http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/08/perry-tops-new-gallup-poll-by-12-points/1?csp=34news
Perry tops new Gallup poll by 12 points
Comments 805 By Jackie Kucinich, USA TODAY Updated 32m ago
Days after launching his campaign, Texas Gov. Rick Perry surged into the lead of the race for the Republican nomination, according to a Gallup poll released today.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry tops the latest Gallup poll. CAPTIONBy Richard Shiro, AP
Perry leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the previous front-runner, by 12 percentage points, 29%-17%. Texas Rep. Ron Paul places third with 13% support from those surveyed, followed by Rep. Michele Bachmann with 10%
Romney maintained a fragile lead in Gallup's polls for months and Perry's ability to surpass him after only one full week of campaigning, at the time of the poll, shows how vulnerable Romney's front-runner status is.
In addition, Perry's entrance into the race has slowed Bachmann's steady rise in the polls despite her straw poll win in Iowa.
The poll did not reflect Perry's rocky transition from Texas governor to presidential candidate.
In his first days on the trail, Perry received criticism from the right and the left after his controversial comments on evolution, climate change and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's handling of the economy.
Businessman Herman Cain received 4% of the vote. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former senator Rick Santorum each received 3%. Former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman received 1% of the vote.
The poll showed there was interest in runs by former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani. Palin has indicated she would make her decision by the end of September, and Giuliani has said he will make his mind up by the end of the summer.
Their addition to the poll does little to change the results.
Of the Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed, 25% said Perry would be their first choice to be the GOP nominee in 2012. Romney received 14% of the vote, while Palin and Paul received 11% each.
Tea Party darling Bachmann finished a distant fifth with 7%, behind Giuliani.
Perry announced his intention to run for president Aug. 13. Before that announcement, Perry received 15% of the vote, behind Romney who had 17%.
Perry fared even better among those asked about their first or second choice. Forty percent of those surveyed said Perry would be either their first or second choice for the Republican nominee. Romney finished next with 26%, followed by Palin at 21% and Bachmann at 20%.
The poll of 1,040 adults was taken August 17-21 and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Saturday, August 20, 2011
ABDON PALLASCH: Emanuel phone poll asks about taxes, Tea Party, Daley and more
http://www.suntimes.com/7147885-417/emanuel-phone-poll-asks-about-taxes-tea-party-daley-and-more.html
Emanuel phone poll asks about taxes, Tea Party, Daley and more
BY ABDON M. PALLASCH Political Reporter/apallasch@suntimes.com August 19, 2011 1:01AM
Mayor Rahm Emanuel presides over the Chicago City Council meeting Wednesday July 6, 2011. | Rich Hein~Sun-Times
Updated: August 19, 2011 7:46AM
A telephone survey of Chicago voters offers the most extensive clues yet about what Mayor Rahm Emanuel might do to close a $636 million budget gap.
Closing libraries; a 15 percent cut to police, fire and emergency management administration; a $2.5 million cut to programs for seniors, low-income housing and domestic violence are all proposals respondents are asked to give their opinions on.
The survey also opens a window into what issues weigh heavily on the mayor’s mind:
“Rahm Emanuel has been a disappointment as mayor so far and is no better than Mayor Daley,” is one of the statements voters are asked to say whether they agree with.
Another asks whether voters support Emanuel’s school board hiking property taxes $150 million or whether they view that as the mayor “going back on his word” not to raise taxes.
Surveying voter opinion of controversial options is a time-honored tradition at City Hall. Mayor Daley used the same firm, Washington, D.C.-based Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, that Emanuel’s political fund, The New Chicago Committee, has used.
Tom Bowen, who manages the mayor’s committee, would not comment on the survey, except to say, “We don’t comment on internal strategies.” No city tax dollars are used in the campaign fund’s polling.
The survey seems more extensive than the ones Greenberg used to do for Daley. It asks voters to give Emanuel a grade of 1-100 on how he has done. It tests some of the slogans he’ll use to sell his policies — even whether voters blame tough budget cuts on “Tea Party politicians in Washington.”
Then it asks voters to grade some of Emanuel’s political rivals; other elected officials and some of Emanuel’s appointees:
◆ Ald. Edward M. Burke (14th), whose police security detail Emanuel has said he will trim.
◆ Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis, who has criticized Emanuel for cutting the 4 percent raises for teachers.
◆ Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle
◆ Police Supt. Garry McCarthy.
◆ “City workers.”
◆ Former Mayor Richard M. Daley
◆ Chicago Schools CEO Jean-Claude Brizard
◆ President Barack Obama
“I don’t think anyone should begrudge Rahm for doing a poll,” said Ken Snyder, principal of Chicago-based Snyder Pickerill Media Group, which conducts similar surveys for other elected officials. “He’s got a big agenda, a lot of big ideas. Surveying the attitude and opinions of citizens is respectful and helps him prioritize his agenda. The primary reason for polling is to find out if the things you’re communicating to voters are resonating.”
The survey asks voters to say whether they would have some concerns, serious concerns or no concerns if Emanuel announces any of these budget cuts when he presents his budget Oct. 15:
◆ “Outsources garbage collection to private firms.”
◆ “Cuts funding for economic development and housing by 10 percent.”
◆ “Cuts subsidies for libraries, reduces hours and potentially leads to some libraries closing.”
◆ “Cuts funding for [administration and management of the] Police Department, Fire Department, and Office of Emergency Management by 15 percent.”
◆ “Eliminates perks that allows police, fire and emergency management personnel to be paid when they’re not working.”
◆ “Cuts funding for seniors, low-income housing and domestic violence programs by $2.5 million.”
◆ “Cuts redundant agencies such as the Board of Local Improvement, which costs $350,000 a year.
◆ “Require 40 hours of work before city workers can earn overtime and cuts overtime from double-time to time-and-a -half.”
◆ “End the ability of aldermen to cut water fees and other fees for businesses and non-profits.”
The survey asks voters whether they would agree with some of these arguments:
◆ “The losers in this budget are seniors, children and people who live in high crime areas.”
◆ “Hard choices need to be made but this budget shares the pain as evenly as possible.”
◆ “This budget doesn’t use gimmicks. It’s not looking for quick fixes.”
◆ “This budget will strain our Police and Fire departments further.
◆ “Cuts are unfortunately needed because ‘Tea Party’ politicians in Washington are cutting state and federal funds.”
The survey asks voters whether they support the Emanuel School team’s “tax to the max” proposal to raise property taxes to support the schools. The survey asks voters whether they agree with these arguments about that tax hike:
◆ “Emanuel is asking too much. He promised to balance the budge without raising taxes and just three months after he said he wasn’t going to raise taxes, he has already gone back on his word.”
◆ “This budget gives big tax breaks to downtown businesses and doesn’t spend $800 million in Tax Increment Financing funds to help schools instead of raising property taxes.”
◆ “This school budget represents a balanced approach that includes $3 in cuts for every $1 in new revenue and would add only $84 in taxes every year for owners of a $250,000 home.”
The survey tests voters opinions on whether they think Gov. Quinn should sign a bill allowing casinos in Chicago and around the state.
The survey asks voters whether they agree with these arguments about Emanuel:
◆ “Emanuel has good judgment.”
◆ “Emanuel represents all the neighborhoods in Chicago”
◆ “Emanuel fights for what’s right”
◆ “Emanuel is an effective manager”
◆ “Emanuel keeps his promises.”
◆ “Emanuel allows corporations [too much say] in City Hall.”
◆ “Emanuel is too ready to raise taxes.”
◆ “Emanuel is out of touch with regular people.”
◆ “Emanuel cares more about downtown than the neighborhoods.”
Daley kept Greenberg on retainer up until the moment he announced his political retirement.
When the 75-year, $1.15 billion deal that privatized Chicago parking meters and the first-round flame-out in the Olympic sweepstakes caused a nosedive in Daley’s popularity, the former mayor knew it before media polls told the same story.
That may well have factored into his decision to call it quits.
Emanuel phone poll asks about taxes, Tea Party, Daley and more
BY ABDON M. PALLASCH Political Reporter/apallasch@suntimes.com August 19, 2011 1:01AM
Mayor Rahm Emanuel presides over the Chicago City Council meeting Wednesday July 6, 2011. | Rich Hein~Sun-Times
Updated: August 19, 2011 7:46AM
A telephone survey of Chicago voters offers the most extensive clues yet about what Mayor Rahm Emanuel might do to close a $636 million budget gap.
Closing libraries; a 15 percent cut to police, fire and emergency management administration; a $2.5 million cut to programs for seniors, low-income housing and domestic violence are all proposals respondents are asked to give their opinions on.
The survey also opens a window into what issues weigh heavily on the mayor’s mind:
“Rahm Emanuel has been a disappointment as mayor so far and is no better than Mayor Daley,” is one of the statements voters are asked to say whether they agree with.
Another asks whether voters support Emanuel’s school board hiking property taxes $150 million or whether they view that as the mayor “going back on his word” not to raise taxes.
Surveying voter opinion of controversial options is a time-honored tradition at City Hall. Mayor Daley used the same firm, Washington, D.C.-based Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, that Emanuel’s political fund, The New Chicago Committee, has used.
Tom Bowen, who manages the mayor’s committee, would not comment on the survey, except to say, “We don’t comment on internal strategies.” No city tax dollars are used in the campaign fund’s polling.
The survey seems more extensive than the ones Greenberg used to do for Daley. It asks voters to give Emanuel a grade of 1-100 on how he has done. It tests some of the slogans he’ll use to sell his policies — even whether voters blame tough budget cuts on “Tea Party politicians in Washington.”
Then it asks voters to grade some of Emanuel’s political rivals; other elected officials and some of Emanuel’s appointees:
◆ Ald. Edward M. Burke (14th), whose police security detail Emanuel has said he will trim.
◆ Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis, who has criticized Emanuel for cutting the 4 percent raises for teachers.
◆ Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle
◆ Police Supt. Garry McCarthy.
◆ “City workers.”
◆ Former Mayor Richard M. Daley
◆ Chicago Schools CEO Jean-Claude Brizard
◆ President Barack Obama
“I don’t think anyone should begrudge Rahm for doing a poll,” said Ken Snyder, principal of Chicago-based Snyder Pickerill Media Group, which conducts similar surveys for other elected officials. “He’s got a big agenda, a lot of big ideas. Surveying the attitude and opinions of citizens is respectful and helps him prioritize his agenda. The primary reason for polling is to find out if the things you’re communicating to voters are resonating.”
The survey asks voters to say whether they would have some concerns, serious concerns or no concerns if Emanuel announces any of these budget cuts when he presents his budget Oct. 15:
◆ “Outsources garbage collection to private firms.”
◆ “Cuts funding for economic development and housing by 10 percent.”
◆ “Cuts subsidies for libraries, reduces hours and potentially leads to some libraries closing.”
◆ “Cuts funding for [administration and management of the] Police Department, Fire Department, and Office of Emergency Management by 15 percent.”
◆ “Eliminates perks that allows police, fire and emergency management personnel to be paid when they’re not working.”
◆ “Cuts funding for seniors, low-income housing and domestic violence programs by $2.5 million.”
◆ “Cuts redundant agencies such as the Board of Local Improvement, which costs $350,000 a year.
◆ “Require 40 hours of work before city workers can earn overtime and cuts overtime from double-time to time-and-a -half.”
◆ “End the ability of aldermen to cut water fees and other fees for businesses and non-profits.”
The survey asks voters whether they would agree with some of these arguments:
◆ “The losers in this budget are seniors, children and people who live in high crime areas.”
◆ “Hard choices need to be made but this budget shares the pain as evenly as possible.”
◆ “This budget doesn’t use gimmicks. It’s not looking for quick fixes.”
◆ “This budget will strain our Police and Fire departments further.
◆ “Cuts are unfortunately needed because ‘Tea Party’ politicians in Washington are cutting state and federal funds.”
The survey asks voters whether they support the Emanuel School team’s “tax to the max” proposal to raise property taxes to support the schools. The survey asks voters whether they agree with these arguments about that tax hike:
◆ “Emanuel is asking too much. He promised to balance the budge without raising taxes and just three months after he said he wasn’t going to raise taxes, he has already gone back on his word.”
◆ “This budget gives big tax breaks to downtown businesses and doesn’t spend $800 million in Tax Increment Financing funds to help schools instead of raising property taxes.”
◆ “This school budget represents a balanced approach that includes $3 in cuts for every $1 in new revenue and would add only $84 in taxes every year for owners of a $250,000 home.”
The survey tests voters opinions on whether they think Gov. Quinn should sign a bill allowing casinos in Chicago and around the state.
The survey asks voters whether they agree with these arguments about Emanuel:
◆ “Emanuel has good judgment.”
◆ “Emanuel represents all the neighborhoods in Chicago”
◆ “Emanuel fights for what’s right”
◆ “Emanuel is an effective manager”
◆ “Emanuel keeps his promises.”
◆ “Emanuel allows corporations [too much say] in City Hall.”
◆ “Emanuel is too ready to raise taxes.”
◆ “Emanuel is out of touch with regular people.”
◆ “Emanuel cares more about downtown than the neighborhoods.”
Daley kept Greenberg on retainer up until the moment he announced his political retirement.
When the 75-year, $1.15 billion deal that privatized Chicago parking meters and the first-round flame-out in the Olympic sweepstakes caused a nosedive in Daley’s popularity, the former mayor knew it before media polls told the same story.
That may well have factored into his decision to call it quits.
Monday, August 15, 2011
WHY AMES (APPARENTLY) DOESN'T MATTER
Pretty sophisticated analysis of the historical role of the Iowa Straw Poll by Charles Franklin on Mark Blumenthal's blog..check out his graph on the site
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles-franklin/why-ames-apparently-doesn_b_926809.html
ankil
Why Ames (Apparently) Doesn't Matter by Charles Franklin
After yesterday's excitement over the Ames straw poll, let's take a look at the history and consequences. With Tim Pawlenty's withdrawal today, it seems Ames does indeed matter, at least for negative consequences, and Michele Bachmann's appearances on Sunday morning shows also hints at the upside for visibility and seriousness.
Yesterday, Nate Silver of the New York Times, presented his analysis of why Ames matters. His approach is to link the Ames straw poll to performance in the Iowa caucuses, and the results show that the two are certainly correlated, whether or not they are causally connected. The results convince Silver that Ames is an important signal about a candidate's likely success in the caucuses.
But the caucus is only the first event of the nomination process and so an alternative approach is to focus on the brass ring: the nomination itself. Is there any evidence that performance in the Ames straw poll has an effect on winning the GOP presidential nomination?
The short answer is "no." And the longer answer is "beware of statistical analysis with very few cases".
The chart above shows the predicted probability of winning the nomination based on national polling in the month before the Ames straw poll and whether or not the candidate won the straw poll. There is a strong and statistically significant effect of national poll standing (which is why the curves rise rapidly to near certainty for those polling well). But the estimated effect for winning Ames is not statistically significant, and in fact is estimated to have a negative effect, if any at all. That is why the black line for winners is below the red line for losers. The best conclusion is "no effect at all."
In the figure, solid dots represent nominees while open circles are those who failed to gain the nomination. Straw poll winners who went on to secure the nomination (solid black dots) are Bush '99 and Dole '95. Straw poll losers (solid red dots) who became nominees are Bush '87, Reagan '79 and McCain '07.
The straw poll winners who failed to gain the nomination are also revealing: Romney '07, Gramm '95 (who tied with Dole at the straw poll), Robertson '87 and Bush '79. The common trait is these all won the straw poll while standing below 10% support in the national polls at the time. McCain '07 with 16% poll support holds the record for lowest poll support of an eventual nominee, and he lost the straw poll.
Perhaps what is most revealing here is that the straw poll occasionally ratifies front runners, as it did with Bush in '99 and Dole in '95. But it often gives the nod to relatively weak candidates (from a national polling perspective) who command very modest public support. While attractive within the party, and effective at organizing in Iowa, these candidates had limited appeal in subsequent contests (or faced powerful opponents, as Bush '79 learned when taking his "big mo" against Reagan after Iowa).
If we plug in the current national polling numbers to the model for Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, we see that Bachmann is given little chance at the nomination, at least according to the model. Her predicted probability of winning the nomination, based on 13% in national polls and a straw poll win is .023, or 2.3%. (She has fluctuated in polling recently and fallen from her high point of the last month, so the current 13% may or may not adequately reflect her potential support. Her current trend estimate is actually lower, at 8.7%. All candidates in the model are measured by the same standard-the most recent available national poll taken before the straw poll.)
Rick Perry has, of course, only just entered the race so his polls may be highly variable. The latest put him at 17%, yielding an probability of nomination of .114, or 11.4%. Perry's polling has been rising rapidly with a trend estimate at 16.4, essentially the same as his latest poll.
Finally, Mitt Romney remains the polling front runner with 24%, giving him an estimated .363 probability of nomination. His trend has turned down recently and now stands at 19%.
Both Perry and Romney outpace McCain '07 at this point, but stand well behind Reagan '79 or Bush '87, two other straw poll losers, and far behind Dole '95 or Bush '99 who won the straw poll while also polling near or over 50%.
It is worth point out that national polls are no guarantee of success either. Ask Giuliani '07 or Dole '87.
The simple conclusion then is that there is no evidence that straw poll success increases the likelihood of winning the GOP presidential nomination. Strong polling among Republicans nationally is far more powerful, even if certainly not a guarantee.
If there is a straw poll effect it seems more likely to be short term and tactical rather than long term and of strategic value. Pawlenty has given up. Bachmann is and will be in the spotlight for a while. But the short term effects show little evidence of carrying over to long term success in the nomination chase.
(I find a slight improvement in prospects of winning the Iowa caucus among straw poll winners, which is consistent with Silver's finding based on percentage votes. But when predicting nomination success with a model similar to the one presented here, winning the Iowa caucus has no effect on nomination probability, once national poll standing is incorporated in the model.)
Non-geeks may want to stop here.
The longer answer is to notice how poor the data are for answering the question at all. The black line for winners has no cases along it from Bachmann at 13% to Dole at 48%. In contrast, the red line for losers is pretty well populated in this range. What that means statistically is we have no information for estimating the effect of winning the straw poll for anyone between 10% and 48% national support. The black line then is estimated based on the four winners who all stood below 10% and the two winners who were over 48%. (Bachmann doesn't count because we don't know the nominee yet, obviously.) It is the mathematical shape of the curve that provides the leverage for estimating the black line between 10% and 48%, and that is thin gruel indeed. The red line in contrast enjoys several cases in this range, and while it too has substantial uncertainty in outcomes it is far better grounded in data than is the curve for straw poll winners.
Given these limitations of data which the real world has provided, the best conclusion remains that we don't have any evidence that the straw poll provides a boost in likelihood of winning the nomination, once national polls are taken into account. Anecdotally, it is revealing to ponder the division between straw poll winners who are very low in national polls and winners who are very high in poll, with no one in between. It seems dark horses have a real shot in the straw poll, but not so much at the nomination.
P.S. And Joshua Tucker cuts to the chase without making it excessively complicated with just two bars
Posted by Dotty Lynch at 1:43 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles-franklin/why-ames-apparently-doesn_b_926809.html
ankil
Why Ames (Apparently) Doesn't Matter by Charles Franklin
After yesterday's excitement over the Ames straw poll, let's take a look at the history and consequences. With Tim Pawlenty's withdrawal today, it seems Ames does indeed matter, at least for negative consequences, and Michele Bachmann's appearances on Sunday morning shows also hints at the upside for visibility and seriousness.
Yesterday, Nate Silver of the New York Times, presented his analysis of why Ames matters. His approach is to link the Ames straw poll to performance in the Iowa caucuses, and the results show that the two are certainly correlated, whether or not they are causally connected. The results convince Silver that Ames is an important signal about a candidate's likely success in the caucuses.
But the caucus is only the first event of the nomination process and so an alternative approach is to focus on the brass ring: the nomination itself. Is there any evidence that performance in the Ames straw poll has an effect on winning the GOP presidential nomination?
The short answer is "no." And the longer answer is "beware of statistical analysis with very few cases".
The chart above shows the predicted probability of winning the nomination based on national polling in the month before the Ames straw poll and whether or not the candidate won the straw poll. There is a strong and statistically significant effect of national poll standing (which is why the curves rise rapidly to near certainty for those polling well). But the estimated effect for winning Ames is not statistically significant, and in fact is estimated to have a negative effect, if any at all. That is why the black line for winners is below the red line for losers. The best conclusion is "no effect at all."
In the figure, solid dots represent nominees while open circles are those who failed to gain the nomination. Straw poll winners who went on to secure the nomination (solid black dots) are Bush '99 and Dole '95. Straw poll losers (solid red dots) who became nominees are Bush '87, Reagan '79 and McCain '07.
The straw poll winners who failed to gain the nomination are also revealing: Romney '07, Gramm '95 (who tied with Dole at the straw poll), Robertson '87 and Bush '79. The common trait is these all won the straw poll while standing below 10% support in the national polls at the time. McCain '07 with 16% poll support holds the record for lowest poll support of an eventual nominee, and he lost the straw poll.
Perhaps what is most revealing here is that the straw poll occasionally ratifies front runners, as it did with Bush in '99 and Dole in '95. But it often gives the nod to relatively weak candidates (from a national polling perspective) who command very modest public support. While attractive within the party, and effective at organizing in Iowa, these candidates had limited appeal in subsequent contests (or faced powerful opponents, as Bush '79 learned when taking his "big mo" against Reagan after Iowa).
If we plug in the current national polling numbers to the model for Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, we see that Bachmann is given little chance at the nomination, at least according to the model. Her predicted probability of winning the nomination, based on 13% in national polls and a straw poll win is .023, or 2.3%. (She has fluctuated in polling recently and fallen from her high point of the last month, so the current 13% may or may not adequately reflect her potential support. Her current trend estimate is actually lower, at 8.7%. All candidates in the model are measured by the same standard-the most recent available national poll taken before the straw poll.)
Rick Perry has, of course, only just entered the race so his polls may be highly variable. The latest put him at 17%, yielding an probability of nomination of .114, or 11.4%. Perry's polling has been rising rapidly with a trend estimate at 16.4, essentially the same as his latest poll.
Finally, Mitt Romney remains the polling front runner with 24%, giving him an estimated .363 probability of nomination. His trend has turned down recently and now stands at 19%.
Both Perry and Romney outpace McCain '07 at this point, but stand well behind Reagan '79 or Bush '87, two other straw poll losers, and far behind Dole '95 or Bush '99 who won the straw poll while also polling near or over 50%.
It is worth point out that national polls are no guarantee of success either. Ask Giuliani '07 or Dole '87.
The simple conclusion then is that there is no evidence that straw poll success increases the likelihood of winning the GOP presidential nomination. Strong polling among Republicans nationally is far more powerful, even if certainly not a guarantee.
If there is a straw poll effect it seems more likely to be short term and tactical rather than long term and of strategic value. Pawlenty has given up. Bachmann is and will be in the spotlight for a while. But the short term effects show little evidence of carrying over to long term success in the nomination chase.
(I find a slight improvement in prospects of winning the Iowa caucus among straw poll winners, which is consistent with Silver's finding based on percentage votes. But when predicting nomination success with a model similar to the one presented here, winning the Iowa caucus has no effect on nomination probability, once national poll standing is incorporated in the model.)
Non-geeks may want to stop here.
The longer answer is to notice how poor the data are for answering the question at all. The black line for winners has no cases along it from Bachmann at 13% to Dole at 48%. In contrast, the red line for losers is pretty well populated in this range. What that means statistically is we have no information for estimating the effect of winning the straw poll for anyone between 10% and 48% national support. The black line then is estimated based on the four winners who all stood below 10% and the two winners who were over 48%. (Bachmann doesn't count because we don't know the nominee yet, obviously.) It is the mathematical shape of the curve that provides the leverage for estimating the black line between 10% and 48%, and that is thin gruel indeed. The red line in contrast enjoys several cases in this range, and while it too has substantial uncertainty in outcomes it is far better grounded in data than is the curve for straw poll winners.
Given these limitations of data which the real world has provided, the best conclusion remains that we don't have any evidence that the straw poll provides a boost in likelihood of winning the nomination, once national polls are taken into account. Anecdotally, it is revealing to ponder the division between straw poll winners who are very low in national polls and winners who are very high in poll, with no one in between. It seems dark horses have a real shot in the straw poll, but not so much at the nomination.
P.S. And Joshua Tucker cuts to the chase without making it excessively complicated with just two bars
Posted by Dotty Lynch at 1:43 PM
DEVIN DWYER: Obama Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low in Gallup Poll
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/08/obama-approval-rating-hits-all-time-low-in-gallup-poll-.html
Obama Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low in Gallup Poll
August 15, 2011 9:52 AM
PrintRSSShare:EmailMoreFarkTechnoratiGoogleLiveMy SpaceNewsvineRedditDeliciousMixxYahooABC News’ Devin Dwyer (@devindwyer) reports: President Obama’s approval rating has sunk to 39 percent in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, the lowest point of his presidency.
The survey, based on a three-day rolling average, also found that 54 percent of Americans disapprove of Obama’s job handling, a new high.
Battered by several weeks of bad economic news and a bruising debate over the debt ceiling, Obama sets out on an official bus tour through Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois later today aimed at selling his plan for economic growth, reclaiming the media spotlight that has been dominated by Republicans and building support among Midwest voters.
Recent state-by-state polling by Gallup found that Obama’s approval ratings in Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois are currently above the national average.
In Minnesota, 52 percent of voters approve of Obama’s job handling, while 49 percent approved in Iowa and 54 percent in Illinois, Gallup found. The national average for the first half of 2011 was 47 percent.
August 15, 2011 in Devin Dwyer, President Obama | Permalink | Share |
Obama Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low in Gallup Poll
August 15, 2011 9:52 AM
PrintRSSShare:EmailMoreFarkTechnoratiGoogleLiveMy SpaceNewsvineRedditDeliciousMixxYahooABC News’ Devin Dwyer (@devindwyer) reports: President Obama’s approval rating has sunk to 39 percent in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, the lowest point of his presidency.
The survey, based on a three-day rolling average, also found that 54 percent of Americans disapprove of Obama’s job handling, a new high.
Battered by several weeks of bad economic news and a bruising debate over the debt ceiling, Obama sets out on an official bus tour through Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois later today aimed at selling his plan for economic growth, reclaiming the media spotlight that has been dominated by Republicans and building support among Midwest voters.
Recent state-by-state polling by Gallup found that Obama’s approval ratings in Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois are currently above the national average.
In Minnesota, 52 percent of voters approve of Obama’s job handling, while 49 percent approved in Iowa and 54 percent in Illinois, Gallup found. The national average for the first half of 2011 was 47 percent.
August 15, 2011 in Devin Dwyer, President Obama | Permalink | Share |
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
ALEX ROARTY::Polls show Perry already resonating with voters
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43839119/ns/politics-decision_2012/
Polls show Perry already resonating with voters
Potential candidate ranks higher than majority of hopefuls already on campaign trail
Below:
x Rick Perry has yet to decide if he’s running for president. But two polls released this week indicate that if the Texas governor chooses to do so, he would enter the race better positioned than rivals who have campaigned for far longer.
The still-undeclared Perry — who has promised to make a decision in the next few weeks — received 11 percent of Republicans' support in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey of the GOP presidential field, trailing only Rep. Michele Bachmann and early primary front-runner Mitt Romney. Nine percent of GOP voters picked Perry as their second choice, according to the poll, tied for third highest.
..The results are good for Perry, and bad for two of his top potential opponents. The Texas governor’s totals dwarf those of ex-Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. Each of them, at one time considered among the most likely to win the party’s nomination, got the backing of just 2 percent of Republicans surveyed – meaning their combined support was less than half of Perry’s.
Story: Deep pockets back presidential hopeful Perry
A second poll released on Tuesday also showed a bright result for Perry. Gallup reported that Republicans who know the Texas governor hold an overwhelmingly positive view of him. Perry received a net positive intensity score – the measure of how many voters strongly approve of a candidate minus those who strongly disapprove — of 21 points. It was the same score as Bachmann’s, an indication that Perry's backers share the fervent support that has sparked the Minnesota House member's meteoric rise in recent polls.
Perry’s name identification still stood at just 55 percent, Gallup reported, well below rivals Romney, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. But it was the same percentage as Pawlenty's and higher than Huntsman's, whose name ID stands at only 41 percent.
..Perry possesses strong numbers even though he is not yet an official candidate and has considered entering the race only in recent months. Pawlenty, meanwhile, has been a de facto candidate most of the year, has been treated as one of the front-runners by most of the press, and has participated in both presidential debates. Huntsman has more of an excuse, having returned from China in the spring as U.S. ambassador there, but months on the campaign trail have yet to produce gains for him in most polls.
Pawlenty's and Huntsman's struggles should hearten Perry: If he runs, he will compete with the them to become the alternative to the front-running Romney. Poor showings from the two former governors could coalesce support of the anti-Romney vote behind Perry.
.
..Good showings in national polls, of course, don’t necessarily translate into success in the primaries. Perry’s support could come in large part from Republican voters who view the current crop of candidates as lackluster, as a recent Gallup poll found. The moment he declares a campaign is also the moment voters, not to mention the press and rival campaigns, will scrutinize him more closely.
Moreover, Pawlenty and Huntsman have had time to build organizations in early states and to collect supporters across the country – advantages that don't necessarily show in national polls but could play a key role as the early contests approach. Perry's political adviser, Dave Carney, indicated in an interview last week with National Journal that determining whether the governor can count on enough support from GOP officials across the country remains among the biggest obstacles to declaring a campaign.
At the time, Carney said that Perry remains on the fence about running even as he aggressively courts Republicans nationwide.
The article, "Polls show Perry already resonating with GOP voters," first appeared in the National Journal.
Polls show Perry already resonating with voters
Potential candidate ranks higher than majority of hopefuls already on campaign trail
Below:
x Rick Perry has yet to decide if he’s running for president. But two polls released this week indicate that if the Texas governor chooses to do so, he would enter the race better positioned than rivals who have campaigned for far longer.
The still-undeclared Perry — who has promised to make a decision in the next few weeks — received 11 percent of Republicans' support in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey of the GOP presidential field, trailing only Rep. Michele Bachmann and early primary front-runner Mitt Romney. Nine percent of GOP voters picked Perry as their second choice, according to the poll, tied for third highest.
..The results are good for Perry, and bad for two of his top potential opponents. The Texas governor’s totals dwarf those of ex-Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. Each of them, at one time considered among the most likely to win the party’s nomination, got the backing of just 2 percent of Republicans surveyed – meaning their combined support was less than half of Perry’s.
Story: Deep pockets back presidential hopeful Perry
A second poll released on Tuesday also showed a bright result for Perry. Gallup reported that Republicans who know the Texas governor hold an overwhelmingly positive view of him. Perry received a net positive intensity score – the measure of how many voters strongly approve of a candidate minus those who strongly disapprove — of 21 points. It was the same score as Bachmann’s, an indication that Perry's backers share the fervent support that has sparked the Minnesota House member's meteoric rise in recent polls.
Perry’s name identification still stood at just 55 percent, Gallup reported, well below rivals Romney, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. But it was the same percentage as Pawlenty's and higher than Huntsman's, whose name ID stands at only 41 percent.
..Perry possesses strong numbers even though he is not yet an official candidate and has considered entering the race only in recent months. Pawlenty, meanwhile, has been a de facto candidate most of the year, has been treated as one of the front-runners by most of the press, and has participated in both presidential debates. Huntsman has more of an excuse, having returned from China in the spring as U.S. ambassador there, but months on the campaign trail have yet to produce gains for him in most polls.
Pawlenty's and Huntsman's struggles should hearten Perry: If he runs, he will compete with the them to become the alternative to the front-running Romney. Poor showings from the two former governors could coalesce support of the anti-Romney vote behind Perry.
.
..Good showings in national polls, of course, don’t necessarily translate into success in the primaries. Perry’s support could come in large part from Republican voters who view the current crop of candidates as lackluster, as a recent Gallup poll found. The moment he declares a campaign is also the moment voters, not to mention the press and rival campaigns, will scrutinize him more closely.
Moreover, Pawlenty and Huntsman have had time to build organizations in early states and to collect supporters across the country – advantages that don't necessarily show in national polls but could play a key role as the early contests approach. Perry's political adviser, Dave Carney, indicated in an interview last week with National Journal that determining whether the governor can count on enough support from GOP officials across the country remains among the biggest obstacles to declaring a campaign.
At the time, Carney said that Perry remains on the fence about running even as he aggressively courts Republicans nationwide.
The article, "Polls show Perry already resonating with GOP voters," first appeared in the National Journal.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
ABDON PALLASCH: Cell Phones Throw Off Poll Takers
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/6070435-418/cell-phones-throw-off-poll-takers.html
By Abdon M. Pallasch Political Reporter apallasch@suntimes.com June 26, 2011 6:04PM
How do you accurately poll voters in an age when increasing numbers of them own only a cell phone?
“I worry about this more than anything else — you can have a California number and still be living in Iowa,” said Ann Selzer, the only pollster to predict Barack Obama would win the Iowa Caucuses by 7 percentage points. (He won by eight.)
This will complicate tracking not only the horse-race among Republican presidential candidates trudging through Iowa county fairs this summer, but also will challenge politicians of both parties trying to navigate Illinois’ newly redrawn congressional districts.
Two weeks ago, a poll of voters in the new Joliet-Aurora-based 11th Congressional District found former Rep. Bill Foster leading potential candidate John Atkinson 36 percent to 6 percent. The poll helped persuade Atkinson to drop his potential candidacy.
About 40 percent of Hispanic households have no landline — just a cell phone. About a quarter of white families have only a cell phone.
Polling only landlines means you get lots of older, white women. You disproportionately miss young voters and minorities.
That’s part of the reason all the polls before last year’s election for governor of Illinois had Republican Bill Brady beating Democrat Pat Quinn by five percentage points or more, said Quinn’s pollster, Mark Mellman.
“It’s the failure to reach cell phone people and the focus on people easier to reach,” Mellman said. “Every poll that I saw had Gov. Quinn losing. We had him winning very narrowly.”
Mellman was simultaneously assuring Quinn and U.S. Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada that they were going to win even though the public polls showed them losing.
One of the ironies of the current state of polling is that candidates often splurge for the more expensive and more accurate telephone interview polls while cash-strapped news organization often opt for the cheaper “robocall” polls.
With robocall polls, it’s not always clear who in the house is answering the phone.
All polls put the greatest weight on respondents who identify themselves as “likely voters.”
The key, Mellman said, is to remember that some “unlikely voters” also will make it to the polls.
While likely voters favored Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle over Reid, Mellman predicted about a fifth of the electorate would be unexpected voters, who put Reid over the top.
Likewise in Illinois, more casual voters who may not have cast ballots in every previous election helped give Quinn his razor-thin victory over Brady, as Mellman forecast.
In Iowa 3 1/2 years ago, Selzer awoke to a storm of controversy when her poll for the Des Moines Register showed newcomer Obama seven points ahead of the more seasoned John Edwards and Hillary Clinton campaigns, which led most of the polls.
“There was kind of this explosion,” Selzer said. “. . . and an e-mail blitz from the Clinton campaign and the Edwards campaign saying I should be fired and the poll should be ignored.”
Selzer’s controversial poll forecast an unheard of 59 percent of new attendees at the caucuses — voters inspired by Obama who had never caucused before inspired by Obama to make their maiden voyage to caucus.
“I had a call from one Democratic precinct captain who said, ‘I’ve always trusted your polls until now. But I’ve knocked on 99 doors and I don’t find this lurking Obama support you’re talking about,’ ” Selzer said. “I said, ‘Tell me about the doors you have knocked on.’ He said, ‘Registered Democrats and former caucus attenders.’ ”
I said, ‘Well, you’re not going to find the lurking Obama support there.’ [Other pollsters] were cutting that corner — they weren’t talking to independents.”
The challenge for all pollsters is to track down cell phone users. Selzer noted that some people port their old landline numbers to their cell phones so she gets some that way.
Gallup now includes 40 percent cell phones in all their national polls.
But in smaller races for, say, a congressional district, pollsters mostly have to guess at cell phone users’ views by extrapolating from younger, minority voters they reach at home.
Years ago pollsters used to have to knock on doors, and they may have to start doing that again.
Cheaper robocall polls always miss cell phone users because laws prohibit using computers to autodial cell phone numbers.
With Obama facing no primary challenge this time around, Selzer will be polling only Republicans and independents.
She’s not too worried about Democrats infiltrating Republican caucuses to push weak Republicans. “It would be hard to think they’re going to go caucus with [Minnesota Rep.] Michele Bachmann,” Selzer said of the Iowa-born Tea Party favorite. “If Sarah Palin were in, they’d definitely go in and do that.”
Many of the more conservative candidates think they can repeat Mike Huckabee’s success last time, but Selzer rejects the characterization of Iowa’s Republican caucuses as “Camp Christian” and predicts a moderate could win.
According to the Des Moines Register’s tracker, the candidates who’ve held the most events in Iowa so far are former U.S Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (55 events); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (53), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia (43.)
Selzer and Mellman were just a few of many of the nation’s top pollsters giving their assessment of the state of polling at an American University conference in Washington, D.C., last weekend.
By Abdon M. Pallasch Political Reporter apallasch@suntimes.com June 26, 2011 6:04PM
How do you accurately poll voters in an age when increasing numbers of them own only a cell phone?
“I worry about this more than anything else — you can have a California number and still be living in Iowa,” said Ann Selzer, the only pollster to predict Barack Obama would win the Iowa Caucuses by 7 percentage points. (He won by eight.)
This will complicate tracking not only the horse-race among Republican presidential candidates trudging through Iowa county fairs this summer, but also will challenge politicians of both parties trying to navigate Illinois’ newly redrawn congressional districts.
Two weeks ago, a poll of voters in the new Joliet-Aurora-based 11th Congressional District found former Rep. Bill Foster leading potential candidate John Atkinson 36 percent to 6 percent. The poll helped persuade Atkinson to drop his potential candidacy.
About 40 percent of Hispanic households have no landline — just a cell phone. About a quarter of white families have only a cell phone.
Polling only landlines means you get lots of older, white women. You disproportionately miss young voters and minorities.
That’s part of the reason all the polls before last year’s election for governor of Illinois had Republican Bill Brady beating Democrat Pat Quinn by five percentage points or more, said Quinn’s pollster, Mark Mellman.
“It’s the failure to reach cell phone people and the focus on people easier to reach,” Mellman said. “Every poll that I saw had Gov. Quinn losing. We had him winning very narrowly.”
Mellman was simultaneously assuring Quinn and U.S. Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada that they were going to win even though the public polls showed them losing.
One of the ironies of the current state of polling is that candidates often splurge for the more expensive and more accurate telephone interview polls while cash-strapped news organization often opt for the cheaper “robocall” polls.
With robocall polls, it’s not always clear who in the house is answering the phone.
All polls put the greatest weight on respondents who identify themselves as “likely voters.”
The key, Mellman said, is to remember that some “unlikely voters” also will make it to the polls.
While likely voters favored Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle over Reid, Mellman predicted about a fifth of the electorate would be unexpected voters, who put Reid over the top.
Likewise in Illinois, more casual voters who may not have cast ballots in every previous election helped give Quinn his razor-thin victory over Brady, as Mellman forecast.
In Iowa 3 1/2 years ago, Selzer awoke to a storm of controversy when her poll for the Des Moines Register showed newcomer Obama seven points ahead of the more seasoned John Edwards and Hillary Clinton campaigns, which led most of the polls.
“There was kind of this explosion,” Selzer said. “. . . and an e-mail blitz from the Clinton campaign and the Edwards campaign saying I should be fired and the poll should be ignored.”
Selzer’s controversial poll forecast an unheard of 59 percent of new attendees at the caucuses — voters inspired by Obama who had never caucused before inspired by Obama to make their maiden voyage to caucus.
“I had a call from one Democratic precinct captain who said, ‘I’ve always trusted your polls until now. But I’ve knocked on 99 doors and I don’t find this lurking Obama support you’re talking about,’ ” Selzer said. “I said, ‘Tell me about the doors you have knocked on.’ He said, ‘Registered Democrats and former caucus attenders.’ ”
I said, ‘Well, you’re not going to find the lurking Obama support there.’ [Other pollsters] were cutting that corner — they weren’t talking to independents.”
The challenge for all pollsters is to track down cell phone users. Selzer noted that some people port their old landline numbers to their cell phones so she gets some that way.
Gallup now includes 40 percent cell phones in all their national polls.
But in smaller races for, say, a congressional district, pollsters mostly have to guess at cell phone users’ views by extrapolating from younger, minority voters they reach at home.
Years ago pollsters used to have to knock on doors, and they may have to start doing that again.
Cheaper robocall polls always miss cell phone users because laws prohibit using computers to autodial cell phone numbers.
With Obama facing no primary challenge this time around, Selzer will be polling only Republicans and independents.
She’s not too worried about Democrats infiltrating Republican caucuses to push weak Republicans. “It would be hard to think they’re going to go caucus with [Minnesota Rep.] Michele Bachmann,” Selzer said of the Iowa-born Tea Party favorite. “If Sarah Palin were in, they’d definitely go in and do that.”
Many of the more conservative candidates think they can repeat Mike Huckabee’s success last time, but Selzer rejects the characterization of Iowa’s Republican caucuses as “Camp Christian” and predicts a moderate could win.
According to the Des Moines Register’s tracker, the candidates who’ve held the most events in Iowa so far are former U.S Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (55 events); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (53), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia (43.)
Selzer and Mellman were just a few of many of the nation’s top pollsters giving their assessment of the state of polling at an American University conference in Washington, D.C., last weekend.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
JENNIFER JACOBS:Iowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/03/iowa-poll-likely-gop-caucusgoers-are-educated-religious/
HomeOpinionCandidatesPhotosVideosCandidate calendarIssues comparison
sponsored byIowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious Jennifer Jacobs 12:01 AM, Jul 3, 2011Categories: Iowa Polls
Chief political writer
More posts by Jennifer Jacobs
Print Friendly
© 2011, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY
Likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers are a highly educated bunch who are not wildly out of step with the rest of America in their religious profile.
That’s the stereotype-bucking picture that emerges of those who will get the nation’s first crack at narrowing the Republican presidential field early next year, based on demographic statistics gleaned from a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken June 19 to 22 and four Iowa Polls from the 2008 caucus cycle.
Here’s what you might not know about this group:
- About half have a college degree or higher. That’s more than Iowa adults or Americans in general.
- The proportion who consider themselves born-again Christians hits in the high-40 percent range, slightly above the range for the nation.
- Mirroring the national picture, they’re more likely to be male, evidence of the classic gender gap between Republican and Democratic voters.
“This tells us what an activist caucusgoer is really like, and the stereotype of Iowans at the caucus is wrong,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.
“A lot of people who are not from Iowa think caucusgoers look like somebody out of a Grant Wood picture. Somebody in bib overalls with a pitchfork, and it’s not true. There are 3 million Iowans, and less than 80,000 of them are farmers,” Yepsen said.
Factors such as the high proportion with college degrees or post-graduate education make likely Republican caucusgoers different from the average Iowan or average American, he said, “but they’re similar to activist Republicans around the country.”
“These people are engaged, they’re motivated, they’re interested in public affairs, they follow politics,” said Yepsen, a former Register political reporter and columnist. “The strength of the caucus is that activists in this profile will look a lot like activists in other states. They look like the kinds of people who are on the floor of the Republican National Convention.”
Some characteristics hold true to long-witnessed patterns on caucus night: Likely caucusgoers tend to be older, in part reflecting Iowa’s overall age profile compared to the rest of America. Median age for likely Republican caucusgoers in recent polls tended to fall in the early 50s; it’s in the mid-40s for Iowans and Americans of voting age.
And, of course, likely Iowa caucusgoers are overwhelmingly white. Whites make up 92.9 percent of Iowa’s population, according to the 2010 census.
Opponents had long objected that Iowa’s overwhelmingly white population made the state unfit for the leadoff caucus role – until Iowa Democrats chose Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses. In the most recent Iowa Poll, likely Republican caucusgoers picked the only black candidate in a field of eight, Herman Cain, for third place.
Pollsters approach breaking down demographics, especially over a period of time, with an abundance of caution. Polls reflect opinions at a moment in time. The finer the breakdown of results, the greater the margin of error. And respondents can categorize themselves differently depending on how questions are asked.
The latest Iowa Poll first asked respondents how likely it would be that they would attend the Republican caucuses in February 2012. The poll was based on those who answered that they would definitely or probably attend.
The outcome on caucus night will hinge not only on how effectively candidates convey their messages but also on how well they turn out their supporters.
As the media spotlight intensifies on Iowa, more questions arise about who will be casting the votes that start the process of determining the Republican nominee.
About 120,000 Iowans participated in the 2008 Republican caucuses. Here’s a look at likely characteristics, based on recent Iowa Polls:
RELIGION
The proportion of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers who identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christians rests in the high-40 percent range, according to four polls in 2007 and the new June poll.
“I think too much is made out of the social conservatives and their influence in the Republican caucus process,” Yepsen said. “The party is a socially conservative party, but the majority are not born-agains.”
An oft-quoted figure to support the religious-right domination thesis is a 2008 entrance poll that found 60 percent of Iowa GOP caucusgoers thought of themselves as “born-again or evangelical Christian.”
The problem is that estimates of the number of born-again or evangelical Christians in the United States vary because pollsters ask the question in a variety of ways and Americans define the term differently, said Alan Cooperman, associate director of the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Not everyone who is an evangelical is a social conservative; some evangelicals consider themselves moderates or liberals.
In Pew Research Center polling, the percentage generally ranges from the high 30s to mid-40s, which means that roughly a third to half of adults nationally say they’re born-again or evangelical Christians, said Cooperman.
In the center’s polling so far in 2011, 42 percent of Christians say they are born-again or evangelical.
And here’s another factoid that defies the mindset that religious fervor disproportionately influences Iowa’s Republican caucuses: Iowa as a whole is in the middle of the pack in terms of religiosity, according to Pew’s findings.
According to the Pew Forum’s 2007 religious landscape survey, 51 percent of all adults in Iowa said religion is very important in their lives; the national average was 56 percent. New Hampshire and Vermont were at the bottom with 36 percent, and Sarah Palin’s Alaska was second from the bottom with 37 percent. Mississippi was at the top at 82 percent.
It’s likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa are most out of step with the national trend on identification as born-again Christians. Their percentage rests in the low 20 percent range.
EDUCATION
Both likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than Iowa adults as a whole or fellow Americans to have completed college or done post-graduate work.
The figure has been just about half for likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers. In contrast, among Iowans, 28 percent have at least a college degree, according to U.S. census data. Among Americans, it’s 30 percent.
Likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to have a high school education or less. But with both parties, the figure is significantly below the percentages of Iowans and Americans with a high school education or less. It’s not surprising to see higher rates of education and income among likely caucusgoers, since they’re among the most politically active voters, said Mark Blumenthal, polling editor for HuffPost Pollster.
INCOME
About 40 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers come from households earning $70,000 or more.
That’s a higher percentage than for typical Iowans and for likely Democratic caucusgoers. Likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to come from households with incomes less than $30,000.
“Republicans tend to have higher incomes than Democrats nationally, and higher incomes are correlated with more education,” Blumenthal said. Iowa household incomes trail the national average.
But the 40 percent figure for likely Republican caucusgoers with household incomes $70,000 and above is similar to the national rate, pollsters said.
SEX
The percentage of men who say they plan to attend the Republican caucuses lands in the mid-50 percent range, and the percentage of women the mid-40 percent. It’s the opposite for Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, where women hold the majority, in the high-50 percent range.
Pollsters see that gender gap among voters nationwide.
IDEOLOGY
In the latest Iowa Poll, 80 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers described themselves as conservative: 35 percent very conservative, and 45 percent mostly conservative. Fourteen percent described themselves as moderate, 5 percent liberal, and 1 percent not sure.
“GOP caucus voters do tend to be much more conservative than the electorate as a whole,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth. “Their ideology correlates with the differences you see in terms of higher income and education levels.”
So, who does this help?
Several pollsters said the demographics look promising for Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at this early point in the caucus cycle. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the poll with 23 percent support. Bachmann was right behind at 22 percent.
Bachmann is stronger than Romney among people who line up with some of the sweet spots of likely Republican caucusgoer demographics: She’s stronger with those ages 45 to 64 and with those who have a college degree. She does much better among those who describe themselves as very conservative. She leads, but it’s close among born-again respondents.
Romney, predictably, does better with more moderate respondents, including those who label themselves mostly conservative rather than very conservative – and the mostly conservative group outnumbered the very conservative in the poll. He also did better among those with household incomes of $70,000 or higher.
But, again, it’s early.
“If it snows heavily it could be a completely different turnout,” Republican pollster David Winston said. “You’re trying to put your finger on mercury a little bit.”
HomeOpinionCandidatesPhotosVideosCandidate calendarIssues comparison
sponsored byIowa Poll: Likely GOP caucusgoers are educated, religious Jennifer Jacobs 12:01 AM, Jul 3, 2011Categories: Iowa Polls
Chief political writer
More posts by Jennifer Jacobs
Print Friendly
© 2011, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY
Likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers are a highly educated bunch who are not wildly out of step with the rest of America in their religious profile.
That’s the stereotype-bucking picture that emerges of those who will get the nation’s first crack at narrowing the Republican presidential field early next year, based on demographic statistics gleaned from a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken June 19 to 22 and four Iowa Polls from the 2008 caucus cycle.
Here’s what you might not know about this group:
- About half have a college degree or higher. That’s more than Iowa adults or Americans in general.
- The proportion who consider themselves born-again Christians hits in the high-40 percent range, slightly above the range for the nation.
- Mirroring the national picture, they’re more likely to be male, evidence of the classic gender gap between Republican and Democratic voters.
“This tells us what an activist caucusgoer is really like, and the stereotype of Iowans at the caucus is wrong,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.
“A lot of people who are not from Iowa think caucusgoers look like somebody out of a Grant Wood picture. Somebody in bib overalls with a pitchfork, and it’s not true. There are 3 million Iowans, and less than 80,000 of them are farmers,” Yepsen said.
Factors such as the high proportion with college degrees or post-graduate education make likely Republican caucusgoers different from the average Iowan or average American, he said, “but they’re similar to activist Republicans around the country.”
“These people are engaged, they’re motivated, they’re interested in public affairs, they follow politics,” said Yepsen, a former Register political reporter and columnist. “The strength of the caucus is that activists in this profile will look a lot like activists in other states. They look like the kinds of people who are on the floor of the Republican National Convention.”
Some characteristics hold true to long-witnessed patterns on caucus night: Likely caucusgoers tend to be older, in part reflecting Iowa’s overall age profile compared to the rest of America. Median age for likely Republican caucusgoers in recent polls tended to fall in the early 50s; it’s in the mid-40s for Iowans and Americans of voting age.
And, of course, likely Iowa caucusgoers are overwhelmingly white. Whites make up 92.9 percent of Iowa’s population, according to the 2010 census.
Opponents had long objected that Iowa’s overwhelmingly white population made the state unfit for the leadoff caucus role – until Iowa Democrats chose Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses. In the most recent Iowa Poll, likely Republican caucusgoers picked the only black candidate in a field of eight, Herman Cain, for third place.
Pollsters approach breaking down demographics, especially over a period of time, with an abundance of caution. Polls reflect opinions at a moment in time. The finer the breakdown of results, the greater the margin of error. And respondents can categorize themselves differently depending on how questions are asked.
The latest Iowa Poll first asked respondents how likely it would be that they would attend the Republican caucuses in February 2012. The poll was based on those who answered that they would definitely or probably attend.
The outcome on caucus night will hinge not only on how effectively candidates convey their messages but also on how well they turn out their supporters.
As the media spotlight intensifies on Iowa, more questions arise about who will be casting the votes that start the process of determining the Republican nominee.
About 120,000 Iowans participated in the 2008 Republican caucuses. Here’s a look at likely characteristics, based on recent Iowa Polls:
RELIGION
The proportion of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers who identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christians rests in the high-40 percent range, according to four polls in 2007 and the new June poll.
“I think too much is made out of the social conservatives and their influence in the Republican caucus process,” Yepsen said. “The party is a socially conservative party, but the majority are not born-agains.”
An oft-quoted figure to support the religious-right domination thesis is a 2008 entrance poll that found 60 percent of Iowa GOP caucusgoers thought of themselves as “born-again or evangelical Christian.”
The problem is that estimates of the number of born-again or evangelical Christians in the United States vary because pollsters ask the question in a variety of ways and Americans define the term differently, said Alan Cooperman, associate director of the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Not everyone who is an evangelical is a social conservative; some evangelicals consider themselves moderates or liberals.
In Pew Research Center polling, the percentage generally ranges from the high 30s to mid-40s, which means that roughly a third to half of adults nationally say they’re born-again or evangelical Christians, said Cooperman.
In the center’s polling so far in 2011, 42 percent of Christians say they are born-again or evangelical.
And here’s another factoid that defies the mindset that religious fervor disproportionately influences Iowa’s Republican caucuses: Iowa as a whole is in the middle of the pack in terms of religiosity, according to Pew’s findings.
According to the Pew Forum’s 2007 religious landscape survey, 51 percent of all adults in Iowa said religion is very important in their lives; the national average was 56 percent. New Hampshire and Vermont were at the bottom with 36 percent, and Sarah Palin’s Alaska was second from the bottom with 37 percent. Mississippi was at the top at 82 percent.
It’s likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa are most out of step with the national trend on identification as born-again Christians. Their percentage rests in the low 20 percent range.
EDUCATION
Both likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than Iowa adults as a whole or fellow Americans to have completed college or done post-graduate work.
The figure has been just about half for likely Republican and likely Democratic caucusgoers. In contrast, among Iowans, 28 percent have at least a college degree, according to U.S. census data. Among Americans, it’s 30 percent.
Likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to have a high school education or less. But with both parties, the figure is significantly below the percentages of Iowans and Americans with a high school education or less. It’s not surprising to see higher rates of education and income among likely caucusgoers, since they’re among the most politically active voters, said Mark Blumenthal, polling editor for HuffPost Pollster.
INCOME
About 40 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers come from households earning $70,000 or more.
That’s a higher percentage than for typical Iowans and for likely Democratic caucusgoers. Likely Democratic caucusgoers are more likely than their Republican counterparts to come from households with incomes less than $30,000.
“Republicans tend to have higher incomes than Democrats nationally, and higher incomes are correlated with more education,” Blumenthal said. Iowa household incomes trail the national average.
But the 40 percent figure for likely Republican caucusgoers with household incomes $70,000 and above is similar to the national rate, pollsters said.
SEX
The percentage of men who say they plan to attend the Republican caucuses lands in the mid-50 percent range, and the percentage of women the mid-40 percent. It’s the opposite for Iowa Democratic caucusgoers, where women hold the majority, in the high-50 percent range.
Pollsters see that gender gap among voters nationwide.
IDEOLOGY
In the latest Iowa Poll, 80 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers described themselves as conservative: 35 percent very conservative, and 45 percent mostly conservative. Fourteen percent described themselves as moderate, 5 percent liberal, and 1 percent not sure.
“GOP caucus voters do tend to be much more conservative than the electorate as a whole,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth. “Their ideology correlates with the differences you see in terms of higher income and education levels.”
So, who does this help?
Several pollsters said the demographics look promising for Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at this early point in the caucus cycle. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the poll with 23 percent support. Bachmann was right behind at 22 percent.
Bachmann is stronger than Romney among people who line up with some of the sweet spots of likely Republican caucusgoer demographics: She’s stronger with those ages 45 to 64 and with those who have a college degree. She does much better among those who describe themselves as very conservative. She leads, but it’s close among born-again respondents.
Romney, predictably, does better with more moderate respondents, including those who label themselves mostly conservative rather than very conservative – and the mostly conservative group outnumbered the very conservative in the poll. He also did better among those with household incomes of $70,000 or higher.
But, again, it’s early.
“If it snows heavily it could be a completely different turnout,” Republican pollster David Winston said. “You’re trying to put your finger on mercury a little bit.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)