Devin Dwyer: Strong Obama Support Only Among Young Voters, Says Pew Report

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/strong-obama-support-only-among-young-voters-says-pew-report/

Voters under 30 – the so-called millennial generation – propelled Barack Obama to victory in 2008, voting Democratic by a historic 34-point margin, which separated it from older generations of voters by a wider gap than ever before.

That preference gap persists, a new Pew Research Center study finds, with younger voters still backing the president by much greater margins than older generations.

But will millenials participate in the next election with a commensurate level of engagement, turning out for Obama in 2012? Pew found their enthusiasm substantially waning: Only 49 percent approve of Obama’s job performance.

Moreover, only 13 percent say they have given a lot of thought to the presidential candidates compared with 28 percent four years ago; and only 17 percent say they are following election news closely, down from 24 percent.

“They are a lot more disappointed with Obama, and their enthusiasm, their interest in voting, their interest in politics is way down,” says Pew associate director Carroll Doherty. “There’s a year to go and a lot can happen, and there’s no opponent for Obama yet, or Democratic primary to get voters engaged. But this enthusiasm gap has got to be worrisome for Democrats, because this was Obama’s strongest age group in 2008.”

Meanwhile, silent generation voters (born between 1925-1945), baby boomers (born between 1946-1964) and the generation Xers who came after the boomers, are all showing higher campaign interest and engagement now than they did in 2008. They’re also much more likely to favor Republican candidates, Pew found.

In Pew’s hypothetical match-up, for example, gen Xers, boomers and silent generation voters all favor Romney over Obama. Only millenials say they’ prefer Obama.

“When the primary season starts to wrap up, look for where the younger voters are at that point, and then where they are over the summer in terms of their own interest and engagement in this election. If you still see them lagging behind 2009, then that’s a very bad sign for Democrats,” Doherty says.

Pew’s findings come from two major national surveys conducted between Sept. 1-15 and Sept. 22-Oct. 4, comprising a combined 4,413 adults. They were supplemented with Census Bureau data. The margin of error for generational groups ranges between 4 and 6.5 percentage points.

Jennifer Jacobs: Poll: Cain, Romney lead in Iowa

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-10-29/iowa-republican-poll-caucuses/50999276/1

By JENNIFER JACOBS, The Des Moines Register

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Former business executives Herman Cain and Mitt Romney lead the Republican field in Iowa in an election cycle in which likely GOP caucusgoers favor business experience over elective experience as a qualification for the presidency.

The other contenders, despite their focus on the Hawkeye State, trail 10 percentage points or more.

The power of Cain's likability has vaulted him to the top of The Des Moines Register's with 23 percent of likely caucusgoers saying he is their first choice. The durable Romney, on part two of his presidential quest, coasts in with 22 percent.

"You always look at these polls like they predict the future, and all they do is measure the noise of the last two weeks," said longtime GOP national campaign strategist Mike Murphy. But at this moment, "it is a Cain/Romney race."

The survey lays bare some serious vulnerabilities for the steady-as-he-goes Romney, despite months among the leaders of national polls and the plaudits he's won as a debater.

The former Massachusetts governor earns the support of just 10 percent of those who say they definitely plan to vote in the caucuses (Cain is at 27 percent). And Cain dominates Romney among those who identify themselves as very conservative, by more than 3-to-1.

However, Romney is the favorite of women, seniors, first-time caucusgoers and those who call themselves moderates or liberals. He also leads among those whose minds are made up.

Cain, a former executive of burger and pizza chains, leads by at least a 5-point margin among men, the most conservative voters, tea party supporters, born-again Christians and those ages 35 to 54.

Another factor favoring Cain over Romney: More than half of likely caucusgoers think a representative of the core conservative base can win the White House in 2012. Only a third see a need to select a more moderate candidate with appeal to independents.

The race remains highly volatile. At this point, 59 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to support another candidate. Fifteen percent have no first choice right now. Just a quarter who have a first choice say their mind is made up.

The telephone survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 23-26, roughly 10 weeks before the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the nation's presidential nominating process. The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The rest of the field

The only other candidate in double digits is Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, in third place with 12 percent. That's a 5-point increase from the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in June.

In the June poll, Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann topped the field with 23 percent and 22 percent. Cain ranked third at 10 percent. Since then, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has left the race, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry has joined it.

Support for Bachmann has cratered, dropping to 8 percent, as tea partiers and born-again Christians turn elsewhere.

Perry lit up the national polls when he entered the race in August. But if his support ever ignited in Iowa, the fireworks have burned out. He's at 7 percent, tied with Newt Gingrich.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, despite his sweat on the Iowa campaign trail, is lodged in the lower tier at 5 percent.

Romney has campaigned in Iowa just three times this year and skipped the Iowa straw poll in August. Cain has visited only once since the straw poll. The message to candidates seems to be: The less you're here, the more we like you.

One candidate defies that theory: Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who was here for a debate in August and hasn't been seen since. He's at 1 percent.

Choice could change

The race has been a fever chart of mood swings, with conservatives teased by potential candidates from real estate mogul Donald Trump to Alaska's Sarah Palin to New Jersey's Chris Christie. First Bachmann then Perry then Cain have seen surges in support nationally.

The fact that 74 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers currently have no first choice or could be persuaded to switch their first choice demonstrates soft support and a wide-open electorate, said Republican strategist Mary Matalin.

"The dynamic remains Romney versus non-Romney, with Romney still unable to penetrate his ceiling, and the non-Romney vote still showing no consolidation," Matalin said.

Fellow GOP strategist Murphy said it may seem as if people are switching around a lot, but the truth is, they're just not with anybody yet.

"People are kind of window shopping," Murphy said. "It feels to us in the media this campaign has been going on for a year, but in voter world, this is the second inning at best."

For now, the smoking-hot Cain has punched into front-runner status in Iowa -- despite alarming some conservatives with his comments four days before polling began implying that abortion is a choice best left to families. He has since insisted he opposes abortion, no exceptions.

"I just like him," explained Lynn Borland, 45, a medical transcriptionist from Independence. "He seems to make sense."

Born-again Christians make up 37 percent of the poll. By more than 2-to-1, they go to Cain over Bachmann. Similarly, of the 45 percent of respondents who consider themselves very conservative on social issues, Cain leads the field with 24 percent, again by a 2-to-1 margin over Bachmann.

It was in an Iowa Poll published in early December 2007 that former Baptist minister and eventual Iowa caucuses winner Mike Huckabee overtook Romney. As that point nears this election cycle, neither Cain nor Romney has a strong lead. A sign of just how unsettled the choices are: Thirty percent of Cain backers name Romney as their next-best choice, and vice versa for Romney backers.

Business skill prized

In an economy with the national unemployment rate stuck at 9 percent, a resounding 71 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say business experience is more important than having held elective office. Twenty-two percent say time in elective office is more critical.

Cain campaigns as a business turnaround artist, transforming underperforming Burger Kings for Pillsbury and steering Godfather's Pizza away from the brink of bankruptcy. Romney ran two companies, Bain & Co. and Bain Capital. Bain Capital was known for investing in or buying companies, some of which were faltering, then reorganizing them. He cites Staples, Domino's Pizza and Sports Authority as some of his successes.

Among those who say business experience makes the best presidential resume, Cain leads Romney, 29 percent to 22 percent. Among those who think experience in office is more important, it's Romney with 24 percent, and Perry at 16 percent.

"This may be the only highlight for Perry in this poll," pollster J. Ann Selzer said.

Perhaps Romney's biggest problem versus Cain boils down to likability.

Romney is second only to Bachmann as the candidate likely caucusgoers like least. He's most disliked by those who describe themselves as very conservative (30 percent).

More tea party supporters (19 percent) pick Romney as their least liked than any other candidate.

Romney is strongest among those 65 and older, but they're an iffy voting pool this year, less committed to caucus than they've been in the past.

In contrast, only 3 percent name Cain as their least-liked candidate.

Selzer said: "I can't say there's any underlying weakness for him like we see for Romney."

A long way to go

Voters should keep in mind that this poll came before TV advertising in Iowa that could be a factor going forward, Murphy said. The well-financed Perry set a TV blitz in motion in Iowa on Wednesday.

Murphy said he suspects Cain's numbers are soft, and will soon ebb.

While Republican politics watchers have barely sensed a pulse in Cain's Iowa organization until the last week or two, Romney has Iowa teed up, they say. His list of supporters, cemented with holdovers from his intense Iowa effort four years ago, is viewed as stronger than any other candidate's.

If Romney commits to campaigning harder in Iowa, his path won't be easy, Murphy said, but he could earn back-to-back wins here and in New Hampshire that would devastate other campaigns.

Matalin noted that a campaign's organizational edge plays an outsized role in Iowa in getting would-be voters to caucus on a cold January night.

The avalanche of campaigning in Iowa starts now.

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: Cain takes top position, Perry falls to fifth

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/25/poll-cain-takes-top-position-perry-falls-to-fifth/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) - Businessman and conservative radio talk show host Herman Cain came out on top in a CBS/New York Times poll measuring support among likely Republican primary voters that was released Tuesday.

In the first poll since CNN's Western Republican debate, Cain is ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by four percentage points, within the sampling error for the survey.

One quarter of GOP primary voters support Cain, who has surged in national polls recently due in part, perhaps, to his easy-to-understand "9-9-9" economic plan and consistent debate performances. Romney received 21% support.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich netted 10% followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at eight percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has fallen to fifth place after early stumbles in candidate debates. He's also been hemmed in with stinging critiques from rivals on his positions regarding immigration and his support for a mandatory HPV vaccine.

Perry received 6% support in the poll, half the amount he received in early October.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has also fallen out of favor it seems, after winning the critical Iowa straw poll in August. With two percent support, the congresswoman has struggled to stay relevant as public bickering between former and current staffers exploded in New Hampshire.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman tied at one percent.

But with 14% of likely Republican primary-goers undecided and roughly four out of five saying it is too early to say for sure who they back for the nomination, a chunk of potential supporters is still in play.

The poll was conducted among 1,650 adults by telephone including 455 voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The overall sampling error for the survey is plus or minus two percentage points. The sampling error for the subgroup of likely Republican primary voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Kim Geiger: Gallup: Obama's approval rating hits another record low

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-gallup-average-20111021,0,7921877.story

By Kim Geiger

October 21, 2011, 1:48 p.m.

President Obama’s average approval rating sank to a new low of 41% in the 11^th financial quarter of his term, according to a new analysis of Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

That number is down six percentage points from Obama’s 10^th quarter average, and is the lowest 11^th quarter average posted by a sitting president since Jimmy Carter, who lost his reelection bid in 1980. (Carter’s approval average that quarter was 31%.)

Obama’s average approval rating over his entire term is now 50%.

Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones notes that while the 11th quarter was so far Obama's worst, the 12^th- and 13^th- quarter averages will be better indicators of his reelection prospects. Those averages historically “give a strong indication of whether he will win a second term,” Jones wrote in a summary of Gallup’s findings.

Of 262 presidential quarters in which Gallup has calculated average presidential job approval ratings, the 11^th quarter of Obama’s term ranks 220^th.

kim.geiger@latimes.com

Rebecca Stewart: CNN Poll: Number who prefer death penalty on decline

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/12/cnn-poll-number-who-prefer-death-penalty-on-decline/?iref=storysearch

Posted by

CNN Political Unit

(CNN) – When offered a choice between sentencing a murderer to capital punishment or life in prison with no chance of parole, half of all Americans say they prefer a life sentence over the death penalty - the first time that has happened in CNN polling.

Fifty percent would opt for a life sentence; 48% said they would choose the death penalty, revealing a nation divided when it comes to capital punishment.

Full results (pdf)

The remaining two percent had no opinion in the survey released Wednesday.

"That's not to say that Americans want to abolish the death penalty entirely," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But there is a difference between thinking that the government should have the death penalty as an option and actually wanting to see it applied."

Seven years ago, 56% of the nation said they preferred the death penalty, a number that decreased to 53% in 2009 and to 48% now. At the same time the number of Americans who believe that at least one person in the past five years has been executed for a crime that he or she did not commit increased to 72%.

The issue of the death penalty has even found its way onto the 2012 campaign trail, with some media attention given to the controversy surrounding the execution of death row inmate Todd Willingham. Willingham, who maintained his innocence, received the death penalty while GOP contender Rick Perry served as governor of Texas.

In 2005, when a solid majority preferred the death penalty, 59% believed that an innocent person had been executed within the previous five years. The CNN/ORC International survey reveals that figure has risen thirteen points.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International from September 23-25 among 1,010 adults who were questioned by telephone. It has a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.

Rebecca Stewart: Poll: GOP shakeup in South Carolina

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/11/poll-gop-shakeup-in-south-carolina/

Posted by

CNN Associate Producer Rebecca Stewart

(CNN) – Businessman Herman Cain has edged out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the first primary state of the South, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

The conservative radio talk show host received 26% support in the Palmetto State poll, only one percentage point ahead of Romney and within the margin of error for the American Research Group survey, indicating the two are statistically tied.

South Carolina is slated to go fourth in the nation's primary and caucus calendar, preceded by Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

The longest-serving Texas Gov. Rick Perry placed third with 15% support, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8%, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 7%, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5%.

With 12% of likely primary voters undecided in the poll, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum received 1% support and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer did not net enough backing to constitute a percentage.

The results reflect a southern shakeup in standings among the GOP field. Just three months ago Romney placed first followed by former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who has since announced she's out of the race for the 2012 nomination, Bachmann, who's seen her popularity fall following a big win in the Ames straw poll, and Herman Cain in fourth.

When the survey is narrowed to Republican respondents who consider themselves likely primary voters, Cain and Romney are tied at 27% each.

Among tea party supporters, Cain, a favorite in the tea party movement, takes the lead with 35% support, followed by Perry, and with Romney in third. But among those who are not tea party supporters or are undecided about the movement, the top four shifts with Romney in the lead at 33% followed by Cain, Perry, and Paul.

The American Research Group survey was conducted among 600 likely GOP primary voters including Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Respondents were questioned by telephone from October 5-10. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Rebecca Stewart: Polls: Cain stays strong

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/10/poll-cain-stays-strong/

Posted by

CNN Producer Gabriella Schwarz

(CNN) - Continuing his national surge, Herman Cain came in second place among Republican presidential candidates in a new national poll released Monday.

The Washington Post/Bloomberg survey of Republican-leaning voters showed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on top with Cain, the former Godfather's Pizza CEO, in the No. 2 spot, slightly ahead of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Romney received 25% support, followed by Cain with 16%, Perry with 13%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 6% and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with 4%. The remaining candidates received lower figures.

The respondents who lean Republican said Romney, at 22%, would do the most to improve the economy. Cain, who has made the economy the central theme of his campaign, received 20% and Perry received 12%. Meanwhile, the questioners said Bachmann would do the most to hurt the economy. She garnered 14% followed by Paul at 11% and Perry at 9%.

The new poll was released one day before Tuesday's GOP debate in New Hampshire and shortly before Gallup released survey results that showed Cain trailing Romney by just two percentage points. The difference is within the poll's margin of error.

In the Gallup poll Romney received 20% support, followed by Cain at 18%. Perry saw 15% support in the survey with Paul behind him at 8%, Gingrich at 7%, Bachmann at 5%, Santorum at 3% and Huntsman at 2%.

But with 20% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents still undecided, there's more work for GOP candidates when it comes to firming up support.

A Pew Research Center survey released Thursday showed Romney still on top with 22%, but Perry was next in line with 17%, followed by Cain with 13%, Paul with 12%, Gingrich with 8% and Bachmann with 6%.

The Washington Post/Bloomberg News poll questioned 1,000 adults between Oct. 6 and Oct. 9 with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The Gallup poll was conducted from among 1,064 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents by telephone from October 3-7. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Pew poll questioned 876 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters between Sept. 22 and Oct. 4 with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

– CNN's Rebecca Stewart contributed to this report.