurant Association from 1996-1999.

BLOG: Bennett statement

In an impromptu news conference, Bennett told reporters the incidents occurred over "a month or two" but declined to say what specifically took place. He said "it qualified as sexual harassment in our opinion."

"Beyond what's in this statement she has decided not to relive the specifics of the incidents so I cannot give any further details," said. "She has made a decision that she does not want to do that."

Asked about the other two women referred to this week in news stories about Cain's alleged behavior, Bennett said: "Where there's smoke, there's fire ... more likely than not, there was some sexual harassment activity."

Bennett's statement and a separate news release from the trade group capped a remarkable week for Cain, a former CEO of Godfather's Pizza who has surged to the top of the GOP field.Politico reported on Oct. 30 that two women alleged"sexually inappropriate behavior" while working at the trade group.

The National Restaurant Association confirmed that a formal complaint was filed in July 1999. The association and Bennett's client entered into an agreement to resolve the matter "without an admission of liability," the statement says.

Cain is not a party to the agreement, which included a "monetary settlement" that Bennett did not specify. Politicoreported on Thursday the woman received $45,000.

The restaurant association said it was willing to waive the terms of its confidentiality agreement so Cain's accuser could speak publicly, beyond the statement issued by Bennett.

Bennett said his client now works for the federal government, "where she is extremely happy serving the American people to the best of her ability."

Earlier on Friday, Cain went back to campaigning and promoting his 9-9-9 tax. He alluded only briefly to the scandal, telling an Americans for Prosperity conference that he "attracted a little bit of attention" since Politico's original story about the sexual harassment allegations.

The allegations of misconduct don't seem to be making an impact with GOP voters.

Seven in 10 Republicans in a new ABC News/Washington Post survey say the allegations don't matter when it comes to picking a presidential candidate. A majority of GOP and GOP-leaning voters, or 55%, say the allegations are not a "serious matter."

But the poll, taken Oct. 31-Nov. 3, shows some challenges for Cain. Among the 39% who say the allegations are serious, half say it makes them less likely to support the businessman for president.

"If views of the seriousness of the issue were to increase, Cain's support could be at risk," ABC polling director Gary Langer writes in a memo accompanying the survey.

At his Washington appearance, Cain did allude to a New York Times story about his campaign's ties to Americans for Prosperity and its billionaire benefactors.

Cain defended his relationship with Charles and David Koch, calling himself their "brother from another mother and proud of it."

In other developments, Cain's wife reportedly will not do an interview tonight with Fox News. Gloria Cain has "apparently had a change of heart," in the words of The New York Times.

During an appearance on Sean Hannity's radio show, Herman Cain said Thursday that his wife is "200% supportive of me" both as a candidate and as her husband.

Rebecca Stewart: Obama and Romney all tied up in influential states

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/04/poll-obama-and-romney-all-tied-up-in-influential-states/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) - If the presidential election were held today, a new poll reveals that voters would be divided between incumbent President Barack Obama and current GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney.

According to a Gallup poll released Friday, Romney edges out former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry as the more competitive candidate in a hypothetical matchup with President Obama.

In 12 swing states including Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, Florida, where the fourth presidential nominating contest is held, and Nevada, which will host the fifth contest when its caucus takes place on Feb. 4, Obama trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by one percentage point, well within the poll's margin of error. Swing state voters are split between the former governor making his second bid for the GOP presidential nomination and the incumbent president 47-46%.

Registered voters nationwide are divided evenly in the poll with 47% saying they would select President Obama and 47% saying they would choose Romney if the presidential election were held today. They survey includes those who are undecided but lean toward one candidate or the other.

Romney fared slightly better than Perry or Cain among voters both nationwide and in swing states.

Across the country, Obama holds a 48-46% margin over Cain, a margin that increases by one percentage point in swing states, where he takes 48% support to Cain's 45%. The survey was conducted before allegations of sexual harassment by Cain during his time at the National Restaurant Association emerged.

Among the three GOP contenders, the longest running governor of Texas is the least competitive when matched with President Obama. The biggest margin where the president is ahead is among swing states where he has an edge of five percentage points, still within the sampling error for the poll.

Forty-nine percent of voters across the country would choose Obama over Perry, who would receive 45% support if the general election were held today and Perry were the nominee. In swing states, 49 percent picked Obama and 44 percent chose Perry. The president's margin's over both Cain and Perry are also within the survey's sampling error.

The poll results show the president performing better than Gallup's hypothetical matchup of Obama against an unnamed Republican candidate in a presidential contest-in that measure the president has consistently polled behind the generic Republican.

And the GOP may benefit from an enthusiasm gap in next year's election-the survey reflects that more than half of Republican voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting compared with less than half of Democrats, both nationwide and among included swing states.

The Gallup poll was conducted by telephone from Oct. 20-27 among 1,334 registered voters in twelve selected states. It has a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Gallup's national survey was conducted among 1,169 registered voters during the same dates and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.